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July 30, 2020 | Recession Part II

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

As we head into the fall of 2020, the damage from this coronavirus lockdown will begin to make its full impact felt. While about 25 million unemployed receive $600 a week, there remain arguments to reduce that to $200. Meanwhile, the real impact will be witnessed as the eviction moratorium, which lasted for nearly four months, ends as it will raise the risk of many being put out on the street. Over 12 million renters are already behind on rent payments thanks to these lockdowns. The small businesses that are in trouble cast a very dark cloud over commercial real estate. Virtually every small shopping strip even in Florida has signs out for rent.

The total official unemployment figure for the US stands at more than 31 million who have collected unemployment benefits of some form. However, our model shows the real number is closer to 40 million given all the part-time people who were not entitled to unemployment. At the start of the year, the total civil workforce was about 164,606,000. The official unemployment rate is about 19%, but counting the full scope we have reached the same levels of the Great Depression. Small business always suffers the most during such declines disproportionately. This will impact future economic growth.

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July 30th, 2020

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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