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April 24, 2020 | Over 6% of All Mortgages Now in Forbearance

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Mortgages in forbearance are on a steep rise due to Covid-19.
Black Knight released the following points regarding mortgage forbearance.

  • According to the Black Knight McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of April 23, 2020, more than 3.4 million homeowners – or 6.4% of all mortgages – have entered into COVID-19 mortgage forbearance plans
  • This population represents $754 billion in unpaid principal and includes 5.6% of all GSE-backed loans and 8.9% of all FHA/VA loans
  • At today’s level, mortgage servicers are bound to advance $2.8 billion of principal and interest payments per month to holders of government-backed securities on COVID-19-related forbearances
  • Another $1.3 billion per month in lost funds is faced by those with portfolio-held or privately-securitized mortgages
  • Ginnie Mae had announced a pass through assistance program through which it will advance principal and interest payments to investors on behalf of servicers and FHFA very recently announced that P&I advance payments will be capped at four months for servicers of GSE-backed mortgages.
  • Given FHFA’s recently announced four-month limit on advance obligations, servicers of GSE-backed mortgages could still face more than $7 billion in advances based on the number of forbearance plans thus far
  • Regardless of a borrower’s forbearance status, servicers of loans in government-backed securities must make advance principal and interest (P&I) payments each month for these loans. 

Forbearance Totals

Mortgage Forbearance Totals 2020-04-23

Estimated Monthly Advances

Estimated Monthly Advances 2020-04-23

For now, advances from GSE servicers will cover forbearances.

But only for 4 months and it will not cover any losses from those advances.

Servicers of lenders of non-GSE loans have additional issues.

Mish

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April 24th, 2020

Posted In: Mish Talk

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