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April 23, 2020 | A Home Sales Crash is On the Way: Let’s Discuss the Impact

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Existing home sales fell to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 5.27 million compared to an estimated 5.335 million SAAR.
The lead chart is from the NAR.

  • In March, single-family sales were down 8.1% and condominiums sales were down 11.7% compared to last month.
  • Compared to a year ago. single-family home sales were up 1.3% while condominium sales were down 3.6%
  • Single-family homes had an increase in price up 8.1% at $282,500 and condominiums rose 7.9% at $263,400 from March 2020.

Econoday economists expected existing home sales to decline 7.5%.

Things were a bit worse than expected in March. April and May rate to be disasters.

Understanding the Economic Impact

From a household formation aspect (starting a family), new home sales arguably matter more. But in terms of sheer numbers, resales dwarf new home sales.

For example, February new home sales were 765,000 SAAR vs 5.76 million SAAR existing home sales.

What Happens on Existing Home Sale?

  1. New Carpet
  2. New Kitchen
  3. New Appliances
  4. New Bathrooms
  5. New Furniture
  6. Painting
  7. Landscaping

Not all of those things happen on a home resale. But some of them happen on nearly every resale.

Few if any of those things happen on new home sales because things are generally all inclusive.

Home Sale Crash Coming

A home sale crash is coming, both new and existing.

Given that new home sales are recorded at offer acceptance and existing home sales recorded at closing, the existing home sale crash may lag a bit, spread over more months.

Mish

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April 23rd, 2020

Posted In: Mish Talk

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