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March 9, 2020 | Coronavirus to Subside in April

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

We have been in contact with very high-level people and the expectation is that the coronavirus (COVID-19) will subside in April with the normal flu season. This may be more in line with our model which is pointing to 2022 as the worst in such disease periods. Diseases of this nature love cold weather. They do not thrive in warming periods. This is why the flu season comes at the end of the summer.

However, one of the surprising features of the coronavirus was how few children seemed to have been identified as infected. This is very unusual compared to influenza which children normally contract. While both the flu and COVID-19 may be transmitted in similar ways, there is also a possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route, meaning that tiny droplets remaining in the air could cause disease in others even after the ill person is no longer near.

As it stands now, the COVID-19 has been approximately 107,644 cases worldwide with 437 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 8, 2020. The flu, on the other hand, is estimated to have reached 1 billion cases worldwide with 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

While the market crash has been blamed on the COVID-19, this is really just an excuse for a market that was ripe for a correction anyway.

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March 9th, 2020

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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