The low and high ticks in gold were reported by the CME Group as $1,800.10 and $1,819.00 in the February contract. The December/February price spread differential in gold at the close in New York yesterday was $12.60…February/ April $15.20 — and April/June was $15.40 an ounce.

Gold was closed in New York on Friday afternoon at $1,797.90 spot, up $8.40 on the day. Net volume was pretty light at a bit under 144,000 contracts — and there were just about 8,500 contracts worth of roll-over/switch volume on top of that…mostly into April and June.

And here’s Nick Laird’s 1-year Gold/Silver Ratio Chart, updated with this past week’s data and, as always, the Friday data point of 76.6 to 1 is not on it. Click to enlarge.

U.S. 10-year Treasury: 3.5670%…up 0.0760 (+2.18%)…as of 02:59 p.m. EST

Here’s the 5-year 10-year U.S. Treasury chart from the yahoo.com Internet site — and it puts the yield curve into a somewhat longer-term perspective. Click to enlarge.

Peñoles didn’t traded again yesterday, so the above index was computed based on the six silver mining companies that did.

Here’s Nick’s 1-year Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index chart, updated with Friday’s candle. Click to enlarge.

I checked at least a dozen silver and gold stocks…small, medium and large cap…and they all showed the exact same price pattern, hitting their highs of the day at or just after the highs in both gold and silver on Friday — and all were sold lower after that, with their respective declines picking up steam during the last hour or so of trading.

And, like the bizarre and totally counterintuitive price action in the precious metal shares over the last few days, especially the silver equities, I was amazed once again. It was very disappointing. It made absolute no sense to me — and I know it didn’t for you, either.

The fact that there were more than willing buyers for all these precious metal shares that were sold for whatever reason yesterday, is certainly no consolation.

These are certainly times that try men’s [and women’s ] souls, that’s for sure.

The new short report from the WSJ website yesterday evening showed that the short position in First Majestic Silver on the NYSE fell by another 5.52% to only 13.48 million shares, which represents 5.69% of the float.

The latest silver eye candy from the reddit.com/Wallstreetsilver crowd is linked here.

Here’s the weekly chart — and the stark underperformance of the precious metal shares is glaringly obvious…especially the silver stocks. Click to enlarge.

During the week just past, there was a net 166,000 troy ounces of gold removed — and a net 1.509 million troy ounces of silver was taken out as well. Click to enlarge for both.

That number in gold is down 488,000 troy ounces from last week, but in silver, that’s up 5.734 million troy ounces from a week ago, when it showed that 742,000 troy ounces of silver had been removed over the last four weeks. That big jump higher in silver was mainly because of the huge amount added three weeks ago.

In silver over the last four weeks…there was a net 1.881 million troy ounces added to COMEX inventories — and a net 1.657 million troy ounces was added to SLV. That left the remaining net 1.454 million troy ounces that was added to the rest of the world’s ETFs and mutual funds — and was mostly as a result of the 1.906 million troy ounces of silver added to SIVR during that time period.

That one heck of a reversal from just a week ago…but as I pointed out a few paragraphs ago, that’s mainly because of the addition made three weeks ago.

In gold over the last month, the withdrawals were also mostly JPMorgan-related at the COMEX…0.405 million troy ounces. GLD/GLDM accounted for only 0.064 million troy ounces — and the rest…0.171 million troy ounces, from the other gold ETFs and mutual funds.

It appears that we’ve turned the corner in silver — and it most likely won’t be long before the same happens in gold.

The physical shortage in silver at the both the wholesale and retail level continued this past week — and still shows no signs whatsoever of abating.  There also appears to be some serious physical tightness in gold at both these levels as well.

But, as you’re more than aware, this extraordinary demand in all forms has not yet been allowed to manifest itself in their respective prices, as the Big 4/8 commercial shorts are still sitting on them.

Of course not to be forgotten about SLV is this not so little matter of the 45.38 million shares currently sold short in this ETF. That’s down 9.24 million shares/ 17% as of yesterday’s short report. The reason that number remains stubbornly high is certainly because the physical metal doesn’t exist to deposit without driving the silver price to the moon. So instead of depositing the physical metal, the mostly one or two major authorized participants involved [according to Ted] are shorting the shares is lieu of that.

The next short report isn’t due out until December 27.

Then there’s still that other little matter of the 1-billion ounce short position held by Bank of America…with JPMorgan & Friends on the long side. Ted says it hasn’t gone away.

In silver, the Commercial short position increased by 3,265 COMEX contracts, or 16.33 million troy ounces of the stuff.

They arrived at that number by reducing their long position by 1,513 COMEX contracts — and also increased their short position by 1,752 contracts. It’s the sum of those two numbers that represents their change for the reporting week.

Under the hood in the Disaggregated COT Report, the Managed Money traders did virtually nothing, reducing their net long position by a paltry 255 contracts. The big activity was in the Other Reportables and Nonreportable/ small traders categories, where both increased their net long position…the former by 1,980 COMEX contracts — and the latter by 1,540 contracts.

Doing the math: 1,980 plus 1,540 minus 255 equals 3,265 COMEX contracts, the change in the Commercial net short position.

The Commercial net short position in silver [which no longer contains any Managed Money traders] now sits at 161.31 million troy ounces in Friday’s report. That’s up from the 144.99 million troy ounces that they were net short in this past Monday’s COT Report…an increase of 161.31-144.99=61.32 million troy ounces/3,264 COMEX contracts. That change is obviously the headline number mentioned further up, which it has to be…with the tiny difference being a rounding error.

The Big 8 shorts increased their short position to 63,362 COMEX contracts — and that’s up a tiny 672 contracts from the 62,690 contracts they were short in last Friday’s COT Report.

The Big 4 shorts increased their short position to 43,508 COMEX contracts, up 1,189 contracts from the 42,319 contracts they were short in last Friday’s Report.

That means that the Big ‘5 through 8’ shorts reduced their short position by 1,189-672=517 COMEX contracts during the reporting week. So the Big 4 shorts were sellers — and the Big ‘5 through 8’ were buyers.

This left Ted’s raptors, the 27 small commercial traders other than the Big 8 shorts, net long the COMEX futures market in silver by 31,100 COMEX contracts/155.5 million troy ounces…down about 2,600 contracts/13.0 million troy ounces…from the 33,700 contracts they were long in last Friday’s report.

This means, of course, that they sold those 2,600 contracts for big profits. But considering where we are at this point in the rally in silver, I’m surprised that there are the raptors are still long the amount that they are.

Here’s Nick’s 9-year COT chart for silver, updated with this week’s data points. Click to enlarge.

Add to that the fact that the Managed Money traders did next to nothing, means that the set up for a continuing rally in silver is very much intact from a COMEX futures market perspective, as things remain very bullish.

They arrived at that number by reducing their long position by 16,606 COMEX contracts, but also reduced their short position by 5,760 contracts — and it’s the difference between those two numbers that represents their change for the reporting week.

Under the hood in the Disaggregated COT Report, the Managed Money and Nonreportable/small traders were the big buyers during the reporting week, as the former increased their net long position by 8,767 COMEX contracts — and the latter increased theirs by a fairly hefty 5,724 contracts.

This means that the Other Reportables had to have been sellers during the reporting week — and they were, reducing their net long position by 3,645 COMEX contracts.

Doing the math: 8,767 plus 5,724 minus 3,645 equals 10,846 COMEX contracts, the change in the commercial net short position.

Remember, that like in silver, the commercial traders can only buy what the non-commercial and small traders are prepared to sell.

In last week’s COT Report, Ted was of the opinion that there’s still one Managed Money trader left in the Big 8 short category. But they would have been at the bottom end of the Big ‘5 through 8’ category…around 10,000 COMEX contracts worth.

However, when he looked at this week’s COT Report, that assumption turned out not to be the case at all. There were no Managed Money traders left in the Big 8 commercial category, so last week’s numbers were pure numbers — and for that reason, made a big difference in the raptor category last week and this week, which I’ll get into a bit further down.

The commercial net short position in gold now sits at 13.008 million troy ounces, which is up 1.085 million troy ounces from the 11.923 million troy ounces they were short in last Friday’s COT Report. That’s the headline number posted above, which it has to be.

The short position of the Big 8 traders worked out to 20.56 million troy ounces, up 0.52 million troy ounces from the 20.04 troy ounces they were short in last Friday’s COT Report.

The short position of the Big 4 traders is 12.33 million troy ounces…up 0.45 million troy ounces from the 11.88 million ounces that the Big 4 were short in Monday’s COT Report.

So that means that the short position of the Big ‘5 through 8′ traders increased by 0.52-0.45=0.07 million troy ounces…not a lot. Most of the commercial selling this past reporting week was by the Big 4 and Ted’s raptors.

In last Friday’ COT Report, the raptors showed being net long 81,000 COMEX contracts…which Ted thought was too high by 10,000 contracts because he was under the impression that there was still a Managed Money traders short that 10,000 contracts in the Big ‘5 through 8’ category. As it turned out, that assumption was not correct, as this week’s COT Report showed that there was no Managed Money trader in last week’s COT Report, so that 81,000 contract number was pure commercial traders.

Computing the raptor long position this week [the commercial net short position, minus the short position of the Big 8 traders] showed that Ted’s raptors were net long 75,500 COMEX contracts…down 5,500 contracts for the record high long position they held last Friday.

Make no mistake about it, those remaining 75,500 COMEX contracts that the raptors are long, is a huge amount for them to be long this far off gold’s low tick for this cycle — and a really big deal according to Ted. Why haven’t they — and the silver raptors, not sold long ago?

Although his raptors sold some contracts in both silver and gold during the reporting week, they’ve got a very long way to go before they’re back to market neutral…let alone going back on the short side.

Here’s the 9-month COT chart for gold, thanks to Nick Laird as always.  Click to enlarge.

Their respective rallies have a very long way to go…but the treachery of these big commercial shorts should never be overlooked as we continue higher.

In copper, the Managed Money traders increased their net long position by 2,845 COMEX contracts — and are still net long copper by 15,327 COMEX contracts…about 383 million pounds of the stuff. Copper continues to be a totally bifurcated market in the commercial category. The Producer/Merchants are still mega net short copper — and the Swap Dealers are still mega net long.

Whether these bifurcated markets mean anything or not, will only be known in the fullness of time. Ted says it doesn’t mean anything as far as he’s concerned, as they’re all commercial traders in the commercial category.

In this vital industrial commodity, the world’s banks…both U.S. and foreign… are net long 12.4 percent of the total open interest in copper in the COMEX futures market as of yesterday’s Bank Participation Report…up from the 9.9 percent they were net long in November’s. At the moment it’s the commodity trading houses such as Glencore et al., along with some hedge funds, that are mega net short copper in the Producer/Merchant category. The Swap/Dealers are mega net long.

I consider this to be the most important chart that shows up in the COT series — and it always deserves a moment of your time — and Ted says that there are no Managed Money traders left in the Big 8 commercial category, so this weeks numbers in silver are accurate for the second week in a row.

That 147 days that the Big 8 traders are short, represents a bit under 5 months of world silver production, or 316.81 million troy ounces/63,362 COMEX contracts of paper silver held short by these eight commercial traders.

Ted said that his raptors, the 27 small commercial traders other than the Big 8 commercial shorts, are net long silver by 155.5 million troy ounces…down 13.0 million troy ounces from last Friday’s COT Report.

In gold, the Big 4 are short 41 days of world gold production, up 1 day from the last COT Report. The ‘5 through 8’ are short 28 days of world production, also up 1 day from last Friday’s report…for a total of 69 days of world gold production held short by the Big 8 — and obviously up 2 days from the prior COT Report.

Ted says that there are no Managed Money traders left in the Big 8 short category, so the above numbers are accurate.

The Big 8 traders are short 51.7 percent of the entire open interest in silver in the COMEX futures market, which is exactly unchanged from what they were short in last Friday’s COT report. And once whatever market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out, that percentage would be something over the 55 percent mark. In gold, it’s 48.7 percent of the total COMEX open interest that the Big 8 are short, up a bit from the 46.2 percent they were short in the prior COT Report — and something close to the 55 percent mark once their market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out.

I’ll continue to remind you that Ted is still of the opinion that Bank of America is short about one billion ounces of silver in the OTC market, courtesy of JPMorgan & Friends. Goldman Sachs also has a derivatives position in silver in that market. They’ve increased it even more in the latest OCC Report for Q2/2022…which Ted figures is a long position. And not to be forgotten is the 45.38 million troy ounce short position in SLV…as of yesterday’s short report.

The situation regarding the Big 4/8 concentrated commercial short positions in silver and gold is still obscene — and is now worse than it was in silver back on March 8 when the nickel contract blew up on the LME — and both of these precious metals hit their highs of the year. But on the other side of the Big 8 short coin are Ted’s raptors…the small commercial traders other than the Big 8 shorts. They’re still net long silver by 31,100 COMEX contracts — and net long gold by around 75,500 contracts…as of yesterday’s COT Report.

As Ted has been pointing out ad nauseam forever, the resolution of the Big 4/8 short positions will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward.

And, as always, nothing else matters — and that should now be obvious to all by now, except the willfully blind, of course…plus those whose so-called reputations and careers depend upon them not seeing it…as I also said in this spot last week.

Ted had a lot to say about this in his latest commentary in the public domain ten days ago, which is headlined “Closer, But Still No Cigar” — and linked here. If you haven’t read it, you should — and if you have already, a second reading wouldn’t hurt.

And I know from our conversation on the phone yesterday, that he has something very important to say about the Big 4 short positions in both silver and gold — and I’m certainly looking forward to reading all about it. I already know what it is, but can’t divulge it.

For this one day a month we get to see what the world’s banks have been up to in the precious metals. They’re usually up to quite a bit — and they certainly were again last month.

[The December Bank Participation Report covers the time period from November 1 to December 6 inclusive…five reporting weeks, not the usual four.]

In gold, 5 U.S. banks are net short 51,071 COMEX contracts in the December BPR. In November’s Bank Participation Report [BPR] these same 5 U.S. banks were net short 38,100 contracts, so there was an increase of 12,971 COMEX contracts month-over-month. These U.S. banks haven’t been this short gold since June’s BPR…which was for May.

Citigroup, HSBC USA, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley would most likely be the U.S. banks that are short this amount of gold…plus one other…maybe Goldman. I still have my usual suspicions about the Exchange Stabilization Fund, although if they’re involved, they are most likely just backstopping these banks if they get to the ‘too big to fail’ stage over this.

Also in gold, 23 non-U.S. banks are net short 30,693 COMEX gold contracts. In November’s BPR, 24 non-U.S. banks were net short 26,626 contracts, which is not a huge number for them…an increase of 4,067 contracts.

At the low back in the August 2018 BPR…these same non-U.S. banks held a net short position in gold of only 1,960 contacts — so they’ve been back on the short side in an enormous way ever since.

I suspect that there are at least four large banks in this group, HSBC, Barclays and Standard Chartered and also BNP Paribas. I still harbour suspicions about Scotiabank/Scotia Capital, Dutch Bank ABN Amro — and Australia’s Macquarie Futures. Other than that small handful, the short positions in gold held by the vast majority of non-U.S. banks are immaterial and, like in silver, have always been so.

As of this Bank Participation Report, 28 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 19.3 percent of the entire open interest in gold in the COMEX futures market, which is up a bit from the 13.9 percent that 29 banks were net short in the November BPR.

Although the largest U.S. and foreign bullion banks dominate the Big 4/8 short category in gold, there are some hedge fund/trading houses that are short grotesque amounts of gold as well.

Here’s Nick’s BPR chart for gold going back to 2000. Charts #4 and #5 are the key ones here. Note the blow-out in the short positions of the non-U.S. banks [the blue bars in chart #4] when Scotiabank’s COMEX short position was outed by the CFTC in October of 2012. Click to enlarge.

The biggest short holders in silver of the five U.S. banks in total, would be Citigroup, HSBC USA, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley…and maybe Goldman Sachs. And, like in gold, I have my suspicions about the Exchange Stabilization Fund’s role in all this…although, also like in gold, not directly.

Also in silver, 16 non-U.S. banks are net short 17,503 COMEX contracts in the December BPR…which is up 2,606 contracts from the 13,858 contracts that 16 non-U.S. banks were net short in the November BPR.

I would suspect that HSBC and Barclays hold a goodly chunk of the short position of these non-U.S. banks…plus some by Canada’s Scotiabank/Scotia Capital still. I’m not sure about Deutsche Bank… but now suspect Australia’s Macquarie Futures. I’m also of the opinion that a number of the remaining non-U.S. banks may actually be net long the COMEX futures market in silver.  But even if they aren’t, the remaining short positions divided up between the other 12 or so non-U.S. banks are immaterial — and have always been so.

As of December’s Bank Participation Report, 21 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 36.1 percent of the entire open interest in the COMEX futures market in silver — up a very decent amount from the 25.6 percent that 21 banks were net short in the November BPR. And much, much more than the lion’s share of that is held by Citigroup, HSBC, Bank of America, Barclays, Scotiabank — and possibly one other non-U.S. bank…all of which are card-carrying members of the Big 8 shorts.

I’ll point out here that Goldman Sachs, up until late last year, had no derivatives in the COMEX futures market in any of the four precious metals.  But they did show up in the last three OCC Reports. Ted thinks they’re long silver in the OTC market. I shan’t bother talking about the 1 billion troy ounce short position that Bank of America is short in the OTC market…thanks to JPMorgan & Friends, as I’ve already covered that ground further up.

Here’s the BPR chart for silver. Note in Chart #4 the blow-out in the non-U.S. bank short position [blue bars] in October of 2012 when Scotiabank was brought in from the cold. Also note August 2008 when JPMorgan took over the silver short position of Bear Stearns—the red bars. It’s very noticeable in Chart #4—and really stands out like the proverbial sore thumb it is in chart #5. But, according to Ted, as of March 2020…they’re out of their short positions, not only in silver, but the other three precious metals as well. Click to enlarge.

At the ‘low’ back in September of 2018, these U.S. banks were actually net long the platinum market by 2,573 contracts. So they have a very long way to go to get back to just market neutral in platinum…if they ever intend to, that is.

Also in platinum, 15 non-U.S. banks are net short 4,673 COMEX contracts in the December BPR, which is up 1,682 contracts from the 2,991 contracts that 17 non-U.S. banks were net short in the November BPR. These non-U.S. banks haven’t been this short platinum since June 2021 — and I certainly don’t like the trend.

And as of December’s Bank Participation Report, 20 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 33.9 percent of platinum’s total open interest in the COMEX futures market, which is up from the 32.7 percent that 21 banks were net short in November’s BPR.

So the higher the platinum price has risen, the more the world’s bullion banks have been going short over the last few months.

But it’s the U.S. banks that are on the short hook big time — and the real price managers. They have little chance of delivering into their short positions, although a very large number of platinum contracts have already been delivered during the last few years. But that fact, like in both silver and gold, has made no difference whatsoever to their paper short positions. The situation for them [the U.S. banks] in this precious metal is as almost as equally dire in the COMEX futures market as it is with the other two precious metals…silver and gold…particularly the former.

Platinum remains the Big commercial shorts’ No. 2 problem child after silver. How it will ultimately be resolved is unknown, but most likely in a paper short squeeze, as the known stocks of platinum are minuscule compared to the size of the short positions held — and that’s just the short positions of the world’s banks I’m talking about here.

Here’s the Bank Participation Report chart for platinum. Click to enlarge.

Also in palladium, 11 non-U.S. banks are net long 215 COMEX contracts in the December BPR, up 240 contracts from the 35 contracts that 9 non-U.S. banks were net short in November.

These palladium numbers held by the bullion banks of the world are meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

As I’ve been commenting on for almost forever, the COMEX futures market in palladium is a market in name only, because it’s so illiquid and thinly-traded.

Its total open interest in yesterday’s COT Report was only 7,785 contracts… compared to 68,821 contracts of total open interest in platinum…122,558 contracts in silver — and 422,100 COMEX contracts in gold.

The only reason that there’s a futures market at all in palladium, is so that the Big 8 commercial traders can control its price. That’s all there is, there ain’t no more.

As of this Bank Participation Report, 15 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net long 1.9 percent of the entire COMEX open interest in palladium… compared to the 5.4 percent of total open interest that 13 banks were net long in November’s BPR.

And because of the small numbers of contracts involved, along with a tiny open interest, these numbers are pretty much meaningless.

But, having said that, for the last almost three years in a row now, the world’s banks have not been involved in the palladium market in a material way. And with them now net long by a microscopic amount, it’s all hedge funds and commodity trading houses that are left on the short side.

Here’s the palladium BPR chart. Although the world’s banks are now net long at the moment, it remains to be seen if they return as big short sellers again at some point like they’ve done in the past. Click to enlarge.

The futures positions in silver and gold that JPMorgan holds are immaterial — and have been since March of 2020…according to Ted Butler. And what net positions they might hold, would certainly be on the long side of the market.  It’s the new 7+1 shorts et al. that are on the hook in everything precious metals-related.

And as has been the case for years now, the short positions held by the Big 4/8 traders/banks, is the only thing that matters…especially the short positions of the Big 4 — and how this is ultimately resolved [as Ted said earlier] will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward.

The Big 8 shorts, along with Ted’s raptors…the small commercial traders other than the Big 8 commercial shorts…continue to have an iron grip on their respective prices — until they don’t. At this point in time, nothing appears to have changed in that regard.

Considering the current state of affairs in the world today — and the physical shortage in silver — and maybe in gold as well, the chance that these big bullion banks could get overrun at some point is certainly within the realm of possibility if things go non-linear.

I have a fairly decent number of stories and articles for you today.

Last Saturday’s classical ‘blast from the past’…Camille Saint-Saëns Symphony No. 3 in C Minor, Op. 78…had the wrong link — and for that I do apologize. The correct link for it is here.

This week’s classical ‘blast from the past’ comes to us courtesy of Richard Wagner. It’s a very short composition from his Romantic opera Lohengrin, which was first performed in Weimar, Germany on 28 August 1850…under the direction of Franz Liszt.

The most popular and recognizable part of the opera is the Bridal Chorus, colloquially known in English-speaking countries as “Here Comes the Bride,” usually played as a processional at weddings. The orchestral preludes to Acts I and III are also frequently performed separately as concert pieces.

Today’s offering is the prelude to Act III — and it’s a barn-burner of a work which, like all of Wagner’s compositions, required a huge orchestra…usually around 100 chairs in total…with the more string players the better. The audience goes wild whenever it’s performed — and rightfully so.

Mariss Jansons conducts the Berlin Philharmonic — and the link is here.

Gold was closed below $1,800 spot, but did manage to close above its 200-day moving average by around 10 dollars. But the volume number was pretty light, so ‘da boyz’ didn’t have all that much trouble keep its price in line.

Silver closed higher for the third day in a row, but not as much as it would have if it had been allowed to trade freely. It’s far above any moving average that matters — and is back in overbought territory once again on its RSI trace. Volume was pretty light in it as well.

Platinum and palladium closed higher too but, like silver and gold, were closed well of their respective high ticks. Platinum is above any of its moving average that matter — and after palladium’s gain yesterday, it’s now not that far below its 50-day moving average. Neither are anywhere near close to being overbought.

Copper was allowed to touch its 200-day moving average intraday on Friday, but was closed down a penny on the day at $3.88/pound.

Natural gas [chart included] spent part of the Friday trading session above its 50-day moving average, but was closed below it by a bit. It finished the day higher by 28 cents, at $6.24/1,000 cubic feet. WTIC was closed lower for the sixth straight day, down 44 cents at $71.02/barrel — and miles below any moving average that matters. It hasn’t been this oversold since the third week of September — and when it is oversold this amount, it doesn’t normally stay at that price level for long.

Here are the 6-month charts for the Big 6+1 commodities, thanks to the good folks over at the stockcharts.com Internet site and, if interested, Friday’s COMEX closing prices should be noted. Click to enlarge.

As I said further up, the only two reasons that I could think of why that is the case — and that’s for tax loss purposes, or an entity is shorting the precious metal stocks across the board. If you have other explanation that makes sense, I’m all ears.

The last Fed meeting of the year starts on Tuesday — and I’ll be more than interested in what happens to precious metal prices once the smoke goes up the chimney at 2:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday. All of this counterintuitive price action might have something to do with what may result from that — and I’ll also be watching the GLOBEX open at 6:00 p.m. EST on Sunday evening with some interest as well.

It’s very clear [at least to me] that neither gold or silver…or their associated equities…are being allowed to reflect the ongoing decline in the U.S. dollar index, or in the declines in other markets.

And that’s despite the fact of the ongoing shortages in both at the retail — and particularly the wholesale level. The hinky December deliveries are the latest straw in the wind in that regard.

Of course — and as you already know, inventory levels are at all-time lows in copper — and now platinum. The same can be said of nickel and zinc. You can put WTIC on that list as well because, despite its low price, there’s not a lot of extra crude oil out there now that OPEC+ has withdrawn 2 million barrels of daily production — and are threatening to cut production even more.

But despite all this, the powers-that-be continue to ride shotgun over their respective prices — and until that changes, or we have a delivery default of some kind, nothing will change.

I’m still of the opinion that we are in some sort of ‘care & maintenance’ situation until the powers-that-be decide to pull the plug on everything. I’m on record as saying that I was expecting it before the end of this year, but the jury is still out on that.

As I pointed out in last week’s Saturday column, there are a lot of pieces in motion on the precious metal chessboard right now, plus in other commodities — and although all appears calm on the surface because their prices are being actively managed, it’s very far from that under the waterline.

There are less than fifteen business days left between now and the year end — and I already have the feeling that things are winding down going into the New Year. It’s normally very quiet between Christmas and New Years…but I wouldn’t bet the farm on that being the case this time.

The reason is simple…the drumbeat of the ongoing and ever-increasing physical shortage in silver [and gold] grows louder with each passing day — and something has to give at some point, as this can’t go on forever.

So we wait some more.

I’m still “all in” — and will remain so to whatever end.

See you here on Tuesday.

Ed