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July 7, 2020 | When It Rains It Pours, China Edition

The US has its share of problems right now (see One Crisis Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be). But China is right up there in the “when it rains it pours” sweepstakes. As the apparent source of the covid-19 pandemic, it’s still battling new cases and may yet be blamed for not just spawning the […]

July 5, 2020 | Look Where Gold Is Trading The Day After The 4th Of July

What are the odds of gold trading at 1776 on Independence Day weekend? Seems like a good omen … I’ll go out on a limb and predict that this is the last July 4th weekend where gold trades at or below this price.

July 4, 2020 | The Global Bond Market Is Turning Japanese, As All Long-Term Rates Plunge Towards Zero

For the bond markets, covid-19 is apparently a great equalizer. Before the pandemic, Japan’s long-term interest rates were much lower than those of most other countries’, in part because Japan has been deeply in debt – and therefore under pressure to finance that debt with low interest rates – longer than the US and Europe. […]

June 30, 2020 | Wouldn’t That Be Cool…

Take a world that’s spinning out of control with debt, money creation and pretty much every other measure of financial danger flashing red. Add the inevitable (given the above) precious metals bull market, with rising gold and silver taking the precious metals mining stocks – especially the little speculative ones – along for the ride. […]

June 27, 2020 | Stagflation Is Paradise For Gold And Silver

The creators of Medicare, Social Security, and other long-term spending programs had a handle on demographics – or at least on the political realities of the time – so they structured those programs to initially take in more money than they needed in order to build up “trust funds” to cover the eventual retirement of […]

June 24, 2020 | We’ve Been Here Before – And It Ended With An Epic Crash

Wolf Richter just published some charts that, for anyone with a sense of stock market history, are pretty ominous. It seems that the major market indexes that recently soared back to record highs are being elevated by an amazingly small number of stocks – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook to be specific — which […]

June 22, 2020 | How Pension Funds Die, CalPERS Edition

Say you’re running a big pension fund that – according to the politicians who are handing out ultra-generous benefits to public sector employee voters – has to generate 7% annual returns in order to meet the resulting obligations. But the bonds you used to rely on now yield between 0% and 2%, depending on how […]

June 18, 2020 | One Crisis Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be

World War One was the most destructive conflict in human history. But before it ended, the Spanish flu came along and claimed an even greater number of victims. A decade later the Great Depression bankrupted millions. But before our grandparents could dig their way out, World War II dragged them into something even worse. Why […]

June 14, 2020 | What The Hell Is The Great Reset?

A friend just sent the following video, from someone named Spiro Skouras about something called the “Great Reset,” which the World Economic Forum (i.e., Davos) has just decided to impose on the rest of the global economy, using the “plandemic” as cover. The video’s title is The Great Reset Plan Revealed: How COVID Ushers In […]

June 13, 2020 | Doug Noland Explains Q1’s “Extraordinary” Debt Binge

Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland saves the rest of us a lot of time by digging through the Fed’s quarterly financial reports and presenting the results in an understandable form. These reports are always terrifying, but Q1 2020 is in a class of its own. Here, mostly in Noland’s words, are some of the highlights […]

June 4, 2020 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 31: California Makes Its Case For A Bailout

Just a few months ago, California was running surpluses and spreading the wealth around — at least to its affluent voters and public sector employees — as if the good times were here to stay. Fast forward to the present and it’s all over. Tech stock IPOs – a huge source of capital gains tax […]

May 29, 2020 | Who’s Getting The Biggest Bail-Out? Believe It Or Not, It’s The Gold Miners

With the exception of Amazon and Netflix, pretty much every big financial entity out there is lining up for a bailout. And governments everywhere are obliging. The European Union’s latest “relief” package totals nearly $1 trillion. Japan’s is even bigger, at $1.1 trillion. Even the Swiss National Bank is adding to its tech stock portfolio […]

May 22, 2020 | Why The Gold/Silver Ratio Is A Useful Indicator

There’s a debate in gold bug circles over whether the price difference between gold and silver – the gold/silver ratio – tells us anything useful. Some skeptics, for instance, view the original gold/silver ratio of 15 — from America’s 18th century bi-metallic system – as just a political number pulled more-or-less out of thin air by […]

May 16, 2020 | As Russiagate Morphs Into Obamagate, The Democrat Party Enters Civil War

Forget about Fox News and MSNBC. The really interesting stuff is happening outside the echo chambers, as progressive journalists declare war on the corporatist wing of the Democrat party. Among their beefs: The obsessive focus of the past three years on Russiagate and then Ukrainegate drained all the progressive energy that would otherwise have gone […]

May 13, 2020 | Marcel Arsenault: Beware The “Lazy W”

Real estate investor Marcel Arsenault has racked up Warren Buffett-scale profits over the past few credit cycles by loading up on “empty buildings” at the bottom, filling them with paying tenants, and then selling at the top. In a recent message to investors, he warns that the current market is especially tricky. Here’s an excerpt: […]

May 3, 2020 | Bankrupt Cities And States Get The National Disaster They’ve Been Hoping For

The people running states like New Jersey and cities like Chicago know they’re broke. Ridiculously generous public employee pensions – concocted by elected officials and union leaders who had to have understood that they were writing checks their taxpayers couldn’t cover – are bleeding them dry, with no political solution in sight. They also know […]

April 30, 2020 | Is The Government About To LBO The Private Sector?

So it’s early 2021 and we’ve bought back most of the extant Treasuries, a big chunk of investment-grade corporates and agency bonds, even a significant part of the junk market. And the damn economy is still flat on its back. Guess ten trillion dollars isn’t what it used to be! But giving up isn’t an […]

April 29, 2020 | Will Airbnb’s Implosion Trigger A Housing Bust?

It seemed like such a good idea at the time. Airbnbs were the next wave in hospitality, taking market share from hotels and motels and backed by a tech network that made running a virtual bed and breakfast fun and easy. So you borrow a bunch of money, buy a couple of houses, and put […]

April 27, 2020 | Lawrence Lepard: Global Margin Call For A Leveraged World

Lawrence Lepard, managing partner with Equity Management Associates, just published a quarterly report in which he explains — among many other things — why current US policy has created a “doom loop” and “a gold opportunity.” Here’s the summary page. For a PDF copy of the full 36-page report, email Lawrence at [email protected] FIRST QUARTER […]

April 26, 2020 | Finally, It Matters What The Fed Can And Can’t Print

Sound money advocates have been proclaiming that “the Fed can’t print gold” pretty much since the end of the last gold standard in 1971. But no one outside our little echo chamber paid attention, fixating instead on what the Fed could print: trillions of dollars that were perfectly fine for buying anything a creditworthy person […]

April 19, 2020 | Deep Recession + Boomer Downsizing = Plunging Home Prices

Harry Dent, a newsletter publisher who uses demographic trends to forecast market movements, believes that even before covid-19 blindsided the global economy, the US housing market was toast. From one of his recent interviews: Baby Boomers are now dying at unprecedented rates and will continue to do so into 2040. That takes the net demand […]

April 18, 2020 | Now Comes The Real Crazy

A recurring theme of modern financial crises is the “temporary” nature of the extreme steps governments take to fix the system. Recall that the massive increase in the Fed’s balance sheet during its Great Recession asset-buying binge (which is another way of saying “currency printing binge”) was going to be reversed out. But a funny […]

April 13, 2020 | What Happens When The Pandemic Ends?

Let’s assume that by the end of this year a combination of social distancing and some new and effective treatments convert covid-19 from existential threat to chronic nuisance and the economy starts to assume an air of normalcy. Which is to say that people go back to traveling and eating out and buying Chinese-made things […]

April 8, 2020 | The Housing Bust Will Take Longer This Time

Let’s start by sketching out a rough spectrum of the pandemic’s impact on major industries. At the hellish end of this spectrum is hospitality, where cruise ships, vacation resorts, and other crowd magnets have been rendered toxic and therefore useless overnight. Most of these companies will fail and their flagship assets will be repurposed or […]

April 1, 2020 | A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets

Pretend for a minute that it’s 2019 and you’re Brazil. Or maybe Turkey, your choice. You’ve got a lot of infrastructure to build if you want to keep your people happy, and to fund those projects you’ll need to borrow a lot of money. That’s not a problem, because borrowing is easy. The whole world […]

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