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June 24, 2022 | “Inflation Forecasts Aren’t Worth the Paper They’re Written on”: This Is about the Bank of Canada’s Reaction to Inflation, But it’s the Same in the US and Everywhere

When Canada’s Consumer Price Index for May was released a couple of days ago, it was – “as expected,” I would say – a lot lot worse than expected, and exceeded once again by a huge margin the inflation forecasts by the Bank of Canada. According to the exasperated economists at the National Bank of […]

June 24, 2022 | The Bank of Canada Wants 2 Percent While Inflation Nears 8 Percent

The inflation rate in Canada hit a new high for this cycle as it reached 7.7 percent growth. The Bank of Canada’s goal is to get inflation to 2 percent. Can the Bank of Canada succeed? Carolyn Rogers. Source: Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada said that “inflation […]

June 24, 2022 | Retail Capitulation Yet To Come

Lived experience tends to influence thinking, especially regarding financial decisions. Whether the latest memories are smooth sailing or adversity, it’s typical to expect more of the same, discounting the undulation of cycles. The March 2020 market freefall was highly unusual in its brevity. As the world economy unexpectedly shut down, many found a windfall of […]

June 24, 2022 | Could Current Stock Market Rally Last the Summer?

Global food catastrophe warning

June 23, 2022 | Biden: There’s Going to Be Another Pandemic

The US government ordered 3.5 million additional Pfizer vaccines and 1.3 million from Moderna. Yet, Biden is requesting more funding from Congress for pandemic initiatives. “We don’t just need more money for vaccines for Children. Eventually, we need more money to plan for the second pandemic. There’s going to be another pandemic. We have to […]

June 23, 2022 | The New OCC Report

On Tuesday, the new Quarterly Derivatives Report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency was released, showing the over-the-counter derivatives positions for US banks as of March 31, 2022. This report excludes listed or exchange-traded derivatives contracts, such as COMEX futures and options contracts and also excludes OTC derivatives contracts held by non-US […]

June 23, 2022 | How Long Could Bear Market Last?

Why Gold isn’t higher in the face of inflation. Special Offer! Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

June 23, 2022 | Oil, Commodities, Interest Rates

The Fed, inflation, recession

June 23, 2022 | How to Recession Proof Your Portfolio

Commodities, equities, still lots of room to drop

June 23, 2022 | Bear Rallies, Interest Rates, Inflation, Gold

Will a stalling economy stop inflation?

June 23, 2022 | How Do Bubbles Form? Tulips, GameStop (and Crypto) Help Explain

The video below from the Wall Street Journal offers a helpful refresher on how asset bubbles move. Worth the 7 minutes. Asset bubbles are easy enough to define, but not so simple to identify. WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji explains what bubbles are exactly, how they form and what happens when they burst. Here is a direct video […]

June 22, 2022 | The Fed v Congress

Powell addressed Congress on Wednesday to curb inflation fears. The Fed is stuck between a rock and hard place right now as some must lose in order for the situation to improve. Not one to mince words, Sen. John Kennedy said, “We got a hell of a mess right now. You’re the most powerful man […]

June 22, 2022 | Big Bounces Par for Bear Market Course

Cryptocurrencies are bid this morning, and US markets are reopening with a bounce following the steepest losses since March 2020 (the S&P fell 5.8% last week, -10% this month so far). As shown below, courtesy of The Daily Shot, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (supposed to be more ‘conservative’) has fallen 11 of the past […]

June 21, 2022 | Consumers Spend More on Less

Consumer spending, a main indication of the nation’s economic health, has remained strong despite rising inflation. Personal spending increased 0.9% in April, while March’s figure was revised to 1.4%. Obviously, people have been spending more on less due to sky-high prices. May’s figure will be released later in the week, but American businesses are noticing […]

June 21, 2022 | Home Prices Dropping–as They Should

There’s now much talk of home prices “crashing,” but few were ringing alarm bells as they leapt 50% over the prior two years. Housing has always been a cycle driven primarily by credit. Because the latest boom went on longer than average, most people stopped thinking of housing as a cycle, which was an error. […]

June 20, 2022 | China Uses COVID Pass to Restrict Movement

People believed that governments would use tracker apps solely for COVID purposes. Sadly, the Chinese are quickly learning the harsh reality – the apps were always intended to control the masses. Over $6 billion (39 billion yuan) has been frozen, and thousands of people are unable to access their bank accounts. A few banks in […]

June 20, 2022 | Bear Market Update

Starting a new week with US markets unplugged today offers a moment to review the bear market progress to date. From their most recent highs: S&P 500 -23% Nasdaq -32% Russell 2000 small caps -32% TSX -14% Cdn $/USD -7.8% Canadian financials -17% Canadian oil and gas stocks -15% US oil and gas stocks –20% US Banks: –32% Asset manglers managers –37% […]

June 20, 2022 | News Economically Unfeasible

Over the past several weeks regular readers of this newsletter have heard me rant about the impending slowdown in the development space. A combo of rising financing costs and still elevated construction costs makes for a rather terrible risk/reward ratio for home builders. In fact, it makes some projects economically unfeasible. Mainstream media is now […]

June 19, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel

Danielle appeared on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel talking about the federal budget, Bank of Canada, crypto crash and readjusting to in person work. Here is a direct video link.    

June 19, 2022 | What Doc Copper Can Tell Us

Copper’s long-term chart suggests that the global economy could have one last hurrah once the bear market begun in January has run its course. Copper is reputed to have a PhD in economics because of its supposed ability to predict major turns accurately, In actuality, its track record is pretty impressive. The chart above shows […]

June 19, 2022 | Gradually Worse

This time last year, the great debate was whether inflation would be “transitory.” That question is now settled (Narrator: “It wasn’t transitory at all.”), we have moved on to debating what the Federal Reserve will do about it… and can do about it. The experts at the Strategic Investment Conference fell into two camps: The […]

June 18, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For June 18, 2022

Central Banks dominated the markets this week The Fed raised rates by 75bps and forecasts much more to come. The Swiss National Bank surprised markets with a 50bps raise (to minus 25bps), the BoE raised 25bps, the ECB indicated that they would likely raise by more than 25bps in July, and the BoJ stood pat. […]

June 18, 2022 | This Week in Money

June 17, 2022 | Has Inflation Peaked?

  Producer Price Index (PPI) readings for May 2022 are shown in Table B above. Observe that the highlighted column on the right is about double that of the highlighted column on the left – and it’s been that way for the last 12 months. Because it takes a while for rising costs to work […]

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