ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 15, 2023 | The Federal Reserve Makes a Full Pivot To Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve announced a pivot to rate cuts, hinting at an end to the period since March 2022 of rate increases and tightening of financial conditions. When the Fed cuts rates, will it help? The Fed meeting ended on Wednesday with chair Jerome Powell confirming the consensus view — the next Fed move will […]
December 15, 2023 | Fed Holds Policy Rate at 22-year High–That’s The Good News
As expected, the US Fed did not hike yesterday and held its policy rate at a 22-year high while signalling rate cuts to start in 2024. Asset markets are jubilant across the board. Relief rallies are typical at the end of central bank hiking cycles. Optimism makes sense for government bonds, which become more valuable […]
December 14, 2023 | House Moves to Impeach Joe Biden
In a 221-212 vote, the House of Representatives voted on a resolution to produce a formal inquiry into the impeachment of Joe Biden. Every Republican supported the measure. Perhaps those in the middle had a change of heart after Biden invited Zelensky back to Washington to tell politicians how they should vote and spend […]
December 14, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Toronto -19% from Peak, back to Sept. 2021. Hamilton Area -25%, Back to Feb. 2021. New High in Calgary
Home prices in Canada dropped 1.7% in November from October, after having dropped by 1.6% in October from September, the fifth month in a row of month-to-month declines, according to the Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. These drops whittled down the year-over-year gain to […]
December 14, 2023 | No shame in seeking debt help
A generation of people has been devastated by monetary and fiscal policies aimed at ‘helping’ them to borrow financially suicidal sums for housing. Grave mistakes have been made, encouraged by many well-meaning family members, policy-makers and commissioned realtors and lenders. In many cases, costs will be impossible to sustain even as interest rates retreat because […]
December 14, 2023 | A Glimpse Of The Future For Gold/Silver Miners
One of the (many) disappointing things about the gold/silver miners has been their failure to respond when precious metals have gone up. Gold, though not exactly on fire for most of 2023, did touch a new all-time high in early December. But (as far as I know) not a single gold/silver miner was anywhere near […]
December 13, 2023 | Consumer Spending and Employment Downturn in 2024
Consumer spending drives some 58% of Canada’s economic growth and 68% in America, so when households are blindsided by higher carrying costs and deteriorating employment, financial weakness compounds through the economy to lower revenues for companies and governments. See more on the current US job cycle in ECRI, Unveiling the Cyclical Reality of Jobs Growth: Our […]
December 13, 2023 | Are We Too Dumb To Survive?
CBS News just conducted a poll that paints Americans as too economically illiterate to deserve a future of freedom and prosperity. Here’s how Tom Woods, author of Diary of a Psychosis: How Public Health Disgraced Itself During COVID Mania, addressed it in a recent mailing: Sometimes you look around and see signs of hope. And you’re not being […]
December 13, 2023 | Blue Cities Contemplate Mask Bans
Blue cities across the US are contemplating banning masks. A few years ago these cities would not allow people to enter public establishments without a mask. But now, after Soros-backed DAs blindfolded themselves to the drastic uptick in crime, cities such as Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York are banning face masks to prevent criminals from […]
December 12, 2023 | Javier Milei’s First Day in Office – Reduce the Size of Government
Argentina’s new President, Javier Milei, is making headlines around the world for vowing to radically change Argentina’s failing political system. Milei campaigned on implementing a “chainsaw plan” that would swiftly cut useless bureaus that drain government resources with no or minimal benefit to the public. Milei stuck to his campaign promises and slashed the number […]
December 12, 2023 | Recession Watch: Forget About That Soft Landing
Americans have spent the past few years putting ever-bigger parts of their day-to-day lives on plastic. And now the stats are brutal: Total credit card debt recently pierced $1 trillion while personal interest expense has gone parabolic. Credit card usage, as a result, has dropped back below pre-pandemic levels: Meanwhile, default rates on credit cards […]
December 12, 2023 | Yield Curve Screaming Bear Market in Process
The US yield curve’s last 17 months of inversion has been the second longest in history (2-10 curve inversion lengths shown below since 1941 courtesy of The Daily Shot). Ditto for Canada, where the 2s-10s curve has also been inverted since July 2022. Only four other times in history have seen this degree of inversion, […]
December 11, 2023 | Has Gates Unleashed a Virus to Now Kill our Dogs like He Wants to do with Cattle?
All of a sudden, there is now a MYSTERIOUS virus that is killing dogs for the first time EVER! Kennel Cough in dogs is a respiratory disease. The condition is considered to be highly contagious in dogs and produces a very dry cough. Generally, the condition makes it sound like your dog has something […]
December 11, 2023 | Strategic Relocation, Part 2: The “Big Sort”
A question is haunting the dwindling tribe of blue state conservatives: What happens when all their like-minded friends leave and the entire state becomes an impoverished, crime-ridden version of San Francisco? It seems that a growing number of people aren’t sticking around to find out. From today’s Zero Hedge: “Escape Liberal Hell”: Oregon, Washington Republicans Flee […]
December 11, 2023 | What Happened?
This article was written on Wednesday, December 6, 2023. Of course, I’m referring to the wild price ride in gold and silver from Fridays near all-time price high in gold, to Sunday evening’s initial blast to the upside of as much as $60, to a selloff of $120 and to where gold closed trading yesterday […]
December 11, 2023 | Markets Have Not Yet Priced New Normal of Slower Growth China
Our September 30, 2021, client letter “Shifting Foundations” highlighted the default of Chinese property developer Evergrande as a turning point in the real estate-centric China growth story with broad implications for the global economy: China’s property sector has been the largest driver of its economic growth over the past decade and a significant driver of global growth. […]
December 11, 2023 | For Better or for Worse
Happy Monday Morning! In last weeks note we highlighted the BC Governments passing of bill 44 which effectively stripped municipalities of their zoning power by eliminating single family zoning, and requiring high-density development next to transit. The magnitude of these changes should not be understated. This is perhaps the single largest housing policy change in the history […]
December 11, 2023 | American Wealth Declined in Q3
According to a recent Federal Reserve report, US household wealth experienced a significant decline in the third quarter, largely attributed to deep stock losses. The central bank’s report revealed that household net worth fell by approximately $1.3 trillion, or 0.9%, from July to September, amounting to $151 trillion. The decline was primarily driven by […]
December 10, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel, talking about the Bank of Canada rate decision, grocery prices and McDonald’s efforts to increase sales. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
December 10, 2023 | Fair Shares of Debt
Don’t Tax You. Don’t Tax Me. Tax That Fellow Behind the Tree – Attributed to Senator Russell B. Long, Louisiana ~1930s One thing you learn when writing about the debt problem, as I have been in recent weeks, is that many people think it’s not a problem at all. They believe we could easily balance […]
December 10, 2023 | This is Why the 2024 Election Will Never Be Accepted
The Democrats have not only schemed to try to prevent Trump from being on any ballot, but they have effectively forced RFK out of the Democratic Party. They have even been trying to block any other Democrat from being on any ballot. This is in-you-face anti-Democracy. The Neocons have the Democrats as their puppet, […]
December 10, 2023 | Why Liberals Dump Their Oldest Friends
[This essay originally appeared here in July 2022 and was written by a friend who spends a lot of time thinking outside the box. His provocative thesis is that that there is a physiological basis for our political differences; moreover, he notes, liberals cancel and ghost their conservative friends for reasons that are tied to […]
December 10, 2023 | Haves vs. Have-Nots in America
The U.S. is a country of extremes. Americans are the richest people in the developed world – but are also the poorest and most likely to go hungry. Data shows that only 10% of all Americans are able to beat inflation, taxation, and changing market conditions over time. Learning […]
December 9, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 9, 2023
Gold soars to All-Time High, then falls below last week’s low On Sunday evening, New York time (Monday morning Asian time), February Comex gold soared ~$60 within the first hour of trade to an All-Time High of ~$2,152. By mid-day Monday in New York, it was down ~$115 from the overnight highs; at Friday’s lows, it […]
December 9, 2023 | When Government Does Not Understand Something – Regulate It Until They Kill It
The golden rule of government is that whenever something new emerges – regulate it even when you do not understand what you are doing. While the details are not yet set, the EU wants to be the first to regulate AI. This new legislation requires foundation models such as ChatGPT and general-purpose AI systems […]