- the source for market opinions


March 28, 2020 | Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”

The Wall Street Journal just published the kind of article gold bugs dream of seeing in the mainstream press. Here’s an excerpt: Coronavirus Sparks a Global Gold Rush Epic shortage spooks doomsday preppers and bankers alike; ‘Unaffordium and unobtanium.’ It’s an honest-to-God doomsday scenario and the ultimate doomsday-prepper market is a mess. As the coronavirus […]

March 27, 2020 | Watch The Virus Checks Become Permanent Income

Two things about the coronavirus relief checks the government will soon start sending out: First, it looks like they’ll take a while to arrive: Show Me The Relief Money – No Promises On When Coronavirus Checks Are Coming About 90% of households — approximately 165 million — will benefit from direct payments, according to the […]

March 26, 2020 | Retirees Getting Screwed — One Last Time

To understand the impossible situation in which most retirees find themselves, let’s begin with interest rates. When governments raise or lower the cost of credit, they’re communicating with the rest of us. Higher interest rates send the message that “cash is more valuable, so save more and spend less.” Lower rates say the opposite: “Cash […]

March 23, 2020 | Michael Pento: Bond Market Crash Dead Ahead

  In his latest commentary, financial strategist Michael Pento maps out the coming year. Spoiler alert: It ends ugly. Debt Be Damned The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the […]

March 22, 2020 | Get Your Gold And Silver Now Before They’re All Gone — Oops, Too Late

Precious metals advocates have been warning for years that the time to load up on a safe haven asset is before it’s needed, because by the time it is obviously needed it won’t be available. That seemed a bit hyperbolic in a world of smoothly functioning markets and apparently infinite horizons of steady growth and […]

March 21, 2020 | Doug Noland: There’s No New Bubble Coming To Save Us

In this week’s Credit Bubble Bulletin, Doug Noland concludes that at long last the world’s governments have run out of new financial bubbles to inflate. The result: This time is different, in a very bad way. Here’s an excerpt from the much longer article, that should be read in its entirety. Please Don’t Completely Destroy… […]

March 18, 2020 | The Pandemic Invades The Developing World

One of the oddities of the coronavirus pandemic has been its apparent preference for rich countries. The reason is thought to be that most developing countries are in warmer climes, and viruses don’t spread as readily in heat and humidity (which is why flu season in the US begins in the Fall and ends in […]

March 13, 2020 | Feeling Adventurous? Consider Silver

Silver is getting crushed in the pandemic-driven flight to safety — which might have created one of those blood-in-the-streets opportunities that contrarian investors dream about. To understand why, lets start with the gold/silver ratio. The relationship between the prices of these two monetary metals tends to fluctuate within a wide band running from 20 to […]

March 12, 2020 | Here Comes The Torrent Of Free Money

Calling the world’s governments unprepared for Covid-19 is to laughably understate the case. They apparently hadn’t even considered the possibility of a pandemic shutting down the global economy, and had zero contingency plans for dealing with either the physical or financial impact. Now they’re making it up as they go along. Among the offers currently […]

March 10, 2020 | Great Times Coming For Gold Mining Stocks

Gold mining can be a terrible business. The metal’s price is volatile. Environmental and political risks are ever-present. And operating costs (especially energy) tend to rise even when gold’s price is falling. The result is a combination of low margins and high risk that causes most miners to consume more wealth than they produce. But […]

March 9, 2020 | Even The Best-Case Scenario Is Pretty Grim

Let’s say President Trump is right about the coronavirus “miraculously” fading away as temperatures rise in the Summer. Will things then go back to the old normal of globalization, free trade and finance-driven “growth”? Almost certainly not, because the psychological damage has already been done. Over the past couple of weeks the modern globalized economy […]

February 17, 2020 | Signs Of A Market Top, Part 2: Investors “Give Up Bargain Hunting,” Pile Into Big Tech

One of the last things to be tossed overboard in the late innings of a bull market is discrimination. Instead of comparing the valuations of different assets and buying relative bargains, investors (known in retrospect as “dumb money”) just pour cash into the things that have been going up. This gives those favored assets one […]

February 16, 2020 | Why You Shouldn’t Borrow Too Much Money, China Edition

When the US housing bubble burst in 2007, most observers were focused on the threat to Wall Street banks and their massive derivatives books. This was a legitimate fear, since the worst case scenarios involved the death of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, with all the stock market carnage that that implied. But for […]

February 13, 2020 | Poetic Justice Coming For The 1%

To understand just how grim the coming decade is likely to be for the world’s super-rich, let’s start with three premises: 1) Capitalist democracy — defined as free individuals managing their own property and periodically electing new leaders — is the only system of social organization that’s consistent with human nature and is, therefore, sustainable. […]

January 21, 2020 | Why A Flu Outbreak In China Can Spook Global Markets

When people talk about empires of the past, they generally mean Rome and Britain. But the biggest and in some ways most interesting empire was built and run by the Mongols in the 13th and 14th centuries. At its peak it stretched from China to Eastern Europe, which is more territory than Rome ever controlled. […]

January 15, 2020 | Gold Mining Stocks Broaden Their Appeal — With Dividends

No one interested in current income buys gold mining stocks because those stocks are traditionally all about capital gains. As ‘leveraged plays on the price of gold,’ the miners work this way: Let’s say gold is $1,000 per ounce and a hypothetical miner produces a million ounces annually, eking out a net profit of $10 […]

January 2, 2020 | This Is Great News For Gold

The 2010s were not kind to precious metals, in either nominal or relative terms. Gold and silver are down from their 2011 highs and waaayyy down versus equities and other favorite assets of the 1% like fine art and trophy real estate. But this imbalance has begun to reverse, in two ways. First, stocks have […]

December 30, 2019 | Different Acronyms, Same Disaster: Bond Ratings Are Once Again For Sale

Of all the amazing scenes in The Big Short, a film about the genesis of the Great Recession, arguably the most shocking is the meeting between a couple of hedge fund managers trying to understand the housing bubble and “Georgia,” a (in a bit of symbolic overkill) visually-impaired executive with the Standard & Poor’s bond […]

December 27, 2019 | Signs Of A 2020 Top: “Buyers Return to Riskiest Junk Bonds”

If you’re managing money and need positive results in the year ahead, you’re in a tough spot. Stocks are at levels that in the past have preceded cycle-ending crashes while high-grade bonds yield virtually nothing but could easily produce big capital losses if interest rates rise even a little. What do you do? Retire, if […]

December 24, 2019 | Housing Joins The Everything Bubble

When people tick off the components of the “everything bubble” they usually omit US housing, for a couple of reasons. First, bubbles don’t normally recur immediately in the same asset class, because memories of past carnage need to fade before investors can be seduced back into irrational optimism. Since housing was the epicenter of the […]

December 18, 2019 | Time To Sell The News?

Global stock (and bond and real estate) markets have been on a tear this year, apparently in anticipation of three big events. And last week they got them all, sort of: The US and China announced a “trade deal” that is flimsy but a deal nonetheless; the Fed promised to refrain from raising rates until […]

December 13, 2019 | The Parasite Devours Its Host, Part 2: French Pensions

Criticizing the “public sector” is tricky, because teachers, firefighters, cops and bus drivers are by-and-large great people doing hard things that benefit the rest of us. But there’s this problem, which is that once a country’s public sector grows beyond a certain size, it takes on a life of its own, demanding more resources even […]

December 11, 2019 | Really Bad Ideas, Part 8: Yield Curve Control And Mega-Stimulus

It’s been obvious for a while that the next phase of global monetary madness would be both spectacular and very different from the previous phase. The question was whether the difference would be in degree or kind. Now the answer is looking like “both.” Let’s start with “yield curve control,” in which central banks, instead […]

November 17, 2019 | Civil Unrest Is The New Normal Out There

This is getting ridiculous. Every few days another country blows up, as their citizens take to the streets with little warning and no apparent interest in a quick settlement. Here’s the first part of the “War…Civil Unrest” section of today’s links list. As you can see the peasants have grabbed their pitchforks and besieged […]

November 10, 2019 | As Solar Eats The Energy Sector, It’s Time To Revise The “Real Assets” List

In the energy market, there’s always a revolution going on somewhere. For most of human history, light and heat were provided by wood and candles. Then we discovered whale oil, and in the early 1800s lamps replaced candles. Later in that century, kerosene, a petroleum derivative, became the lamp oil of choice, and the whaling […]

Next Page »