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December 12, 2019 | UK General Election 2019 FINAL Seats Per Political Party Forecast

Nadeem Walayat

Nadeem Walayat is the Editor of The Market Oracle, with over 20 years experience of trading derivates and portfilio management.

FINAL SEATS PER POLITICAL PARTY FORECAST

This is my final seats per political party forecast based on extensive analysis published at the market MarketOracle.co.uk website over the past 3 weeks a fraction of which was posted to youtube.

The whole of this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work that includes my final seats forecast at 12pm on the 11th of December 2019.

 

UK General Election Tory Seats Forecasts

  1. UK House Prices 322 – UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 – What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats (326) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (330) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Opinion Polls (339)Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

The whole of this analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

The above average to 325.3 Tory seats. Now I could attempt to weight the various seats projections in favour of the direction towards my core forecast. But 35+ years of market analysis experience tells me that weighting does NOT WORK. All that happens is that the analyst skews results in favour of the direction that the analyst most favours.

Next is whether to round 325.3 down or up. On the basis of the sum of my analysis my preference is to round the average number upwards.

Therefore my FINAL FORECAST CONCLUSION is that the Tories will win 326 seats at the 12th December General Election. And even if they miss this forecast by as many as 4 seats i.e. converge lower towards my core house prices based forecast of 322. Then they will still be able to govern as a minority government. Also note that my final forecast conclusion only deviates from my original UK house prices based forecast of 24th November by just 4 seats i.e. 326 vs 322.

With my final tory seats forecast settled I can now fill in the blanks for what the other parties are likely to achieve.

Election Betting Markets

Since my core forecast was published on the 24th of November then the consistently favoured betting range has been for 320 to 329 seats, at my last update of 9th of December the betting markets were still offering great risk vs reward odds of 8.2 for this Tory seats range.

The current state of the betting markets have tightened in the most probable ranges following the Yougov MRP poll that slashed 20 seats off their expected Tory tally. With my core range 320-329 tightening from 8.2 to 6.4. The hedge range of 310-319 falling from 14.5 to 12. And the other hedge bet of 330-339 also tightening from 6 to 5.3. Though all still offer decent risk vs rewards i.e. the core range of 320-329 would resolve in a £10 bet resulting in a £54 profit (plus stake).

Remember folks when placing bets one is GAMBLING! So there is always the risk of losing ones stake, especially when one is betting on outliers which virtually all of the range bets are.

HEDGING BETS

Whilst my forecast expectation is for 320-329. However, as is the case when trading markets, it can be wise to hedge positions when opportunities present themselves. For instance the next most probable ranges are 310-319 and 330-339, which are still offering decent hedging odds. To illustrate how I have hedged this election then here is a list of all of my open bets placed mostly over the past week with one popular betting site, which also illustrates the point that I do tend to put my money where my mouth is so if my forecast proves wrong then I WILL LOSE MONEY!

And where the financial markets are concerned, I doubt the election result will have any significant impact on either the FTSE and sterling, perhaps a relief bounce that the outcome is not as bad as it could have been.

Remember folks betting on elections is GAMBLING! And with the election out of the way then my focus will return to the markets with look at the stock market (Dow) and Gold.

The whole of this analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem’s forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook’s in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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December 12th, 2019

Posted In: The Market Oracle

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