- the source for market opinions


September 20, 2020 | Good News For A Change: Vertical Farm Edition

So this year sucks and next year might be even worse.  Buy gold and short tech stocks.  With that out of the way, let’s spend some time in the unfamiliar territory of things that are actually going right, with something called “vertical farming.” Here, very generally, is how it works: Go to, say, downtown Detroit […]

September 17, 2020 | Believe It Or Not, 2021 Is Looking Worse Than 2020

This year is, by any measure, brutal. First came a pandemic so baffling that virtually no one other than Sweden made it through without a near-depression. (Reminiscent of the previous decade’s financial crisis, when only Iceland got it right.) Then came civil unrest on a scale not seen since the 1960s, about which more than enough has […]

September 14, 2020 | Michael Pento: Overvalued Stocks Head Into The Bunker

  The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them. However, what it cannot do, […]

September 6, 2020 | Here We Go Again

For the past few years, the US financial system and the Fed have been playing a game of chicken in which the Fed tries to tighten (or at least stop easing) and the stock market behaves like an addict deprived of its heroin. In 2018, for instance, the Fed started raising interest rates and shrinking […]

August 30, 2020 | Warren Buffett Admits He Doesn’t Understand This Economy

Iconic investor Warren Buffett’s superpower is the ability to understand how companies work and tell which will generate the most and most consistent cash flow. This has (along with, yes, some recent gaming of the system) allowed him to make his investors rich beyond most of their wildest dreams. But the world we’re heading into […]

August 27, 2020 | Is California Over?

By now it’s painfully obvious that we humans tend to ruin our favorite places by overrunning them. And no place makes this point better than California. An absolute paradise 25 million people ago, parts of it are now a hellscape of Mad Maxian proportions. Consider: Rolling blackouts due in part to bad planning and in […]

August 20, 2020 | Will A Weak Dollar Bail Out Emerging Markets? Nope

Back in the simpler days of 2019, there was this (now completely forgotten) impending crisis in which emerging market countries’ dollar-denominated debt was going to blow up their – and by extension the rest of the world’s – economies. The short version of the story is that China, Brazil and some other up-and-comers decided to […]

August 11, 2020 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 31: Cities And States Are Bankrupt Without A Bailout

Lacking monetary printing presses, US cities and states tend to behave more like normal economic entities than do most nations. That is, they’re always balanced on the knife-edge of insolvency as taxes fail to cover the promises, legitimate and otherwise, that mayors and governors have made to voters. Toss in the covid-19 lockdowns and – […]

August 2, 2020 | Why So Many Cities Are Paralyzed

Sympathy for America’s big-city mayors and their allies is evaporating – generally for good reason. Portland and Seattle, for instance, seemed willing to give rioters a free hand before halfheartedly stepping in. And of course there’s the amazing quote from Chris Cuomo, the brother of New York’s Governor : “Please, show me where it says […]

July 31, 2020 | When It Rains It Pours, Florida Edition

Problems often come in bunches. And each new one adds — sometimes exponentially — to the complexity of a given situation. See One Problem Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be. The latest example of this unfortunate principle in action is the mess Florida might face in a few days. The state is already battling a […]

July 29, 2020 | Gold Goes Mainstream, New York Times Edition

There’s a stage in precious metals bull markets where even the least-interested mainstream media outlets feel compelled to acknowledge that something big is happening. This helps prolong the uptrend by bringing gold and silver to the attention of people who are either unaware of the metals as investments or aware but in need of convincing. […]

July 21, 2020 | Europe Bails Out Its Failed States with “Common” (i.e. German) Bonds

The “European Project” was designed with something like the current crisis in mind. The adoption of a common currency was just the first, politically easiest, step in a process that would eventually – its architects hoped – culminate in something like the United States, where a bunch of different geographic and cultural entities are subordinate […]

July 16, 2020 | Lawrence Lepard: Saved By The Printing Press — For Now

Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner with Equity Management Associates, just released a report that lays out the coming debt crisis in all its apocalyptic glory. The excerpt below is just a tiny fraction of the whole report, which should be read in its entirety by anyone who wonders about the fate of todays financial system. SAVED […]

July 7, 2020 | When It Rains It Pours, China Edition

The US has its share of problems right now (see One Crisis Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be). But China is right up there in the “when it rains it pours” sweepstakes. As the apparent source of the covid-19 pandemic, it’s still battling new cases and may yet be blamed for not just spawning the […]

July 5, 2020 | Look Where Gold Is Trading The Day After The 4th Of July

What are the odds of gold trading at 1776 on Independence Day weekend? Seems like a good omen … I’ll go out on a limb and predict that this is the last July 4th weekend where gold trades at or below this price.

July 4, 2020 | The Global Bond Market Is Turning Japanese, As All Long-Term Rates Plunge Towards Zero

For the bond markets, covid-19 is apparently a great equalizer. Before the pandemic, Japan’s long-term interest rates were much lower than those of most other countries’, in part because Japan has been deeply in debt – and therefore under pressure to finance that debt with low interest rates – longer than the US and Europe. […]

June 30, 2020 | Wouldn’t That Be Cool…

Take a world that’s spinning out of control with debt, money creation and pretty much every other measure of financial danger flashing red. Add the inevitable (given the above) precious metals bull market, with rising gold and silver taking the precious metals mining stocks – especially the little speculative ones – along for the ride. […]

June 27, 2020 | Stagflation Is Paradise For Gold And Silver

The creators of Medicare, Social Security, and other long-term spending programs had a handle on demographics – or at least on the political realities of the time – so they structured those programs to initially take in more money than they needed in order to build up “trust funds” to cover the eventual retirement of […]

June 24, 2020 | We’ve Been Here Before – And It Ended With An Epic Crash

Wolf Richter just published some charts that, for anyone with a sense of stock market history, are pretty ominous. It seems that the major market indexes that recently soared back to record highs are being elevated by an amazingly small number of stocks – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook to be specific — which […]

June 22, 2020 | How Pension Funds Die, CalPERS Edition

Say you’re running a big pension fund that – according to the politicians who are handing out ultra-generous benefits to public sector employee voters – has to generate 7% annual returns in order to meet the resulting obligations. But the bonds you used to rely on now yield between 0% and 2%, depending on how […]

June 18, 2020 | One Crisis Is Manageable. Five Might Not Be

World War One was the most destructive conflict in human history. But before it ended, the Spanish flu came along and claimed an even greater number of victims. A decade later the Great Depression bankrupted millions. But before our grandparents could dig their way out, World War II dragged them into something even worse. Why […]

June 14, 2020 | What The Hell Is The Great Reset?

A friend just sent the following video, from someone named Spiro Skouras about something called the “Great Reset,” which the World Economic Forum (i.e., Davos) has just decided to impose on the rest of the global economy, using the “plandemic” as cover. The video’s title is The Great Reset Plan Revealed: How COVID Ushers In […]

June 13, 2020 | Doug Noland Explains Q1’s “Extraordinary” Debt Binge

Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland saves the rest of us a lot of time by digging through the Fed’s quarterly financial reports and presenting the results in an understandable form. These reports are always terrifying, but Q1 2020 is in a class of its own. Here, mostly in Noland’s words, are some of the highlights […]

June 4, 2020 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 31: California Makes Its Case For A Bailout

Just a few months ago, California was running surpluses and spreading the wealth around — at least to its affluent voters and public sector employees — as if the good times were here to stay. Fast forward to the present and it’s all over. Tech stock IPOs – a huge source of capital gains tax […]

May 29, 2020 | Who’s Getting The Biggest Bail-Out? Believe It Or Not, It’s The Gold Miners

With the exception of Amazon and Netflix, pretty much every big financial entity out there is lining up for a bailout. And governments everywhere are obliging. The European Union’s latest “relief” package totals nearly $1 trillion. Japan’s is even bigger, at $1.1 trillion. Even the Swiss National Bank is adding to its tech stock portfolio […]

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