ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 10, 2024 | Bureau of Labor Statistics Fabricated One-Third of Newly Created Jobs in 2023
The US government consistently lies on their jobs reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency initially cheered at the 3,140,000 new positions created in 2023, but later revised the figure down to 443,000. But wait, the BLS made another miscalculation in March to the tune of 306,000 jobs. This means […]
January 10, 2024 | Financial Predation is Major Throughline
There are so many incredible developments in financial markets right now it isn’t easy to choose what to write about. And there are so many complex interconnections. Suffice it to say the throughlines are rampant financial fraud and unusually high capital risk, with very few people positioned to prosper in 2024. Just one area of […]
January 9, 2024 | Why We Should Not Blame the Federal Reserve
One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are […]
January 9, 2024 | Speculative Builds Adding To Deflationary Pressure in Real Estate
During the supply disruptions of the pandemic, stockpiling became an international obsession and warehouse space was in high demand. That’s reversing now. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US had 5.2% of warehouse space empty versus 4.7% in 2019. Construction doesn’t turn on a dime, though. Hundreds of millions of new square footage are […]
January 8, 2024 | Polish Trucker and Farmer Protests Nearing Resolution
Ukrainian goods are flooding into the European Union through neighboring nations and undermining business. Poland-Ukraine relations have turned sour in recent months as both truckers and farmers from the former believe EU regulations are favoring Ukraine’s economy over their own. Truckers in Poland began blocking four ports of entry from Ukraine in November. Polish […]
January 8, 2024 | Recession Alarm with No False Positives
There has never been an incidence in history where the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) had a six-month average growth rate sub -4.5%, and the US economy did not enter an NBER-defined recession. The six-month smoothed LEI growth rate in November was -7.5% (chart below since 2000, courtesy of ISABELNET.com) and has been […]
January 8, 2024 | Poetic Justice, Part 1: The Corporate Profit Squeeze
The past few years were — we were told — an emergency in which all had to sacrifice for the greater good. So how did corporate profits rise by $1 trillion during that same time? Charles Hugh Smith, whose excellent substack recently launched, just posted an explanation for this seemingly impossible (or at least counterintuitive) event. I’m […]
January 8, 2024 | The Fate of the Housing Market
Happy Monday Morning! We’re back after a two week hiatus, hope everyone had an enjoyable holidays. I’m back in the saddle and gearing up for what will surely be an entertaining year ahead. I have seen a plethora of predictions for 2024, from soft landings to no landings, rate hikes to rate cuts, and everything […]
January 7, 2024 | Advancing the Timeline of Economic Collapse
The stock market is so pumped with hubris, lies and delusions that I’m beginning to doubt whether the bull market will see Microsoft rally to $430 before everything comes crashing down. I’ve been using MSFT as a bellwether because it has been the strongest megacap stock in the world for the last four years, and […]
January 7, 2024 | Big Oil v. California
Chevron can no longer remain profitable in California, where politicians fail to understand the impact of reducing fossil fuels without a reliable alternative. The company has already pulled back hundreds of millions in spending in California over the past two years. Chevron’s Q4 filings proclaimed it needed non-cash write-downs and is expected to report non-cash […]
January 7, 2024 | A Muddle-Through Year
First, let me wish you the best for the new year. I look forward to exploring it with you. It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong. It turns out predictions are hard, especially those about the future (with […]
January 6, 2024 | Why Pfizer Should be Criminally Charged
Tucker Carlson: Bret Weinstein on the WHO’s plans for you ;
January 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 6, 2024
After closing higher for nine consecutive weeks and making new All-Time Highs, Nasdaq 100 futures took a “refreshing” pause to start the New Year The NAZ rallied ~60% in 2023, its best performance since the fabulous 1999 Dot.com days. (Veteran campaigners may remember that the NAZ rose an additional 30% by March 2000 but then […]
January 6, 2024 | The Epstein Interview
In this interview, you will hear the efforts of Jeffrey Epstein’s brother to get answers. During this interview, he was told that the doors were open. This is the hole. They throw you in there to cut off your communicates. When they went after my lawyers, suddenly, I was thrown into what the inmates call […]
January 6, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 6th 2024
The Bottom Line Time for a pause in performance by U.S. equity markets into mid-March, most notably by the tech heavy NASDAQ Index and related ETFs! Thereafter, look for strength to the end of 2024 supported by accelerating earnings gains and a history of rising U.S. indices during the fourth year of the U.S. Presidential […]
January 5, 2024 | Supreme Court to Decide if Trump Can Be Removed from Ballots
The Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether former President Donald Trump can be prevented from standing for president because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. This is fantastic news, for we need the Supreme Court to decide this question simply for the sanity of the nation. The Court acknowledged they need […]
January 5, 2024 | Financial Cycle Behavior is Consistent
In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the summer, and rebounded to double top at 1521 by September on soft-landing forecasts. What unfolded […]
January 4, 2024 | Home Listings Rise as Sales Stagnate
Rebounding Treasury bond prices have lowered mortgage rates from their cycle high in October, but home prices at current mortgage rates are still painfully unaffordable for most. The Bank of Canada estimates that 45% of Canadian homeowners saw their mortgage payments rise in 2023, and 50% of mortgages initiated before March 2022 will face higher […]
January 4, 2024 | The Truth About Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies – An Unpopular Analysis
“Could governments seize bitcoin?” That is a common question, and much to the dismay of many, my opinion does not match the typical analysis. I have lost clients due to my honesty regarding crypto. I understand many firmly believe that Bitcoin will one day become the alternative to the USD, but it is unwise […]
January 3, 2024 | FL Surgeon General Urges a Halt to COVID Vaccines
The truth is coming out about the vaccines in 2024. Those living in Florida may have received a notification this week from Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo’s office warning the public that the vaccination is not safe. The FDA warned Lapado last month that questioning the vaccine would be considered “misinformation,” but he ignored […]
January 3, 2024 | 2024 Starts Rough
Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]
January 3, 2024 | Recession Watch: Slightly Lower Interest Rates Will Make Zero Difference
GDP is still growing, home prices are still high, and the unemployment rate is still low. But under the surface, the bad numbers just keep coming: U.S. manufacturing sector shrinks for 14th straight month in December (MarketWatch) – The new-orders index fell 1.2 percentage points to 47.1 in December (below 50 indicates contraction). Prices fell […]
January 2, 2024 | What Will the Fed do in 2024?
Everyone wants to know what the Federal Reserve will do in 2024. Of course, people want to believe that the Fed will slash interest rates in the New Year. The pundits cling to every word except when, at the start of the month of December, Powell boldly criticized the Biden Administration, saying that […]
January 2, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, January 2024
In December, some prestigious universities made the (in retrospect) horrendous mistake of letting their presidents testify before Congress. The result was not pretty — except for meme creators, who had a field day: But the Ivy League’s public humiliation wasn’t the only novel thing to happen in a federal government building last month, as staffers were […]
January 1, 2024 | Rigging Elections Worldwide?
COMMENT: Finland’s Presidential Election The only opposition candidate in the Finnish presidential election, Paavo Väyrynen, was prevented from standing as a candidate by a hybrid operation in which the state-owned postal service routed the supporting cards sent to him to Estonia (and the cards were not found until the deadline had expired). Finland’s political […]