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July 17, 2020 | Is $3 Trillion from Fed Going to Save Stock Market?
Bob Hoye
Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.
Social Media spurs run on Chinese banks
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Bob Hoye Archives July 17th, 2020
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Excellent and honest
I have two questions for Bob. This week, US dollar DXY index has been just below 95, about where it was on March 9, just before it skyrocketed to nearly 103 on March 20 coinciding with this year’s equity market lows; March 20 also roughly coincided with a multi-month low in the GDX and a multi-year low in silver. Now it seems that the fantastic rally in the equity markets since the March lows, as well as the out-preforming rallies in GDX and silver, are getting a bit exhausted. Assuming liquidity problems resurface in the next month or so, then is it time to go long “king dollar”, lighten up on GDX and exit silver, as we prepare for the next leg down in the equity markets? My second question. Are the silver bugs getting a bit ahead of themselves? This recent four month spike in silver, from about 12 dollars to 24 dollars, seems very similar to that silver spike in 2016 that ended in tears for the silver bugs.
Bob, I’m confused about the relative price action “within” the PM sector. With gold at or near it’s 2011 high, I would have assumed that the GDX gold miners index would be at 60, not 41 as it is now. And silver in 2011 reached nearly $50 per oz. but it stands at only $23 per oz. today, less than half it’s 2011 high. Will silver and the PM miners catch up to gold bullion, or are these divergences related to hidden weakness in the underlying equity markets?