- the source for market opinions


November 25, 2020 | Technologies Of Freedom, Substack Edition

Imagine that you’re trying to do actual investigative journalism at, say, the New York Times or Fox, and you propose a story that threatens the interests of your outlet’s audience or advertisers. Chances are you’ll be shut down by your editors, if not fired and blacklisted for going beyond the boundaries of permissible reporting. Your […]

October 23, 2020 | This Is How A State Goes Bankrupt, Illinois Edition

Somewhere back in the depths of the 20th century, a bunch of governors, mayors, and public sector union leaders got together and cooked up one of history’s greatest financial scams. They would offer teachers, cops, and firefighters extremely generous pensions but would avoid raising taxes to fund the resulting future obligations. Grateful workers would vote […]

October 22, 2020 | One Table And Two Charts Show Why Stocks Are A Bad Place To Be

US stocks are behaving amazingly well given the political and economic near-chaos of the past few months. This is probably the first recession that inflated rather than popped financial asset bubbles. Why? Because panicked governments and central banks are dumping trillions of play-money dollars into the system, a big part of which flow directly into […]

October 9, 2020 | Well Played, Mr. President. Sorry To Have Doubted You

The political and financial worlds were baffled by President Trump’s decision, just hours after being released from the hospital, to suspend coronavirus stimulus bill negotiations “until after the election.” Leaving aside the stupidity of massive new borrowing and spending on top of the past year’s multi-trillions, walking away from those talks seemed like a really […]

October 6, 2020 | So No Stimulus Bill This Month … Really?

Less than 24 hours after beating the apparently wimpiest case of covid-19 ever, Donald Trump decided that his subjects’ lives aren’t exciting enough. So he called off Congressional talks on the latest stimulus bill. Never a dull moment in pre-apocalypse America. There’s just one problem: Virtually everyone from small businesses, to renters, to mortgage holders, […]

October 3, 2020 | Mainstream Investors About To Pile Into Gold

Money managers who don’t recommend gold to their clients are becoming the exception rather than the rule. This week saw a couple more big-name banks join the pro-gold parade: UBS advises investors to put money in gold as hedge against economic uncertainty (RT) – The recent weakness of gold represents a “great entry point for […]

September 23, 2020 | Here We Go Again: Precious Metals Edition

The game the government and the financial markets have been playing for the past few years – in which stocks tank until the Fed capitulates and agrees to cut interest rates and/or ramp up QE, after which markets soar  – is usually measured in stock price terms. In other words, the S&P 500 drops by […]

September 20, 2020 | Good News For A Change: Vertical Farm Edition

So this year sucks and next year might be even worse.  Buy gold and short tech stocks.  With that out of the way, let’s spend some time in the unfamiliar territory of things that are actually going right, with something called “vertical farming.” Here, very generally, is how it works: Go to, say, downtown Detroit […]

September 17, 2020 | Believe It Or Not, 2021 Is Looking Worse Than 2020

This year is, by any measure, brutal. First came a pandemic so baffling that virtually no one other than Sweden made it through without a near-depression. (Reminiscent of the previous decade’s financial crisis, when only Iceland got it right.) Then came civil unrest on a scale not seen since the 1960s, about which more than enough has […]

September 14, 2020 | Michael Pento: Overvalued Stocks Head Into The Bunker

  The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them. However, what it cannot do, […]

September 6, 2020 | Here We Go Again

For the past few years, the US financial system and the Fed have been playing a game of chicken in which the Fed tries to tighten (or at least stop easing) and the stock market behaves like an addict deprived of its heroin. In 2018, for instance, the Fed started raising interest rates and shrinking […]

August 30, 2020 | Warren Buffett Admits He Doesn’t Understand This Economy

Iconic investor Warren Buffett’s superpower is the ability to understand how companies work and tell which will generate the most and most consistent cash flow. This has (along with, yes, some recent gaming of the system) allowed him to make his investors rich beyond most of their wildest dreams. But the world we’re heading into […]

August 27, 2020 | Is California Over?

By now it’s painfully obvious that we humans tend to ruin our favorite places by overrunning them. And no place makes this point better than California. An absolute paradise 25 million people ago, parts of it are now a hellscape of Mad Maxian proportions. Consider: Rolling blackouts due in part to bad planning and in […]

August 20, 2020 | Will A Weak Dollar Bail Out Emerging Markets? Nope

Back in the simpler days of 2019, there was this (now completely forgotten) impending crisis in which emerging market countries’ dollar-denominated debt was going to blow up their – and by extension the rest of the world’s – economies. The short version of the story is that China, Brazil and some other up-and-comers decided to […]

August 11, 2020 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 31: Cities And States Are Bankrupt Without A Bailout

Lacking monetary printing presses, US cities and states tend to behave more like normal economic entities than do most nations. That is, they’re always balanced on the knife-edge of insolvency as taxes fail to cover the promises, legitimate and otherwise, that mayors and governors have made to voters. Toss in the covid-19 lockdowns and – […]

August 2, 2020 | Why So Many Cities Are Paralyzed

Sympathy for America’s big-city mayors and their allies is evaporating – generally for good reason. Portland and Seattle, for instance, seemed willing to give rioters a free hand before halfheartedly stepping in. And of course there’s the amazing quote from Chris Cuomo, the brother of New York’s Governor : “Please, show me where it says […]

July 31, 2020 | When It Rains It Pours, Florida Edition

Problems often come in bunches. And each new one adds — sometimes exponentially — to the complexity of a given situation. See One Problem Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be. The latest example of this unfortunate principle in action is the mess Florida might face in a few days. The state is already battling a […]

July 29, 2020 | Gold Goes Mainstream, New York Times Edition

There’s a stage in precious metals bull markets where even the least-interested mainstream media outlets feel compelled to acknowledge that something big is happening. This helps prolong the uptrend by bringing gold and silver to the attention of people who are either unaware of the metals as investments or aware but in need of convincing. […]

July 21, 2020 | Europe Bails Out Its Failed States with “Common” (i.e. German) Bonds

The “European Project” was designed with something like the current crisis in mind. The adoption of a common currency was just the first, politically easiest, step in a process that would eventually – its architects hoped – culminate in something like the United States, where a bunch of different geographic and cultural entities are subordinate […]

July 16, 2020 | Lawrence Lepard: Saved By The Printing Press — For Now

Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner with Equity Management Associates, just released a report that lays out the coming debt crisis in all its apocalyptic glory. The excerpt below is just a tiny fraction of the whole report, which should be read in its entirety by anyone who wonders about the fate of todays financial system. SAVED […]

July 7, 2020 | When It Rains It Pours, China Edition

The US has its share of problems right now (see One Crisis Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be). But China is right up there in the “when it rains it pours” sweepstakes. As the apparent source of the covid-19 pandemic, it’s still battling new cases and may yet be blamed for not just spawning the […]

July 5, 2020 | Look Where Gold Is Trading The Day After The 4th Of July

What are the odds of gold trading at 1776 on Independence Day weekend? Seems like a good omen … I’ll go out on a limb and predict that this is the last July 4th weekend where gold trades at or below this price.

July 4, 2020 | The Global Bond Market Is Turning Japanese, As All Long-Term Rates Plunge Towards Zero

For the bond markets, covid-19 is apparently a great equalizer. Before the pandemic, Japan’s long-term interest rates were much lower than those of most other countries’, in part because Japan has been deeply in debt – and therefore under pressure to finance that debt with low interest rates – longer than the US and Europe. […]

June 30, 2020 | Wouldn’t That Be Cool…

Take a world that’s spinning out of control with debt, money creation and pretty much every other measure of financial danger flashing red. Add the inevitable (given the above) precious metals bull market, with rising gold and silver taking the precious metals mining stocks – especially the little speculative ones – along for the ride. […]

June 27, 2020 | Stagflation Is Paradise For Gold And Silver

The creators of Medicare, Social Security, and other long-term spending programs had a handle on demographics – or at least on the political realities of the time – so they structured those programs to initially take in more money than they needed in order to build up “trust funds” to cover the eventual retirement of […]

Next Page »