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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - This morning, weaker-than-expected US job creation in November adds to the growing list of negative economic surprises globally and reinforces the expectation that the Bank of Canada today and the US Fed next Wednesday will make no rate changes for the fifth consecutive meeting. Before this morning’s data, the futures market was pricing in 120 basis points […]

Juggling Dynamite - After 475 basis points (bps) of rate hikes between March 2022 and July 2023, Canada’s economy has ground to a halt, with economic activity contracting at a 1.1% annualized rate in the third quarter. Per capita, Canadian GDP has contracted for the past five quarters (below courtesy of RBC Economics). The rate of change matters most, and […]

Juggling Dynamite - Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed’s inflation fight, why he believes the Fed will hold rates steady again at its next policy meeting because ‘they just don’t know what to do’, and more. Here is a direct video link. 

Juggling Dynamite - Reminder: while equity bear markets typically start from full employment and an expanding economy, the bulk of cycle losses (81%) happen once recessions begin (blue bars below since 1933), when the unemployment rate is jumping, and central banks are slashing monetary conditions once more. Canada’s TSX has gone nowhere since June 2021, but propped up […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - If you can wait a year, some great opportunities coming up

November 29th, 2023 | Real Estate Cycle Hitting Hard

Juggling Dynamite - Each week, more people realize they have too much overhead and need to cut costs. Our family knows several people in all different age groups who bought or borrowed against real estate during the pandemic and are now trying to sell. It’s not going well. It is a very stressful, sad time, and I empathize […]

November 28th, 2023 | Where’s The Recession?

Juggling Dynamite -

Juggling Dynamite - As central banks resume easing in 2024, a bear market bottom should follow months later. Waiting for cyclical lows may feel challenging, but not waiting ends much worse. Here at the end of 2023, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago. […]

Juggling Dynamite - As we head into the most-harangued shopping weeks of the year, it is important to understand that spending patterns are strongly tied to the value of homes, particularly among the so-called upper-middle-class households (defined as income over 100k). Now that interest rates have normalized and home prices are falling, even those still fully employed are pulling back […]

Juggling Dynamite - The late, great zero interest rate era enabled the levered expansion of private equity (PE) firms, “rolling up” all manner of assets, including private businesses and professional practices. In areas like health care, where fiduciary duty is paramount, the profit-maximizing focus of PE raises some cause for concern. A lawsuit by the US Federal Trade […]

Juggling Dynamite -   Facts and analysis without the product-pumping sell-side spin–rare and valuable. The overview in this segment is worth a listen. The world has watched intently as the world’s most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history — on a % change over time basis. But […]

Juggling Dynamite - From 2000 to 2022, Canadian home prices increased 375% (an average of 17% annually, shown in red below), while the average Canadian wage (black line below) rose 3% per year. In the Greater Toronto and Vancouver Areas, where most of the population lives, median home prices rose 450% and 490%, respectively.     The mania escalated during the pandemic when prices in popular areas leapt 50% between the end […]

Juggling Dynamite - Higher interest rates have sharply increased carrying costs while lowering spending and investment through the economy. Both revenue and profit numbers are broadly in retreat and the urge to cut costs is intensifying. There will be a bottom in equity markets, but it has never come before central banks have resumed easing monetary conditions. Recessions, […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Real Estate, Equity and Credit Bubbles all set to burst

Juggling Dynamite - A flat October US CPI release yesterday inspired both equities and bonds to rally on a growing belief that inflation is decreasing, and the US and Canadian central banks, on hold since July, are done hiking policy rates this cycle. The most abrupt monetary tightening in many decades has thrown a ton of drag on heavily indebted […]

Juggling Dynamite - The University of Michigan Consumer Survey for November found a fresh low in spending intentions. Consumers citing interest rates as preventing them from buying an automobile (36%) and a home (67%) were the highest since the 1981 and 1982 recessions when the Fed funds rate was 12 and 10 percent, respectively, versus 5.5 percent today. […]

Juggling Dynamite - As WeWork filed for bankruptcy last week, billions in commercial real estate leases, loans and property values are up for price discovery. The discussion below connects some of the dots. Danielle DiMartino booth Joins The Replay Booth. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - This segment includes an articulate explanation of the yield curve inversion and its implications. I would add: it’s not just ‘normalizing’ interest rates that has sparked cardiac arrest through the economy, it’s the years of excessive credit creation that preceded it.  Now we have the take back phase. Campbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, […]

November 10th, 2023 | For Sale Inventory on the Rise

Juggling Dynamite - The four Ds drive real estate listings: death, divorce, default, and discretionary. The first three tend to trigger regardless of market conditions. ‘Discretionary’ and default listings tend to rise with interest rates– both are escalating now. Ted Oakley discusses real estate with property market expert Ivy Zelman.  Here is a direct video link.   For those who […]

Juggling Dynamite - US lubricant consumption has fallen to the lowest level in at least 42 years, according to Bloomberg Opinion calculations based on data from the Energy Information Administration and reflects a cyclical slowdown globally. See The Lube that Greases the World Economy Says Beware 2024: Wherever one looks, from Europe to the US to China to India, […]

Juggling Dynamite - This discussion offers insight into the origins of QE and what follows as fund flows reverse (QT). Richard Werner, Professor of Banking and Economics at the University of Oxford, regarded as the “Father of Quantitative Easing”, discusses the future of monetary policy. Here is a direct video link. Of course, it is not just quantitative tapering […]

November 7th, 2023 | Dash for Cash Intensifying

Juggling Dynamite - More than a decade of near-zero interest rates spawned a generation of bonkers financial decisions. Now, we are in the reveal and clean-up phase. Unlike fixed-term mortgages, other forms of credit quickly change with overnight policy rates set by central banks.  As shown below, since 1960, courtesy of the Daily Shot, non-mortgage interest payments now […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Bloomberg Radio to discuss the FOMC decision. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - A worthwhile review in this 1-hour segment. Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we’re facing an impending recession. Here is a direct video link.

HoweStreet.com Radio - China’s Real Estate crisis could easily spread here
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