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May 11, 2020 | It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Home are priced for perfection and few can afford them. I expect prices to decline.
The National Association of Realtors will not like this post, but home prices need to come down, and they will.Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, home prices were on a trend that was unlikely to continue for long.

Median Home Price vs Median Household Income

Median Home Price vs Median Household Income

Median home price vs median household income is another measure that tells the same story.

Median household income series only dates to 1984 and is on an annual basis. The most recent data is for the end of 2018.

Both charts show very stretched valuations.

Home prices have outstripped hourly earnings, household income, and rent.

Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest

On May 3, I commented Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest.

That was not unexpected as Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History.

Job Losses Understated

Unfortunately, the unemployment are and job losses are hugely understated.

For details, please see A 6.4 Million Discrepancy Between Employment and Unemployment

From restaurants to hotels to home buying, Don’t Expect a Return to Normal This Year

So, if you are thinking of buying a home, there’s no reason to rush. Better prices are around the corner.

Mish

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May 11th, 2020

Posted In: Mish Talk

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