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January 10, 2020 | Abrupt Swings in Weather from Cold to Heat

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

QUESTION: Does your computer show that the major trend is down toward cooling and in the process were are getting these wild swings from new record colds to one-day wonders of hot?

Thank you


ANSWER: Yes, the broader trend is cooling thanks to the solar minimum. But there are also wild swings from new record lows to a single day of record high temperatures. This is similar to what was taking place during the 1930s. There was the dust bowl with drought and heat in the summer, and the winters were still the coldest on record which we have not yet reached on a sustained basis. It is just nonsense to claim that the violent swings from cold to heat are caused by us driving cars around when that pattern has taken place throughout history.

Storms are also not an indication of CO2 levels as they are claiming. There was the famous Spanish Treasure Ship fleet where all 11 ships were sunk in the Hurricane of 1715. The list of the worst storms from the 19th century forward is 1804, 1806, 1821, 1900, 1903, 1938, 1944, 1955, 1960, 1999, 2011, and 2012. The worst hurricane was 1900 insofar if the measurement is the number of people dead which reached 12,000 in Galveston, Texas.

1938 Hiricane New England

The 1938 New England Hurricane pictured here was far worse than anything we have seen in my lifetime. Computer models rooted in cyclical analysis with a long database simply reveal that there is really nothing new in weather that we have not seen before.

The bottom line is rather clear. The broader trend is moving colder. That does not mean that there will be days where the temperature will swing abruptly to a record high. We are looking at sustained trends, not a single day that makes a record low or high. It is sustained trends, not just the volatility.

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January 10th, 2020

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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