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January 30, 2020 | World Commerce to Slow Dramatically Soon!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

Image result for our markets are slowing and this suggests safe havens going forward

I now envision a significant slowing in our world economy for 2020. The Baltic Dry Index is now at 525 and this indicates a recession coming in 2020. This index is a leading indicator of commerce for our world. The other significant factor is this recent pathogen called the Coronavirus. Fear is entering our marketplace as new developments restricting travel evolves daily.

Flights to China and flights from China will lessen and this creates some ‘fear’ within our markets. Fear means that the status quo investments will be exchanged for ‘safe haven’ investments. Cash is KING during the coming period and all the other ‘safe havens’ will also benefit from this ‘fear’ situation.

As I write the World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus a global health emergency.
The Wall Street Journal reports that flights are being stopped/cancelled at many venues.

The handwriting is on the wall. Commerce is slowing and by the end of February we could see clear signs of the coming recession. All this means that the status quo will change and the mindset of investors will change. Fear will move our markets but in new directions. Safe Haven commodities and this medium called ‘cash’ will be in demand.

Check here for the current level of the Baltic Dry Index. This index is a leading indicator of global commerce. This index has crashed to 525 indicating that trade has slowed and is slowing significantly.

Wisdom now suggests that our prior cycle of prosperity is essentially over. The eleven year cycle of growth is ending. It is ending with a major ‘black swan’ health event. It will be another year before we have a vaccine for this virus called the coronavirus. This means that it will grow and be significant for all of 2020. Fear has now entered our marketplace and I can sense it as I listen to the news.

The vast majority of our investors will ignore the signs for now. But I would suggest that those with some wisdom will act now to change their portfolios. It’s time for ‘safe haven’ assets to shine. You choose what you think is a ‘safe haven’. Even a bottle of Jack Daniels Black could serve as a ‘safe haven’ in the coming recession/depression. Choose what you think will help you sleep at night.

The evidence is clear to me. Our markets are changing and investor sentiment is also changing. We could witness a recession by mid 2020 and this has meaning for Mr. Trump, the Democrats, and the general public. It’s the economy ‘stupid’ is the mantra of our politicians. I agree. The economy is key to all change. Have a good day and watch this pathogen called the coronavirus as it changes our markets. I am:

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January 30th, 2020

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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