ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 3, 2024 | The Dregs Take Flight
The endgame inched closer to singularity last week with rigged rallies in stocks that had rightfully been given up for dead. There was the more than doubling in the price of Beyond Meat, for example. Until last week, shares of the veggie-burger upstart seemed content to scuddle sideways on a tortuous path to death. […]
March 3, 2024 | When Readers Speak
Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment. I’m fine, but it has been a bit tiring. So this week, I’m handing the keyboard to you, my intrepid and smart readers. This is easier than it used to be, thanks to […]
March 3, 2024 | Equity Outflows as Layoffs Rise and Baby Boomers Draw Down Savings
Looking beneath the glossy marketing of investment products and their promoters is essential to managing our savings prudently. In the discussion below, Mike Green explains the nuts and bolts of the current long-always system and how it threatens financial strength and stability. Individuals cannot afford to be oblivious. Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist […]
March 2, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 2, 2024
Key global stock indices surge to new highs; breadth at near record highs on “buy everything” sentiment The S&P hit new All-Time Highs again this week, up 16 of the last 18 weeks for a gain of ~1,000 points (25%) from the October 2023 lows. During this rally, the S&P market cap has increased ~$8 trillion, […]
March 2, 2024 | Markets Not Priced For Downturn in Real Estate
Historically, downcycles in real estate have led to the harshest economic downturns. This cycle is global and highly interconnected. Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chair and head of the investment group, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the ripple effects of China’s real estate issue on U.S. markets, which sectors would be most impacted, and more. […]
March 2, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 2nd 2024
The Bottom Line U.S. equity indices were mixed last week: S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index recorded small gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average recorded small losses.
March 1, 2024 | Chinese Capital Retreating From Foreign Realty Markets
Thirteen years of ‘easy money’ spurred debt complacency and a global credit boom that inflated asset prices, particularly real estate, worldwide. Now, higher rates are triggering the great unwind in a dash to reduce overhead and raise cash everywhere, all at once. Countries that saw the most significant influx of foreign investment and property appreciation- […]
March 1, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, March 2024
Obviously, we have to start with Google’s epic Gemini AI faceplant. It’s not often that a new product launch crashes a company’s stock, but this one shaved $96 billion from the parent company’s market cap in a single week. The responses to Gemini’s … um … lack of attention to historical detail, run the gamut from funny […]
March 1, 2024 | Warren Buffett is at a Crossroads
Berkshire Hathaway, the investment vehicle of Warren Buffett, reported results for 2023 and Buffett left investors with some pearls of wisdom in the accompanying letter to shareholders. As Warren Buffett explains, investing is not easy, but it is very rewarding, if good decisions are made more often than bad ones. But Buffett states that it […]
March 1, 2024 | Worst Monthly Spike of “Core Services” PCE Inflation in 22 Years, and Not Just Housing: Powell’s Gonna Have Another Cow
Over the past year or so, the Fed has been intensely discussing inflation in “core services,” which is where inflation had shifted to in 2022, from goods inflation which had spiked into mid-2022 but then cooled dramatically. So “core services” is where it’s at. Core services is where consumers spend the majority of their money. […]
February 29, 2024 | Commercial Real Estate Investors Cutting Losses
2024 is a big year for commercial real estate refinancing (US loans maturing by year graphed below, via Liz Ann Saunders). Interest rates, insurance, taxes and ongoing maintenance costs are on the rise as occupancy rates decline. Investors who bought and held when prices were high are now selling at huge discounts to cut their negative […]
February 29, 2024 | Why War is Inevitable & the Outcome
One of the basic rules of war is that you always keep two fronts going simultaneously. The first is the obvious battlefield. However, the second is communication. Suppose you DO NOT keep communication open through the back channels. In that case, there is NEVER the possibility of PEACE, and the war then becomes concluded only […]
February 28, 2024 | War & the ECM
QUESTION: You have been the only analyst who has been correct that there would be no recession that just about everyone had forecast for the last two years. A friend turned me on to you and said mainstream media will never quote you because you do not play by their rules. I had to present […]
February 28, 2024 | Insolvencies Leaping as Credit Demand Slumps
Business insolvencies are rising globally (chart below via The National Post), and Canada is seeing twice the G7 average. Canadian business insolvencies rose 35% quarter-over-quarter in the final quarter of 2023. They doubled compared with the same quarter in 2022 and were at the highest level in 13 years (Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy). The […]
February 28, 2024 | OPEC Discussing Extending Its Production Cuts For One More Quarter Lifts Crude Prices Modestly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US continues with some data showing a slowing economy but others indicating inflation reversings to the upside. This stagflation pivot is not what the bond and stock market want to see. Forecasters are now indicating that the first cut would occur in June only […]
February 28, 2024 | Recession Watch: Deficits And AI Versus The Real World
Two things are keeping the US economy afloat right now. First is massive deficit spending, as the US dumps about $2 trillion of borrowed money into the banking system each year: Second, the AI “instant bubble,” is sending huge amounts of capital into a handful of tech stocks, thus levitating the entire market. See the […]
February 27, 2024 | Unaffordable Homes are Dead Weight
Thirteen years of ultra-easy money (2009-2022) drove an epic malinvestment of resources on a global scale. Now, we are grappling with the weight of those choices. From here, there’s a lot of room to make wiser investments that will increase efficiency and free cash flow while reducing waste, especially around energy, housing, transportation and food. […]
February 27, 2024 | Getting To $100 Silver, Part 1: Rising Solar Demand, Stagnant Mine Supply
I visited a local coin shop last week to see what they had in stock. And the answer was…nothing. They had not a single silver bullion coin. How can a coin shop function without its most basic product? “Everyone wants to buy silver, and no one is selling,” explained the owner. So instead of maintaining […]
February 27, 2024 | NYC Trump’s Case is a Warning – Get the Hell Out of NYC
COMMENT: I have been considering the issues of whether the affirmative defense of qualified and other immunity defenses are or are not available to employees of states and cities if the complaint seeks only equitable relief and not money damages, and whether such defendants can avail themselves of the immunity defenses […]
February 27, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb 2024 Update: 20-City Index Drops for 2nd Month from Double-Top. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, San Diego
The overall home price index for the 20 metros that today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index covers declined by 0.6% from the prior month, the second month in a row of declines. The index formed a double-top with the first peak in June 2022 and the second peak in October 2023. The close-up of the […]
February 26, 2024 | Murder and Rape Legal for Lawless Migrants
Laken Riley was a 22-year-old student on the Dean’s List at the Augusta University’s College of Nursing in Athens, Georgia, with a bright future ahead of her. She went for a run on a popular trail during the day and never returned home. Her body was found discarded in the woods and investigators, Democrat […]
February 26, 2024 | Real Estate Leading Economic Stall
Some illuminating facts on the ground in this segment. Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht says regional banks have a “giant skeleton in the closet” when it comes to real estate loans. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Sternlicht also discusses the state of the real estate market and his support for presidential candidate Nikki Haley. Here […]
February 25, 2024 | IRS Told to Prepare to Shoot US Citizens
BREAKING: IRS official Alex Mena who works in “Criminal Investigations” says @IRSNews, ‘has no problem going after the small people, putting people in prison, and destroying people’s lives.’ Mena ‘doubts the constitutionality’ of his employer, the IRS, using AI to access… pic.twitter.com/KexsoTlMbz — James O’Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) February 21, 2024 The Internal Revenue Service is a […]
February 25, 2024 | The Fallacy of the Wall of Worry
So much for the wall of worry! Optimists and visionaries supposedly climb it while ignoring troublesome signs that leave most investors on the sidelines, paralyzed with fear. Last week, as soaring shares of Nvidia tugged stocks higher around the world, speculators swarmed the wall like cockroaches gorging themselves on dried beer, glue and animal feces. […]
February 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024
The most important stock in the world NVDA market cap soared >$300 Billion on Thursday (day session and aftermarket) to >$2 Trillion. This was the largest ever one-day market cap gain by an individual stock. The increase was equivalent to over TWICE the market cap of RBC, the largest stock on the TSE. The rally […]