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May 27, 2020 | Boeing is the Tip of the Layoff Iceberg

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Boeing announced more layoffs after recording zero orders but 108 cancellations.
Boeing announced over 12,000 Layoffs in the wake of plane cancellations and dearth of new orders.

Boeing Co (BA.N) said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American planemaker restructures in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

The job cuts include more than 9,800 employees in Washington State. Boeing said Wednesday the “several thousand remaining layoffs will come in additional tranches over the next few months.”

Boeing Chief Executive Dave Calhoun told employees in an email the “pandemic’s devastating impact on the airline industry means a deep cut in the number of commercial jets and services our customers will need over the next few years, which in turn means fewer jobs on our lines and in our offices. … I wish there were some other way.”

Boeing expects 737 Max deliveries will start in the third quarter but it does not expect FAA approval until August.

Let’s move beyond airlines for a look at what’s happening.

Sorry We’re Closed 

Sorry We're Closed

Challenger and Gray reports Retail Announces 114,327, Most on Record, as Retailers Close More Stores, File Bankruptcy.

Retailer Pier 1 Imports announced it would close all remaining 540 stores and try to find a buyer for its online business. It follows bankruptcy announcements from JC Penney, J. Crew, and Neiman Marcus.

Retailers have announced 114,327 job cuts through April in 2020, not only the highest January-April total, but also the highest annual total on record. It shatters the previous high of 100,518 cuts announced by Retailers in all of 2003.

Announced Retail Job Cuts Through April 2020

Announced Retail Job Cuts Through April 2020

Lost and Gone Forever

This time, most of these jobs are lost and gone for years, if not forever.

Malls in general are dying.

9,300 stores closed in 2019, breaking the record of 8,000 store closures in 2018. According to Coresight Research, another 15,000 stores could close in 2020.

Fed Can Print Money But It Cannot Print Jobs

That’s a nice saying but I did not come up with it. I can find at least three instances dating back to 2010.

Don’t Worry, the Fed has Belts and Suspenders

One Belt and Multiple Suspenders

However, I can claim a sarcastic Don’t Worry, the Fed has Belts and Suspenders

Unfortunately, all the Fed is doing is creating zombie corporations unable to survive expect with permanently low interest rates.

Grim Economic Data

  1. May 8: Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History
  2. May 15: Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected
  3. May 15: Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years
  4. May 15: GDPNow Forecasts the Economy Shrank by a Record 42%. It’s 41.9% as of May 19.

Ripple Impacts May Last Years

The economic data has been grim and the ripple impacts may last for years.

Global COVID-19 Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion

To understand the total global risk, please see Global COVID-19 Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion

Ripple Impacts 

For a detailed synopsis of the state of the economy and the ripple impacts, please see The Economy Will Not Soon Return to Normal: Here’s Why.

Anyone who expects a fast recovery out of this mess is delusional.


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May 27th, 2020

Posted In: Mish Talk

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