May 20, 2021 | Gas the Car

The reopening trade continues. You ready?

Jobless claims in the States have fallen to the lowest point in the pandemic. Ontario is announcing its reopening plan. Quebec’s already there. In NYC a mask-burning party took place on East 51st Street. “Vaccinated New Yorkers, liberated by the coronavirus vaccination and repealed protocols, torched their medical, surgical, and cloth face coverings as “Burn, Baby, Burn!” is performed by the iconic musical group, The Trammps,” the promoter gushed. And I hear live fans may be watching the Leafs-Habs game in Montreal.

From a disgraceful start, Canada has now vaxxed half its citizens. By the time Labour Day happens, or even the August holiday, it’s quite likely we’ll have a higher immunity rate than the US (at least for first doses). Canadians are more compliant, after all. Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.

With escape from the slimy little pathogen’s grip come inflation, rate increases, tax hikes (after the election) and sustained market gains as rising corporate profits bring P/E ratios down. As mentioned here, techs are waning and traditional value stocks are ascending. The recent gut-wrenching volatility with cryptos is probably part of this – more proof normal people should not own Bitcoin, that doggy thing, Eth or any of the other 5,000 varieties of fake money recently invented. Oh, and forget NFTs. History will look back on those as true examples of a world that lost its way.

Well, this all means B&D portfolios should end up having a great 2021. We’re certainly on that path now. Those poor homeless moisters who seized on the 20% price drop in downtown condos last November and December will be happy they did so. In contrast, those who fled to non-commutable hick towns where people wear baseball caps backwards, inside their vehicles, may well regret it. Work-from-home is doomed. The real estate price pendulum is about to swing again.

Yesterday we asked about your own WFH experience and intentions in a sloppy little survey. Over 3,400 of you responded, making this as legitimate a sampling on the subject as any other.

The results are below. Some highlights:

First, this blog is a WFH haven with almost 80% claiming work-from-home status – when only 20% of the workforce is in the same boat. Just imagine all the underwear. Three-quarters expect this gig to end, however, being called back to the office full-time or in hybrid way. Two-thirds actually want back in, mostly to see humans again. A third say they’ve suffered because of the isolation and almost an equal number think they are less productive after a year of this Covid incarceration. And check out the vax rates. What an obedient pack of blog dogs!

What does this suggest, coming from an audience of people who are prime WFHers?

Yeah, it can’t last. It won’t. It can’t. We’re not built this way, to work remotely from colleagues, hived off in our own small society, barred from the inconsequential but essential banter of daily lives. People need people. Employers need interacting workers, not maladjusted bots on the other end of a Zoom call, sans pants. The return-to-work event will reinforce the reopening trade, plus mark the unleashing of a torrent of savings. The amount of money transferred from the government to individual bank accounts during the pandemic was epic. It’s estimated we have $200 billion to spend.

In short, this is no year to sit in cash. Q3 and beyond could make history. Now, go service the car and practice flirting.

Garth Turner May 20th, 2021

Posted In: The Greater Fool

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