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May 13, 2020 | Wisconsin Supreme Court Rules Lockdowns Are Illegal

The Wisconsin Supreme court tossed governor Gov. Tony Evers’ stay at home orders. In a 4-3 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, Wisconsin Now Without COVID-19 Restrictions. Conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ monthslong stay-at-home order in a ruling released Wednesday. The 4-3 decision marked the first time a state’s highest […]

May 11, 2020 | It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home

Home are priced for perfection and few can afford them. I expect prices to decline. The National Association of Realtors will not like this post, but home prices need to come down, and they will.Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, home prices were on a trend that was unlikely to continue for long. Median Home Price […]

May 6, 2020 | Job Losses by Size of Company: Who Lost the Jobs?

ADP reported a massive decline of over 20 million jobs. Let’s investigate losses by size of firm. Earlier today I commented ADP Reports 20 Million Jobs Lost: A Disaster Comparison Three WaysThis is a followup on losses and percentage losses by corporation size. Nonfarm Private Payrolls March 2020 Nonfarm Private Payrolls April 2020 Change in Nonfarm […]

May 3, 2020 | Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest

Homebuyer interest is down amdid rising concerns about seemingly everything. Can virtual tours, phone calls and video conferences replace the real thing?Point2Point conducted a survey of real estate agents and professionals nationwide to find out.So far, the answer is no as Real Estate Agents Assess the Post-Pandemic Future of Homebuying. The bulk of the agents who […]

May 2, 2020 | Spain Seeks Another Bailout as Deficit Skyrockets

Spain needs another rescue. Its deficit and debt violate Eurozone treaty rules. Deficit rule violation is across the board. At least Spain admits it.As translated from El Mundo, Spain Needs a New Era of Adjustment. In simple terms, Spain admits it needs another bailout. This is a Mish-modified translation. An economic collapse is underway. Spain officially […]

April 26, 2020 | Wave of Repossessions Coming as Subprime Auto Buyers Miss Payments

  Subprime car lenders report a sharp drop in auto loan payments. In a sign of upcoming trouble, Subprime Car Buyers Miss Loan Payments. Credit Acceptance Corp., the lender to car buyers with subprime credit scores, warned it’s seeing a sharp drop-off in payments as people shift their financial priorities to get through the coronavirus pandemic. […]

April 24, 2020 | Over 6% of All Mortgages Now in Forbearance

Mortgages in forbearance are on a steep rise due to Covid-19. Black Knight released the following points regarding mortgage forbearance. According to the Black Knight McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of April 23, 2020, more than 3.4 million homeowners – or 6.4% of all mortgages – have entered into COVID-19 mortgage forbearance plans This population represents $754 billion […]

April 23, 2020 | A Home Sales Crash is On the Way: Let’s Discuss the Impact

Existing home sales fell to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 5.27 million compared to an estimated 5.335 million SAAR. The lead chart is from the NAR. In March, single-family sales were down 8.1% and condominiums sales were down 11.7% compared to last month. Compared to a year ago. single-family home sales were up 1.3% while […]

April 20, 2020 | Crude Price Falls to -$40: Yes, Negative

There is nowhere to store the oil, but someone is obliged to take delivery. This is what happens when someone has to take delivery and no one wants to because there is nowhere to store the oil.Those who thought $1 was cheap, thought wrong. You now get paid as much as $40 to take delivery […]

April 17, 2020 | Illinois is Insolvent: State Requests a Pension Bailout From Congress

Illinois pension plans are in serious trouble. So serious, the states seeks a federal bailout. Cities are in trouble too! The president of the Illinois State Senate seeks $40 billion to help the pension system, fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities according to the New York Times. The letter, sent this week by State […]

April 16, 2020 | Housing Starts Plunge 22% and It Will Get Worse

Housing starts took a huge dive in March. April rates to be much worse. Economists at Econoday expected housing starts would fall to 1.35 million on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). That’s a decline of 15.6% from the February report of 1.599 million SAAR.Instead, starts fell to 1.216 million SAAR, a decline of 22.3% according […]

April 15, 2020 | Unprecedented Decline in Retail Sales and It Will Get Worse

A slew of economic reports came out today, all of them terrible. But the next set will be worse. Inquiring minds are investigating the Advancer Retail Sales Report for March 2020.Ten Highlights Total: -8.7% Motor Vehicles and Parts: -25.6% Furniture: -26.8% Food and Beverage Stores: +25.6% Gasoline: -17.2 Clothing Stores: -50.5% Sporting Goods Stores: -23.3% General Merchandise […]

April 14, 2020 | Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment

Michigan is one of the hardest hit states when it comes to Covid19 layoffs. Let’s take a look at the stats. Michigan Live reports Over 1 Million Michigan Residents Have Filed for Unemployment. More than 1 million people – over a quarter of Michigan’s workforce – have filed for unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, the state’s […]

April 11, 2020 | Retirement Math: Median Mortgage Debt for those Over 65 Has Quadrupled

The number of those age 65 and older and the size of their debt have risen. It’s the amount of debt that’s the killer. The new retirement problem is Over 60 With Decades Left on the Mortgage. A growing number of older Americans are carrying mortgage debt, and it will likely become more burdensome as the […]

April 10, 2020 | Rare Territory: Consumer Prices On the Decline

The CPI declined 0.4% month-over-month in March, with gasoline and energy leading the way. The BLS CPI report shows an event that is quote infrequent. A negative Core CPI. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since January 2015. The index for […]

April 8, 2020 | Everyone’s Guessing, Even the Fed: How Deep the Recession?

Fed minutes show “severely constrained” markets. Separately, the Richmond Fed president asks some interesting questions. Fed MinutesThe Minutes of the Latest FOMC Meeting are out. For a change they are interesting, and also very long. Eight Key Points Treasury market functioning was severely impaired. Market depth was extremely thin, and bid-ask spreads widened sharply. Financing conditions for […]

April 3, 2020 | Vehicle Sales Plunge by 5.5 Million Units, Most Since 1987

Motor vehicle sales plunged over 5.5 million units. On a unit basis this is more than any time since 1987. The 1987 stat is somewhat misleading because it was preceded by unprecedented surges.Total Vehicle Sales vs Lightweight Vehicle Sales​ Vehicle Sales Month Over Month On a month-over-month basis, sales fell 32.15%. On a percentage basis, […]

April 1, 2020 | Fed “Temporarily” Blesses More Leverage: What’s Really Going On?

With reserve requirements down to zero, the Fed has now reduced capital requirements on banks. Another Bazooka to NowhereIn yet another act of Fed desperation, Big Banks Get Blessing to Extend Leverage. To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the coronavirus and increase banking organizations’ ability to provide credit to households and businesses, the […]

March 25, 2020 | Retail Grinds to a Halt as 47,000 Stores Close

As stores shutter and business grinds to a halt, what are the store owners supposed to do? Bloomberg reports 47,000 U.S. Stores Closed in About a Week Over Coronavirus. In a little over a week, American retail ground to a near-total halt. More than 47,000 chain stores across the U.S. temporarily shut their doors in 10 […]

March 23, 2020 | Fed Fires Bazooka of New Unlimited Market Interventions, Gold Soars

The Fed fired an array of new market measures this morning. The Market rallied then had second thoughts. The Fed hopes to unclog corporate and municipal debt markets with its New Bazooka of Unlimited Interventions. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday rolled out an extraordinary new array of programs aimed at blunting the “severe disruptions” to […]

March 17, 2020 | $1,000 in Free Money Won’t Go Far

The hotel, airline, and travel-related industries are reeling. Marriott alone will lay off tens of thousands of workers. The Wall Street Journal reports Marriott Begins Furloughing Tens of Thousands of Employees. Marriott International Inc., the world’s largest hotel company with nearly 1.4 million rooms world-wide, said it is starting to furlough what it expects will be […]

March 13, 2020 | How Much Recession Warning Did You Expect?

How often have you heard the stock market looks a year ahead of a recession? Stock Market is Not Forward LookingA widespread myth persists that the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions, providing a year or more warning on average before one starts. Actually, the stock market is a coincident indicator of sentiment […]

March 6, 2020 | Crude Collapses Since Start of Year: A Credit Implosion Up Next

Crude extended it plunge today. For the year, it’s down 32.5%. Crude Last Six Months Credit Implosion Coming Up A lot of leveraged drillers and crude suppliers dependent on prices above $50 will see a credit implosion. That’s just a start. A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up. Deflationary Outcome As noted previously, […]

March 3, 2020 | Inversions Despite Surprise Cut: More Cuts Coming

This morning the Fed made an emergency 50 Basis point rate cut. More are coming. Note: The Effective Fed Funds Rate of 1.090 is my guess. The New York Fed will post it tomorrow.This morning I commented Fed Makes Surprise Inter-Meeting 50 Basis Point Rate Cut. Strong inversions and Fed Fund Futures were the key to […]

March 2, 2020 | Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake

The JP Morgan, Markit Global Manufacturing PMI signals a global recession. Global manufacturing suffers steepest contraction in over a decade as COVID-19 outbreak hits supply chains and demand according to Markit.Six Key Points Global Manufacturing PMI slumps to 47.2 Survey-record contraction in China; rest of the world stagnates on average Global trade falls at fastest pace […]

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