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September 9, 2021 | Baltic Dry Freight Index: Marking the Peak for Shortages?

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

Our proprietary model provides Upside Exhaustions at close to important highs, as well as Downside Capitulations near important lows.

Weekly such signals can be timely for trading, but to have it on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily stats is exceptional, and one has been recorded now. And in getting the signal in three time zones its a “Trifecta”, this time a “Sell” indicating a possible cyclical peak.

The last for the BDI was in November 2007. The S&P set its cyclical peak at 1576 on October 11, the economy peaked in that December, and the worst financial calamity since the 1930s followed.

In that fateful December, Harvard’s Greg Mankiw boasted that nothing could go wrong, as the Fed had the “dream team” of economists.

The S&P bottomed at 666 in March 2009.


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September 9th, 2021

Posted In: Charts and Markets - Bob Hoye

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