Based on the kitco.com spot closing prices in silver and gold posted above, the gold/silver ratio worked out to 78.6 to 1 on Friday…unchanged from Thursday.

And here’s Nick Laird’s 1-year Gold/Silver Ratio chart, updated with this week’s data. Click to enlarge.

One again there was zero correlation between the currencies and what was happening with regards to precious metal prices.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury: 2.7130%…up 0.0610 (+2.30%)…as of 02:59 p.m. EDT

Here’s the 5-year 10-year U.S. Treasury chart from the yahoo.com Internet site — and it puts the yield curve into a somewhat longer-term perspective. Click to enlarge.

As you are more than aware, the only reason that yields are where they are, is because the central banks of the world continue to buy up virtually all, if not all of the sovereign debt being issued. That isn’t about to stop anytime soon, as Japan just announced very recently — and the European Central Bank was in a snit about yesterday in this Zero Hedge article from Richard Saler linked here.

As the saying goes “bonds are guaranteed certificates of confiscation” — and that fact is now on full display in all the bond markets of the world. The Fed says it’s going to be unwinding its balance sheet — and the obvious question on everyone’s lips is…”who’s going to buy them?”

The gold shares began to head higher right from the moment that trading began at 9:30 a.m. in New York on Friday morning — and that lasted until around 10:20 a.m. EDT. They were then sold a bit lower until a few minutes before 11 a.m. They began to creep higher from there, with their respective highs coming around 2:25 p.m. EDT. They were sold a bit lower until the market closed at 4:00 p.m. The HUI finished up 2.18 percent.

Computed manually, Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index closed up 2.69 percent.

And here’s Nick’s 3-year Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index chart, updated with Friday’s candle. Click to enlarge.

The star yesterday was SSR Mining, as it closed higher by 4.20 percent — and the biggest underperformer was Peñoles, as it closed up only 1.14 percent on 7,600 shares traded.

The latest silver eye candy from the reddit.com/Wallstreetsilver crowd is linked here.

Here are two of the three usual charts that show up in every weekend missive. They show the changes in gold, silver, platinum and palladium in both percent and dollar and cents terms, as of their Friday closes in New York — along with the changes in the HUI and the Silver 7 Index.

Here’s the month-to-date chart…and it’s green across the board, except for platinum. The Silver 7 Index would be doing a little better if Peñoles wasn’t part of it, but there’s nothing that can be done about that. Click to enlarge.

Here’s the year-to-date chart — and it’s still wall-to-wall green…with the silver stocks being the underperformers vs. its underlying precious metal so far this year. That will obviously change at some point. Palladium’s gain year-to-date is impressive…but obviously down a very considerable amount because of the pounding it has taken during the last month. It would have been down even more, except for its strong rally yesterday — and platinum got saved for the same reason. Click to enlarge.

Of course how much more in the way of gains were going to see going forward continues to be in the hands of the commercial traders of whatever stripe, as they alone control the price of everything precious metals-related…until they don’t.

Here are the usual two 20-year charts that show up in this space every Saturday. They show the total amount of physical gold and silver held in all know depositories, ETFs and mutual funds as of the close of business on Friday.

During the week just past, there was a net 347,000 troy ounces of gold added — and a net 1,689,000 troy ounces of silver was removed. Click to enlarge.

Ted is of the opinion that any and all silver that’s required by SLV is being provided by JPMorgan and Friends, rather than allowing the short position to blow out to alarming levels. He also assumes that they’re supplying all the other silver ETFs and mutual funds that require physical silver as well.

I’ll be more than interested in what the next short report shows on 11 May…which is Monday.

The physical shortage in silver continues to creep along — and the fact that JPMorgan has been issuing silver contracts out of their house account in both March and April…not to mention the physical silver being provided to all and sundry mentioned above…shows how extreme the situation has become.

Retail silver demand continues to be white hot as far as I can tell — and delivery times for product from the various sovereign and private mints is still many weeks to months for a lot of bread and butter items.

The Commitment of Traders Report, for positions held at the close of COMEX trading on Tuesday, showed smallish improvements in the commercial net short positions in both gold and silver.

In silver, the Commercial net short position decreased by 1,336 COMEX contracts, or 6.7 million troy ounces — and that improvement came as a result of Ted’s raptors adding to their long positions, as the Big 8 shorts did next to nothing on a net basis.

The commercial traders arrived at that number by increasing their long position by 1,333 COMEX contracts — and reduced their short position by 3 contracts. It’s the sum of those two numbers that represents their change for the reporting week.

Under the hood in the Disaggregated COT Report, it was all Managed Money trader selling — and then some, that accounted for the change, as they decreased their net long position by 3,166 contracts. The Other Reportables were also sellers during the reporting week, but only 40 contracts worth, which was hardly worth calculating. On the other hand, the Nonreportable/small traders were big buyers, as they increased their net long position by 1,870 COMEX contracts.

Doing the math: 2,896 plus 40 minus 1,870 equals 1,336 COMEX contracts, the change in the Commercial net short position.

The Commercial net short position in silver now sits at 300.2 million troy ounces…down 6.7 million troy ounces from the 306.9 million troy ounces that they were short in last Friday’s COT Report…which is obviously the headline number change mentioned further up.

The Big 8 are short 369.8 million troy ounces in this week’s COT Report, a decrease of only 100,000 troy ounces from the 369.9 million troy ounces they were short in last Friday’s COT Report.

The headline change in the Commercial net short position above showed an decrease of 6.7 million troy ounces. So Ted’s raptors, the small commercial traders other than the Big 8 shorts did virtually all of the buying during the reporting week…to the tune of 6.7-0.1=6.6 million troy ounces…1,320 COMEX contracts…as they increased their long position by that amount.

It was their buying of long positions that had the mathematical effect of decreasing the commercial net short position by the amount that it did…except for that net 100,000 troy ounces bought by the Big 8 shorts.

Always remember that despite their small size, Ted’s raptors are still commercial traders in the commercial category.

The Big 8 are short 369.8/300.2 equals about 123 percent of the Commercial net short position in silver, up from the 121 percent they were short in last week’s COT Report — and all because of all the longs purchased by Ted’s raptors.

Here’s the 3-year COT chart for silver, courtesy of Nick Laird as always. Click to enlarge.

This insignificant decrease in the Commercial net short position in silver, although welcomed, still leaves the futures market structure in silver very much on the bearish side…especially from a Big 4/8 short perspective. So nothing has changed from last week’s COT Report.

However, however tiny the amount, this is the first week of the last three, that the Big 4/8 have decreased their net short position in silver…as it’s been an all-raptor affair.

Ted is still of the opinion that there’s a ‘whale’ in the Swap Dealer category that holds a long position of at least 15,000 contracts. That trader has held that position for many months now. What it means, Ted’s not sure about…but it certainly isn’t bearish for the price.

The commercial traders in silver are still in a position to lay a beating on the silver price going forward — and Ted’s of the opinion that it will take a price of under $23/ounce to do a proper clean out.

But can they or will they, is a question that still remains unanswered as of this writing — and events of this past month have most likely changed a lot of things.

And to repeat Ted Butler’s quote from last Friday’s column…”[O]ne of these days, market structure considerations, as defined by readings in the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, will matter little – supplanted by physical market considerations or other things (like the OTC derivatives positions of the banks.)”

Whether we’ve reached that point, is yet another question that remains unanswered, but it’s a given that the current situation can’t continue forever, especially considering the near insatiable demand for physical silver at both the wholesale and retail levels.

In gold, the commercial net short position declined by 7,179 COMEX contracts, or 717,900 troy ounces of the stuff…0.72 million troy ounces.

They arrived at that number by reducing their long position by 8,544 COMEX contracts, but also reduced their short position by 15,723 contracts — and it’s the difference between those two numbers that represents their change for the reporting week.

Under the hood in the Disaggregated COT Report, both the Managed Money and Other Reportables were the big sellers. The former category reduced their net long position by 6,675 COMEX contracts…mostly by adding to their gross short position — and the latter category by 5,380 contracts…mostly by reducing their gross long position.

Once again — and like in silver, it was the Nonreportable/small traders that were the big buyers, as they increased their net long position by a hefty 4,876 COMEX contracts.

Doing the math: 6,675 plus 5,380 minus 4,876 equals 7,179 COMEX contracts, the change in the commercial net short position.

The commercial net short position in gold now sits at 27.88 million troy ounces, down 710,000 troy ounces [0.71 million] from the 28.59 million troy ounces they were short in last Friday’s COT Report…which is obviously the change in the headline number further up…with the minor difference being a rounding error.

The short position of the Big 8 traders is now 26.97 million troy ounces, up 0.08 million troy ounces from the 26.89 million troy ounces they were short in last week’s COT Report.

But since the headline change in the commercial net short position showed an decrease of 717,900 troy ounce/0.72 million troy ounces rounded up, it means that Ted’s raptors, the small commercial traders other than the Big 8, decreased their own short position by 0.72+0.08=0.80 million troy ounces/8,000 COMEX contracts to make up the difference — and that’s what they did.

Their buying of long contracts/covering short positions had the mathematical effect of decreasing the commercial net short position by that amount.

As in silver, don’t forget that despite their small size, Ted’s raptors are still commercial traders in the commercial category — and it was yet another all raptor affair this week.

From the above numbers, the Big 8 traders are short 26.97/27.88 equals about 97 percent of the commercial net short position in gold…down about 3 percentage points from the approximately 94 percent they were short in last Friday’s COT Report.

This means that Ted’s raptors, the small commercial traders other than the Big 8, hold the remaining 3 percent of the commercial net short position in gold — and are that far away from being net long gold.

Here’s Nick Laird’s 3-year COT chart for gold, updated with Friday’s data. Click to enlarge.

Ted said that the gold ‘whale’ in the Other Reportables category…which he believes is John Paulson…is still there — and appears that he took delivery of about 5,000 contracts worth of gold during April, so he remains long gold by about 35,000 contracts in the COMEX futures market…down from the 40,000 Ted reported last week.

Like last week’s COT Report the Big 4 reduced their short position during the current reporting week, while the Big ‘5 through 8’ increased their net short position during the same period…which was something that Ted mentioned on the phone again yesterday afternoon.

So, like in silver, the set-up in the COMEX futures market still remains very bearish.

Ted feels that it would take an engineered price decline in gold down to about $1,800 to clean out all the longs that have been added in the last month or so — and [like in silver] whether or not that is even possible in the current monetary, financial and political environment remains to be seen.

Gold’s 50 and 200-day moving averages still remain unbroken to the downside — and whether that matters this time or not, also remains to be seen.

And to repeat Ted’s quote from the COT commentary on silver above…”[O]ne of these days, market structure considerations, as defined by readings in the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, will matter little – supplanted by physical market considerations or other things (like the OTC derivatives positions of the banks.)”

So we wait some more.

In the other metals, the Managed Money traders in palladium increased their net long position by 63 COMEX contracts — and are still net short palladium by 324 contracts. In platinum, the Managed Money traders decreased their net long position by a further 3,316 contracts during the reporting week — but are still net long the COMEX futures market by 5,360 COMEX contracts…about 9 percent of total open interest, down about 5 percentage points from last week. The Producer/Merchant category continues to be mega net short against all others in platinum…including the Swap Dealers in the commercial category. In copper, the Managed Money traders decreased their net long position by an insignificant 140 COMEX contracts — and are net long copper by 40,554 COMEX contracts at the moment…about 1.01 billion pounds of the stuff — and about 19 percent of total open interest…down about 1 percentage point from what they were net long in last Friday’s COT Report.

Here’s Nick Laird’s “Days to Cover” chart, updated with the COT data for positions held at the close of COMEX trading on Tuesday, April 5. It shows the days of world production that it would take to cover the short positions of the Big 4 — and Big ‘5 through 8’ traders in each physically traded commodity on the COMEX.

I consider this to be the most important chart that shows up in the COT series — and it always deserves a minute of your time. Click to enlarge.

In this week’s ‘Days to Cover’ chart, the Big 4 traders are short about 120 days of world silver production, down about 1 day from last week’s COT Report. The ‘5 through 8’ large traders are short an additional 52 days of world silver production, up about 1 day from last Friday’s report, for a total of about 172 days that the Big 8 are short — unchanged from last week’s COT Report.

That 172 days that the Big 8 are short, represents almost six months of world silver production, or 369.8 million troy ounces of paper silver held short by the Big 8 commercial traders.

In the COT Report above, the Commercial net short position in silver was reported by the CME Group at 300.2 million troy ounces. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the short position of the Big 4/8 traders is 369.8 million troy ounces. So the short position of the Big 4/8 traders is larger than the Commercial net short position by 369.8-300.2=69.6 million troy ounces…up 6.6 million troy ounces from last week’s COT Report…1,320 COMEX contracts…the number of long contracts bought by Ted’s raptors during the past reporting week.

The reason for the difference in those numbers is that Ted’s raptors, the small commercial traders other than the Big 8, are net long silver by that amount…69.6 million troy ounces/13,920 COMEX contracts.

As per the first paragraph above, the Big 4 traders in silver are short around 120 days of world silver production in total. That’s 30 days of world silver production each, on average…down a tiny amount from last Friday’s report. The traders in the ‘5 through 8’ category are short 52 days of world silver production in total…13 days of world silver production each on average — up a small amount from last week’s COT Report.

The Big 8 traders are short 49.8 percent of the entire open interest in silver in the COMEX futures market, which is down a tiny bit from the 50.2 percent they were short in the last COT report. And once whatever market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out, that percentage would certainly be over the 55 percent mark. In gold, it’s 48.1 percent of the total COMEX open interest that the Big 8 are short, up a bit from the 46.8 percent they were short in last Friday’s COT Report — and close to the 55 percent mark once their market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out.

In gold, the Big 4 are short 60 days of world gold production, down about 1 day from last Friday’s COT Report. The ‘5 through 8’ are short 30 days of world production, up 1 day from last week…for a total of 90 days of world gold production held short by the Big 8 — unchanged from last Friday’s COT Report — and the week before. Based on these numbers, the Big 4 in gold hold about 67 percent of the total short position held by the Big 8…down about 1 percentage point from last Friday’s COT Report.

The “concentrated short position within a concentrated short position” in silver, platinum and palladium held by the Big 4 commercial traders are about 70, 80 and 75 percent respectively of the short positions held by the Big 8…the red and green bars on the above chart. Silver is about unchanged from last week…platinum is also about unchanged from a week ago — and palladium is up about 6 percentage points week-over-week.

Nothing has changed. The Big 4/8 traders are still very firmly stuck on the short side in both gold and silver — and they increased their short position in gold during the reporting week — and decreased it in silver by an immaterial amount.

As I keep pointing out — and will mention again, the Big 4/8 shorts will never be able to extricate themselves fully from the short side, if that was ever their intent…particularly the Big 4. At some point they’re going to have eat the lion’s share of the short positions that they currently hold. The only way that they can do that is to go into the market and buy longs…or deliver physical metal, but only if the long holders are in a position to accept delivery. Ted says that a lot of them aren’t.

So unless the powers-that-be at the CFTC and CME Group have something nefarious up their sleeves, or they’re bailed out by the likes of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the U.S. Treasury or the Fed, their potential loses can only be imagined…think LME nickel times 100 or more. But I very much doubt that it will be allowed to happen, especially for the ‘too big to fail’ bullion banks in the Big 4 category.

What happened on the LME involving the nickel market will most likely be a template for what will occur over at the CME Group at some point, as they rush to protect the big shorts on any runaway price activity to the upside, as that’s their primary function.

But as of this moment, there are no upside daily limits as to how high gold and silver prices can rise in the COMEX futures market.

However, the circumstances in silver have been altered by an unimaginable [and monstrously bullish] amount by Ted’s discovery of the approximately 1.2 billion troy ounce physical short position in silver that Bank of America appears to hold in the OTC market…along with the big increase in Goldman’s derivatives position in silver in that market, as shown in last Friday’s OCC Report…which Ted figures is a long position.

He has also come to the conclusion that BofA is short about 30 million ounces of gold in the OTC market as well.

The situation regarding the Big 4/8 shorts in silver, gold [and platinum] continues to be far beyond obscene, twisted and grotesque — and as Ted correctly points out ad nauseam, its resolution will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward.

As always, nothing else matters.

The April Bank Participation Report [BPR] data is extracted directly from yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report. It shows the number of futures contracts, both long and short, that are held by all the U.S. and non-U.S. banks as of Tuesday’s cut-off in all COMEX-traded products. For this one day a month we get to see what the world’s banks are up to in the precious metals.  They’re usually up to quite a bit — and they certainly were this past month.

[The April Bank Participation Report covers the time period from March 1 to April 5 inclusive.]

In gold, 5 U.S. banks are net short 71,460 COMEX contracts in the April BPR. In March’s Bank Participation Report [BPR] these same 5 U.S. banks were net short 64,587 contracts, so there was an increase of 6,873 COMEX contracts month-over-month. That’s the fourth month in a row that the U.S. banks have increased their short position in gold.

Citigroup, HSBC USA, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley would most likely be the U.S. banks that are short this amount of gold. I still have my usual suspicions about the Exchange Stabilization Fund, although if they’re involved, they are most likely just backstopping these banks.

Also in gold, 25 non-U.S. banks are net short 75,145 COMEX gold contracts. In March’s BPR, 27 non-U.S. banks were net short 92,025 contracts…so the month-over-month change shows a big decrease of 16,880 COMEX contracts.

At the low back in the August 2018 BPR…these same non-U.S. banks held a net short position in gold of only 1,960 contacts — and they’ve been back on the short side in an enormous way ever since.

I suspect that there’s at least three large banks in this group, HSBC, Barclays and Deutsche Bank. I also have my suspicions about Scotiabank/Scotia Capital, Dutch Bank ABN Amro, French bank BNP Paribas, plus Australia’s Macquarie Futures. Other than that small handful, the short positions in gold held by the vast majority of non-U.S. banks are immaterial and, like in silver, have always been so.

As of this Bank Participation Report, 30 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 26.2 percent of the entire open interest in gold in the COMEX futures market, which is up a bit from the 25.4 percent that 32 banks were net short in the March BPR.

Here’s Nick’s BPR chart for gold going back to 2000. Charts #4 and #5 are the key ones here. Note the blow-out in the short positions of the non-U.S. banks [the blue bars in chart #4] when Scotiabank’s COMEX short position was outed by the CFTC in October of 2012. Click to enlarge.

In silver, 5 U.S. banks are net short 35,475 COMEX contracts in April’s BPR. In March’s BPR, the net short position of these same 5 U.S. banks was 31,126 contracts, which is up another 4,349 COMEX contracts month-over-month. This is the third month a row where the short position held by these big 5 U.S. banks has increased…but not by an overly large amount.

The biggest short holders in silver of the five U.S. banks in total, would be Citigroup, HSBC USA, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley…and maybe Goldman Sachs…but not JPMorgan according to Ted. And, like in gold, I have my suspicions about the Exchange Stabilization Fund’s role in all this…although, also like in gold, not directly.

Also in silver, 19 non-U.S. banks are net short 21,002 COMEX contracts in the April BPR…which is down a pretty decent amount from the 26,224 contracts that 20 non-U.S. banks were short in the March BPR.

I would suspect that HSBC and Barclays holds a goodly chunk of the short position of these non-U.S. banks…plus some by Canada’s Scotiabank/Scotia Capital still. I’m not sure about Deutsche Bank… but now suspect Australia’s Macquarie Futures. I’m also of the opinion that a number of the remaining non-U.S. banks may actually be net long the COMEX futures market in silver. But even if they aren’t, the remaining short positions divided up between these other 14 or so non-U.S. banks are immaterial — and have always been so.

As of April’s Bank Participation Report, 24 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 38.0 percent of the entire open interest in the COMEX futures market in silver— up a bit from the 36.4 percent that 25 banks were net short in the March BPR. And much, much more than the lion’s share of that is held by Citigroup, HSBC, Bank of America, Barclays — and Scotiabank — and possibly one other non-U.S. bank…all of which are card-carrying members of the Big 8 shorts.

I’ll point out here that Goldman Sachs, up until late last year, had no derivatives in the COMEX futures market in any of the four precious metals. But they did show up in the last two OCC Reports. Now they have a $4.8 billion position, mostly in silver — and as I pointed out a bit further up, Ted thinks they’re long the market.

Here’s the BPR chart for silver. Note in Chart #4 the blow-out in the non-U.S. bank short position [blue bars] in October of 2012 when Scotiabank was brought in from the cold. Also note August 2008 when JPMorgan took over the silver short position of Bear Stearns—the red bars. It’s very noticeable in Chart #4—and really stands out like the proverbial sore thumb it is in chart #5. But, according to Ted, as of March 2020…they’re out of their short positions, not only in silver, but the other three precious metals as well. Click to enlarge.

In platinum, 5 U.S. banks are net short 18,119 COMEX contracts in the April Bank Participation Report, which is down 1,503 contracts from the 19,622 COMEX contracts that these same 5 U.S. banks were short in the March BPR.

I will point out here that this is the first month of the last four that these 5 U.S. banks have decreased their collective short positions in platinum…the Big 8 shorts No. 2 problem child after silver.

At the ‘low’ back in July of 2018, these U.S. banks were actually net long the platinum market by 2,573 contracts. So they have a very long way to go to get back to just market neutral in platinum…if they ever intend to, that is.

Also in platinum, 14 non-U.S. banks are net short 2,233 COMEX contracts in the April BPR, which is down 1,727 contracts from the 3,960 COMEX contracts that 15 non-U.S. banks were net short in the March BPR.

[Note: Back at the July 2018 low, these same non-U.S. banks were net short only 1,192 COMEX contracts in platinum, so they’re closing in on that number again.]

And as of April’s Bank Participation Report, 19 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 33.3 percent of platinum’s total open interest in the COMEX futures market, which is down a bit from the 36.1 percent that 20 banks were net short in March’s BPR.

But it’s the U.S. banks that are on the short hook big time — and the real price managers. They have little chance of delivering into their short positions, although a very large number of platinum contracts have already been delivered during the last year or so…including this current delivery month. But that fact, like in both silver and gold, has made no difference whatsoever to their short positions held. The situation for them in this precious metal is as equally dire in the COMEX futures market as it is with the other two precious metals…silver and gold…particularly the former.

The reason that they’ll never improve their short positions in a big way is the same reason as in gold and silver…the Managed Money traders flatly refuse to go short big time like they used to in the past — and they’re actually net long about 5,400 COMEX contracts at the moment.

Here’s the Bank Participation Report chart for platinum. Click to enlarge.

In palladium, 4 U.S. banks are net short 318 COMEX contracts, down 67 contracts from the 385 contracts that they were short in March’s BPR.

Also in palladium, 6 non-U.S. banks are net long 281 COMEX contracts in the April BPR, up from 9 non-U.S. banks that were net long 130 contracts in March.

Except in February’s Bank Participation Report, these non-U.S. banks have been net long palladium by a bit for the last 24 months.

And as I’ve been commenting for almost forever now, the COMEX futures market in palladium is a market in name only, because it’s so illiquid and thinly-traded. Its total open interest at Tuesday’s cut-off was only 6,642 contracts…compared to 60,983 contracts of total open interest in platinum…148,526 contracts in silver — and 560,666 COMEX contracts in gold.

The only reason that there’s a futures market at all in palladium, is so that the Big 8 traders can control its price. That’s all there is, there ain’t no more.

As of this Bank Participation Report, 10 banks [both U.S. and foreign] are net short 0.6 percent of the entire COMEX open interest in palladium…compared to the 1.8 percent of total open interest that 13 banks were net short in March’s BPR.

And because of the small numbers of contracts involved, along with a tiny open interest, these numbers are pretty much meaningless.

But, having said that, for the last two years in a row, the world’s banks have not been involved in the palladium market in a material way. It’s all hedge funds and commodity trading houses now.

Here’s the palladium BPR chart. Although the world’s banks are market neutral at the moment, it remains to be seen if they return as big short sellers again at some point like they’ve done in the past. Click to enlarge.

Excluding palladium for obvious reasons, only a small handful of the world’s banks, most likely four or so in total — and mostly U.S-based, except for HSBC, Barclays and maybe Deutsche Bank…continue to have meaningful short positions in the other three precious metals. It’s a near certainty that they run this price management scheme from within their own in-house/proprietary trading desks…although it’s a given that some of their their clients are short these metals as well.

The futures positions in silver and gold that JPMorgan holds are immaterial — and have been since March of 2020…according to Ted Butler. And what net positions they might hold, would certainly be on the long side of the market. It’s the new 7+1 shorts et al. that are on the hook in everything precious metals-related.

And as has been the case for years now, the short positions held by the Big 4/8 traders/banks is the only thing that matters…especially the short positions of the Big 4 — and how it is ultimately resolved [as Ted said earlier] will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward.

The Big 8 shorts, along with Ted’s raptors…the small commercial traders other than the Big 8 commercial shorts…continue to have an iron grip on their respective prices — and nothing has changed in that regard over the last month…at least what can be seen on the surface. They continue to be the cork in the precious metal price bottle.

That situation will persist until they either voluntarily give it up…or are told to step aside, as it now appears that there’s no chance that they will ever get overrun. If that possibility had ever existed in reality, it would have happened already. However, considering the current state of affairs in the world today — and the physical shortage in silver, I suppose one shouldn’t rule it out entirely.

I have a very large number of stories, articles and videos for you today, including quite a few I’ve been saving for today’s column for length and/or content reason.

The first three photos were taken at the green on the 9th hole at the the Mabel Lake Golf and Country Club on May 23, 2021. The fourth is of the private airstrip beside the course. It’s only 884 metres/2,900 feet long — and looks inviting in this photo. However, the photo of it looking in the other direction is far more terrifying. That picture, amongst others of this runway, will be in Tuesday’s missive. Click to enlarge.

“Understand this: Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.” — Gandalf the White

Today’s pop ‘blast from the past’ is offered with some sadness, as the artist who sang this pop tune, passed from our sight on Monday. However, as soon as I read that, today’s pop selection was cast in stone immediately.

Born in April 1942…eighty years ago…the son of Jennie and Adrio “Al” Ridarelli — he grew up in South Philadelphia. He changed his last name in the early 1950s — and by the early 1960s, was considered a teen idol.

Written by the English composer Tony Hatch under the pseudonym Mark Anthony, it was recorded in London, England in February of 1963 — and released as a single in October of that year. I had just turned 15 years young when this was a smash hit — and I remember it all too well. The link is here. It has a very simplistic bass line, which was pretty standard back in the early days of pop/rock — and that’s linked here.

Today’s classical ‘blast from the past’ is a violin concerto that took me almost two decades to get used to — and then finally fall in love with. It’s certainly in the top three violin concertos that I would include in any desert island I happened to be stranded on.

Edward Elgar’s Violin Concerto in B minor, Op. 61, is one of his longest orchestral compositions, and the last of his works to gain immediate popular success.

The Royal Philharmonic Society of London formally commissioned the concerto in 1909. Elgar, despite himself being a violinist, called upon W. H. “Billy” Reed, leader of the London Symphony Orchestra, for technical advice while writing the concerto. Reed helped him with bowings, passage-work and fingerings, playing passages over and over again until Elgar was satisfied with them. Violin virtuoso Fritz Kreisler, to whom the work was dedicated, also made suggestions, some for making the solo part more brilliant and some for making it more playable.

The premiere was at a Royal Philharmonic Society concert on 10 November 1910, with Kreisler and the London Symphony Orchestra conducted by the composer. Reed recalled, “the Concerto proved to be a complete triumph, the concert a brilliant and unforgettable occasion”.

Here’s the incomparable [in every sense of the word!] Nigel Kennedy…who I met when he performed with the Edmonton Symphony Orchestra, which is a lifetime ago now…with the BBC Concert Orchestra, at the Proms — and linked here.

The short sellers of last resort certainly had their hands full in the precious metal market on Friday…starting around 8 a.m. in New York. They managed to put those fires out, but you have to wonder just how much longer they can keep it up considering how quickly things seem to be circling the drain at an ever-increasing rate these days.

Volumes continue to be low, so ‘da boyz’ had an easy time of it again — and how much longer this stint of quiet trading volume will last, remains to be seen.

Some of the commodity-related stories in the Critical Reads section of today’s column give some idea of how critical the shortages are becoming in the industrial metals, with the debacle in the LME nickel market kicking things off. I suspect the copper and zinc markets to get exciting soon — and so it’s only a matter of when before it shows up in silver.

For the second day in a row, the gold price pulled a little further away from its nearest important moving average, which is its 50-day — and it’s 200-day, like I’ve mentioned a couple of times earlier this week, seems like it could be a “bridge too far” for the Big 8 shorts.

I discussed this fact with Ted several times this week, stating my thoughts mentioned above — and although he agreed with me to a point, he’s been through enough of these scenarios over the last four decades that he wasn’t about to underestimate the treachery of the collusive commercial traders.

Silver also moved a tad further away from its 50-day yesterday, but here it would seem like an engineered price decline in it would bear more fruit, as both of silver’s critical moving averages are less a dollar below its Friday close in the May contract.

Despite the decent gain that was allowed in platinum, it’s still a very long way below any moving average that matters but, without doubt, if ‘da boyz’ hadn’t appeared when they did yesterday, it would have closed a very long above all of them.

Palladium on the other hand blew through both its 200 and 50-day moving average yesterday, but was hauled lower and closed below its 50-day. Like platinum, it would have finished at heaven-only-knows what price if a market-clearing event had been allowed to transpire.

Copper closed up 3 cents/pound at $4.72 per — and unlike three of the four precious metals, the world’s banks are actually net long copper by a small amount…about 9 percent of total open interest…using yesterday’s Bank Participation Report data.

WTIC closed up $2.23/barrel at $98.26 per — and still below its 50-day moving average by a bit. But in this commodity, the Bank Participation Report shows that the world’s banks are net short about 21 percent of total open interest in Physical WTI…which is a massive amount.

Here are the 6-month charts for the above Big 6 commodities, thanks to stockcharts.com as always. And, as always, I’ll point out that all the positive price action in both silver and gold that occurred after the 1:30 p.m. EDT COMEX close, doesn’t appear on their respective candles below. Click to enlarge.

There are so many pieces in motion on Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Grand Chessboard” at the moment, it’s impossible to keep track of it all, as new things appear to be popping up almost by the hour it seems.

The “fog of war” continues to surround Russia’ military incursion into the Ukraine — and as many have said…”the first casualty of war is the truth”…so it’s impossible to know what’s really going on. One thing that is for sure about this, is that we’re being lied to on a massive scale…as Jim Rickards pointed out in this article.

But the economic, financial and monetary fall-out from this continues to escalate — and by design in my opinion. The law of unintended consequences is having new chapters written it with each passing day. At some point a critical mass will be reached — and then…?

One thing that is for sure is that the current world order is already in the trash heap of history — and whatever new world order rises from its ashes…the one that Klaus Schwab and his merry band of sociopaths envision, or something else entirely…it’s going to be far more unpleasant than the life we enjoyed before that Covid 19 thingy was foisted on humanity.

The hysteria about the war and shortages of every kind — and their ramifications for all of mankind, is now at a fever pitch — and without doubt will continue non-stop going forward.

As to how far along the path we are to the final denouement remains to be seen, but one has to suspect that there’s much further to go — and much worse to come. Only its form is unknown to us…at least for the moment.

And as I’ve pointed out countless times in the past, somewhere during this process — and at a time when the powers-that-be deem it appropriate, this price management scheme in the precious metals will be cast aside — and the explosion in commodity prices will be on in earnest, to the detriment of everything paper…including our current financial system and it’s associated fiat currencies.

Russia fired the starting pistol for that process about two weeks ago — and it’s a genie that can’t be put back in the bottle.

And as Gandalf the White said in that quote above…”Understand this: Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.”

He would be right about that.

I’m still “all in” in everything precious metal-related, of course — and always hoping/praying that it will be enough.

See you on Tuesday.

Ed