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February 12, 2020 | The Economic Confidence Model & the Shift in Trend

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

While we took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks during July 1985 to announce the beginning of the Private Wave stating that the dollar had peaked (followed by the Plaza Accord 6 weeks later), the ECM has been remarked on around the world for its turning points. Money Week even got the forecast right that October 1st, 2015 would mark the start of the debt bubble in Europe. It was accelerated by the introduction of negative interest rates by the ECB and, of course, the very day of the Russian troops entering Syria and Merkel’s opening of the flood gates which unleashed the massive immigration into Europe which has been the very cause of BREXIT and the rising tensions amount member states.

This shift in trend is going to be profound for the pressure within the world economy has restarted and with a fervor. This has marked not just the very day of the Impeachment with Trump that set in motion the decline and fall of democracy and then followed by BREXIT 2 weeks later, but we are watching international capital flows intensify once again driving the US yield curve back toward an inverted position which has nothing to do with the recession.

The confrontation that the Democrats have taken against Trump is really the total destruction of government and we can easily see what 2032 will be all about. There is no going back. With Bernie Sanders winning New Hampshire and the left rising within the Democratic Party, they knew well that they stand ZERO chance of beating Trump. Their strategy was to try to remove him to influence the 2020 election themselves doing the very thing they accused Trump of doing. The Democrats are desperate and the moderates fear their party is moving toward Marxism and thus the conspiracy builds to draft Hillary in hopes that the primaries will remain in chaos. With hindsight, we will look back upon this date as the day democracy truly died. Bernie & the left are desperately trying to recreate the old soviet union converting the United States into his life-long dream. (Bernie praises the Soviet Union). Bernie is at least honest. This has been his dream.

Meanwhile, the finances in Europe are beyond comprehension. The Euro has been in a free-fall despite the biased media all running headline that it is Britain who made the wrong decision. They are desperately trying to distract the people from the fall in the Euro and the capital flight which has been creating the drive into the US treasuries. On top of that, the REPO crisis has expanded as fear over European banks continues to escalate. So welcome to the new wave that began January 18, 2020.

Some people will ALWAYS desperately try to paint the ECM as wrong or attack me personally when they cannot argue with the forecasts. This is simply the dark side of human nature which will always fight against the light. They are of the same character who killed people for arguing the world was round and not flat. They burned Bruno alive and rejoiced in his pain.

Why these types of people will always try to prevent any advancement in understanding anything is truly astonishing. It is hard to comprehend why they refuse to ever listen. What do they have to gain other than refusing to believe something?

There always must be a dark v light confrontation for that is the very essence of what makes the cycle function. So when they cannot challenge the message, they turn to hatred of the messenger.

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February 12th, 2020

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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