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March 18, 2020 | Are We There Yet?

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of the Independent Speculator. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. The average of the yearly gains published for the flagship Casey publication, the International Speculator, was 18.5% per year during Tiggre’s time with the publication. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of IndependentSpeculator.com services going forward. Another key feature is that Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them

With another epic meltdown under way on Wall Street today, a lot of people are asking me if it’s time to start scooping up the great bargains already available in some of the very best gold and silver stocks.

It’s a fair question.

And make no mistake; I’m more bullish than ever on gold—and silver!—presenting us with an historic opportunity to profit after the current liquidity crunch passes.

There are indeed some terrific bargains on the table today. But neither of the two criteria that would make me a buyer, generally speaking, have been met yet.

I did just publish a Market Meltdown Shopping List with triggers and price targets for subscribers to The Independent Speculator, including an experimental new bottom-fishing method I’m testing out.

But no, I haven’t bought anything yet.

Some readers have pushed back, saying that the selloff is the result of hysteria and already a great buying opportunity.

I’d agree with that if mainstream equities hadn’t been so grossly overvalued before this crisis. As is, the meltdown seems almost reasonable, as valuations come back to earth.

But what about the hammering gold and silver stocks have taken—isn’t that clearly panic, just as the metals themselves are preparing to make a record bull run that will eclipse 2009-2011?

No, not really. No.

I’ve spoken with people who’ve been forced to sell by margin calls. They weren’t panicking. They didn’t want to sell at all. They had no choice.

The same goes for funds facing redemptions; they have no choice.

So yes, my favorite stocks are already on sale.

But that doesn’t mean things can’t get much cheaper—much cheaper.

That doesn’t mean I’m not tempted… but I remember that every time I thought something was a great buy in 2008, it went and got cheaper.

At some point when everything’s stupid-cheap, I might just start buying anyway. But we’re not there yet.

Remember, we were told during the president’s briefing today that US testing is ramping up, and that 7% of cases are testing positive. They say that’s because we’re not testing everyone, but only those suspected of being sick. Fine. But it still implies a huge increase in US cases—as we just saw in New York. Everyone “knows” this, but I still think the markets will fall off another cliff as these numbers start crossing the wires.

This means that for now, there’s a lot more immediate downside risk than upside.

So for now, I’m just not interested in buying anything. The knives are still falling.

I might look at it differently if I didn’t already own some great gold and silver stocks, in which case a first stake on a down day like today might make sense. But even then, I’d still be clear in my head that everything might still go a lot lower before the real rally in gold and silver takes off again.

Key Point: we have very specific—and I think, highly likely—reasons for expecting lower prices in the very near term.

There is absolutely no reason I can see to hope for better than another dead-cat bounce tomorrow.

I don’t know what will happen.

No one does.

But I can easily see already panicked investors surrendering to total capitulation if the news in the days ahead pushes them over the edge.

Are we there yet?

No.

Just, no.

That’s my take,

 

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March 18th, 2020

Posted In: Louis James

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