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April 10, 2020 | Can the Fed Stop a Recession?
Bob Hoye
Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.
Bailouts, Hot Cars, IPO Goes Bust
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Bob Hoye Archives April 10th, 2020
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I have two questions for Bob. It feels like the “other shoe is about to drop” in the equities markets. Can the recent lows in equities be broken and how long in duration can this bear market extend? My second question. As of Monday, it looked like a triple top in the GDX year to date; can we expect a retest of the lows in the gold miners and silver, assuming the “second shoe” drops in the overall equity markets?
Bob, as I watch this worldwide bear market unfold, I am amazed how the US tech stocks seem invincible, barely encountering a bump in the road. For example, as of Wednesday, Apple is down less than 3% YTD and still up 40% over the past year. Tesla is still up 74% year to date and up 170% over the past year. However, in the bear markets that commenced in 2000 and 2008, the high flying tech stocks declined between 50% and 80% before those bear markets ended. Do these “high flyers” have some catching up to do in terms of further declines or are they the new “safe havens”?