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April 25, 2022 | Not Bullish Sentiment

While this is probably getting tiresome at this point, inflation came in hot once again in March, hitting a 30 year high. Consumer prices are up 6.7% from last year, and are likely to hit 8% in April based on Stats Canada finally adding used car prices to the CPI basket. This is ramping up […]

April 25, 2022 | Combing Thru Data – Looking For Clues About Volatility, USD & Stocks

We are now seeing that major economies (US/UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. As investors seek safety in the US Dollar this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks and market volatility will begin to pick up as the VIXY moves up. As the USD continues to strengthen […]

April 24, 2022 | Into the Fire

If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March… and we know it understates categories like housing. These year-over-year […]

April 24, 2022 | What If Crude Has Topped?

  If you’re a permabear, it might be refreshing to view Friday’s thousand-point Dow avalanche as the start of a wholesome new trend. My gut feeling, however, is that the plunge will reverse before midweek, ideally at Hidden Pivot targets featured in the latest list of ‘touts’ on the Rick’s Picks home page. I’ll keep an open […]

April 24, 2022 | Israel Added Yuan to Reserve Currency Portfolio

Israel has now moved to add the Chinese yuan to its reserve currency portfolio, which will create a natural hedge against the risk of insanity pushing for war by the United States and Europe. Adding the yuan to the reserve portfolio will automatically reduce the exposure to the dollar and especially to the euro, thereby […]

April 24, 2022 | Who’s Got the Macro Story Right?

Good update on why bonds are deeply oversold and likely to rebound as economic growth and equities continue lower. The consumer cyclical segments of the stock market can see the recession, but all the bond market sees is endless inflation. For a change, my money is on how the equity folks see things playing out.  […]

April 23, 2022 | Inflation May Take The Food Out of Your Mouth Before it Goes Away

The experts say, “Inflation is peaking.” The experts said “Inflation is transitory.” Who you gonna believe? Maybe next the experts will say, “You are going to be satisfied with eating less.”   by David Haggith on The Great Recession Blog: So much has happened with the rise of inflation and so much is continuing to […]

April 23, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For April 23, 2022

Stock indices finally got the message from the credit markets, and they didn’t like it! Interest rates across the curve have been surging higher since December, with the “rate of change” accelerating since early March, but the leading stock indices remained no more than a few percentage points away from All-Time Highs. Late this week, with Fed […]

April 23, 2022 | Getting From Bubbles Through Bust

A not-so-stealth bear market continues globally even as a handful of late-cycle holdouts prop up broad indices and mask the breadth of constituent carnage. As our cycle analysis suggested would happen, individual companies and sectors are giving back their rebound from the March 2020 bounce.  And for a good reason.  Unprecedented fiscal and monetary support […]

April 23, 2022 | This Week in Money

  • Bob Hoye – Stock Markets, Sell in May Go Away?
  • John Kaiser –  Junior Mining Sector, Bottom Fish Favorites, Gold, Junior Money
  • Eric Hadik –  Cycles, Dow, Inflation, Interest Rates, Gold, Cryptos

April 22, 2022 | Second Order Thinking

Second order thinking is essential if you want to be a superior investor. Most real estate investors, however, only consider the first order effects of economic events – such as a downturn in housing prices. Conversely not spending time to consider the second order effects of market events can result in you missing out on […]

April 22, 2022 | Battery Costs For Electric Vehicles Are Soaring

Worldwide demand for battery electric vehicles is soaring. The cost of materials needed for vehicle batteries is rising even faster. Will the cost of batteries bring the electric vehicle revolution to a sudden halt? In some countries, such as Norway, the conversion to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) is very advanced. With punitive taxes on internal combustion […]

April 22, 2022 | Doug Casey: Food Riots and “Inflation Lockdowns” will Endure

  Food prices are soaring, riots are roaring. What is driving the inflation? How long is this going to last? And how much worse will it get? What is the likelihood riots spread to the US and other developed economies? by Doug Casey on International Man: International Man: Recently, we’ve seen people riot over rising prices—especially […]

April 22, 2022 | The Junkiest of Junk Bonds Send Economic Warning

No matter how you sell it, inflation not good

April 21, 2022 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, April Update, as Yields Spike & Bank of Canada Hikes

The rate of inflation in Canada spiked to 6.7% in March, from 5.7% in February. The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rates twice so far this year, including by 50 basis points in April, and announced that QT would start on April 25. Government of Canada bond yields have spiked. And home buyers, after […]

April 21, 2022 | Wealthy Flee Shanghai

The lockdown in Shanghai has caused immeasurable damage to the people and battered an already stunted global supply chain. The wealthy are now fleeing the city, as numerous agencies have reported a large uptick in immigration requests. The Financial Times reported a 7-fold increase in the search term “immigration” among residents. The media has downplayed […]

April 21, 2022 | Telling the Covid Good Guys from the Bad Guys

by Justus R. Hope: How does one navigate when the traditional media all lie? How can an average person figure out who to believe? What is the truth? When you notice young, healthy athletes suddenly dropping from heart attacks, and Twitter de-platforms anyone who dares mention it, this tells you not to trust Twitter. Likewise, […]

April 21, 2022 | Global Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher

Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next. Will The US […]

April 21, 2022 | Michael Lewis, Against the Rules: Predatory Financial Services

I recently discovered author Michael Lewis’s podcast Against the Rules, which examines all the different ways that neutral judges have been steadily removed from our systems and how this impacts us socially and economically.  Broad-reaching and illuminating, His segment on predatory financial services is worthwhile, even for hardened finance skeptics. The government protects us from […]

April 21, 2022 | Oil, Uranium, Inflation, Interest Rates, Food Shortages

Agricultural Commodities, Hydrogen, Natural Gas

April 21, 2022 | Gold, Inflation, Mortgages, Food Costs, Stock Market

Russia vs. Ukraine, South Seas Bubble

April 21, 2022 | Gold, Silver, Inflation, Interest Rates, Bonds

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April 21, 2022 | Fannie Mae Forecasts “Modest Recession” in 2023

Fannie Mae forecasts a “modest recession in the latter half of 2023” and believes the house-buying frenzy will begin to cool in the US. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish direction to curb inflation has led the agency to believe that a “soft landing” for the US economy is unlikely. “With the most recent inflation readings at […]

April 20, 2022 | TED in Conversation with Elon Musk

One doesn’t need to love Elon Musk, want to live on Mars, or agree with everything he does or says.  But there’s no denying that he’s one of the most impactful entrepreneurs of our century.  This discussion is worth a mull. In conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Musk details how the radical new […]

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