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April 3, 2020 | Iran & War

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for Iran back in 2012 has been correct. It picked 2016 which in January the International economic sanctions on Iran were lifted after UN said it was satisfied with progress on fulfilling the nuclear agreement. President Rouhani then embarked on the first European state visit of an Iranian president for 16 years. But that same month is when the serious rift in relations took place after Saudi Arabia executed a leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. During May 2017,  Hassan Rouhani won re-election as president.= and by June that is when there was a co-ordinated attack on parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. That is when the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. That sparked major protests in December 2017 over economic grievances. The next year in 2018, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran in turn warned that it will begin increasing its uranium enrichment capacity if the deal collapses as a result of the US move.

I have followed your report and it has been truly remarkable for someone that is covering the entire world. My question is now, your array showed the 2016 turning point which was amazing, but it also showed 2020. There are increasing tensions once again. Do you have an update on this forecast?

Thank you

ABSR

ANSWER: There is a rising tide in Iran toward a confrontation. In February 2020, the hardliners scored big wins in parliamentary elections, but this was with a record low turnout of only 42.6% while any moderate would-be candidates were barred from running for not meeting strict eligibility criteria.

Back in 2013, the State Department blew everyone away after admitting that they officially and intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing to mislead the press over the Iranian nuclear deal under the Obama Administration. Then in 2o16, Iran also tried to sell oil in euros in a futile attempt to end oil’s link to the dollar. They clearly failed to understand this was not a SERIOUS blow to the USA, but in fact, they took on the currency risk of the euro and lost.

It appears that 2020 is the low for oil and we should see tension rise sharply with Iran which will help oil into 2024.

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April 3rd, 2020

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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