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March 30, 2022 | Deja Vu All Over Again?

Robert Campbell

Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

Home prices have rocketed to record highs – and signs point to more gains.

Property owners have been dancing to a bull market for 10 years now – and when the music finally stops, many are going to find themselves without a chair.

Housing prices could plummet during the next downturn – so this is no time to be complacent.

Then and Now

Like now, California housing prices were booming in 2005 – and when I spoke before a San Diego real estate investment club that year, I predicted CA home prices would fall by 43% during the next correction.

There were over 400 people in the audience – it was standing room only – and most of them thought I was crazy.

But I was close.  From the peak of the market in 2006 to to the bottom in 2012, the median home price in CA fell by a staggering 55%.

What Could Turn this Bull Market into a Bear Market?

It could be higher mortgage rates, a recession, the War in Ukraine – or it could be something completely off the radar that nobody even sees coming right now.

As presented in my book Timing the Real Estate Market, that’s why I suggest you should stay focused on a handful of key housing indicators that are historically well-correlated with price movement.

These key indicators act like a canary in a coal mine.

If the housing market is going to turn down, there will be warning bells going off ahead of time.  So if you are interested in securing a chair for yourself beforehand, I recommend you watch them.


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