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December 31, 2019 | New Frontier for the Oilsands

There’s a constant lack of long-term thinking, and business basics, on the part of so many vocal opponents of major resource projects. Time and again, they look at current (or outdated) market prices for oil and natural gas, ignore expert projections for prices 10 and 20 and further years down the road, assume demand for […]

December 31, 2019 | Jim Bianco Says This Is QE, Like Y2K

In contrast to Hussman, Jim Bianco, at Bianco Research says the Fed’s repo actions are QE. Earlier today I posted, Hussman Sides with Powell: It’s Not QE4. If Hussman convinced you the Fed was not conducting QE, I will give you a chance to change your mind again. “Not QE” Looks a Lot Like Y2K This […]

December 31, 2019 | Major Pairs Summary

December 31, 2019 | Repo Crisis for Year-End

  The Repo Crisis for year-end has had the Fed pumping in a staggering amount of about $234 billion into the repo markets. They are exchanging high-quality capital for cash to suppress market volatility and maintain the central bank’s overnight funds level, which is used as a benchmark for multiple other short-term interest rates within […]

December 31, 2019 | Leaping Finance Costs are Canary in Coal Mine for Highly Indebted Corporate Sector

Over the past 21 months, selling in ‘junk’ grade CCC corporate bonds has pushed their prices down and average yield up from 7.7% in February 2018 to 11.31% by November 2019—a massive 46% increase in borrowing costs for highly indebted companies. Over the same period, the yields on BB bonds rose 11% and BBBs an […]

December 31, 2019 | What To Expect In Early 2020

The US stock market has recently rallied throughout most of the last year after the very deep downside price rotation in late 2018.  Our researchers believe there is a very high likelihood of this trend continuing in early 2020, yet we would need to see confirmation across various broader indicators before we could determine the […]

December 31, 2019 | Gold, Silver, Inflation, and Brexit

2019 Economy vs. 2020 Economy

December 31, 2019 | Trump’s Economic Policies Made 2019 Great

Non QE, QE will help the New Year economically

December 30, 2019 | The Biggest Winner of an End to the Trade War?

I’ve heard financial talking heads attributing Wall Street’s December rally to the end of the trade war. I think it’s got a lot more to do with the Fed moving to stealth QE and negative real rates—and setting the bar quite high for even considering a change in policy. This has very important implications for […]

December 30, 2019 | How to Make Money: Buy Companies That Are Worthless

  Companies with tangible net value of less that zero have increasingly outperformed the market for decades. Bloomberg comments Capitalists Without Capital Are Ruling Capitalism Some 40% of public stocks quoted in the U.S. have negative tangible book value, meaning that their tangible assets aren’t worth enough to repay all their debt. Two decades ago, this […]

December 30, 2019 | Different Acronyms, Same Disaster: Bond Ratings Are Once Again For Sale

Of all the amazing scenes in The Big Short, a film about the genesis of the Great Recession, arguably the most shocking is the meeting between a couple of hedge fund managers trying to understand the housing bubble and “Georgia,” a (in a bit of symbolic overkill) visually-impaired executive with the Standard & Poor’s bond […]

December 30, 2019 | Metals & Miners Prepare For An Early 2020 Liftoff

Over the moderately quiet 2019 Christmas holiday season, while the US and global stock markets continue to push higher, precious metals and miners have begun to move dramatically higher as fear settles into the markets.  Our researchers believe this upside move in metals and miners represents a measured increase in investor concern related to early […]

December 30, 2019 | Hillary For President 2020

QUESTION: Hi Marty do you think the probability Hillary will go for presidency in Jan/feb 2020 has increased? Is that really a possibility? Then on top of that in one of your blogs you said something could happen to Trump in 2022 which means he will be respected in 2020. Thank you for your answer […]

December 30, 2019 | The Stampede

The common wisdom on The Street is Trump’s a cinch in November. Confidence that the growth-at-all-costs president will win in the coming election is part of the reason investors think markets will melt up in the next few months. After all, it’s the economy, stupid. Unemployment’s at a 50-year low. Corps are making big bucks. […]

December 30, 2019 | US Dollar in 2020, Canadian Dollar, Gold

Crude Oil, Interest Rates

December 29, 2019 | Little Room for Contrarians as Year Ends

After watching the bull market break all the rules for the last ten years, we know better than to think that even the most formidable-looking technical barrier will slow it down for more than a day or two. Indeed, seldom have we seen prices fall for three consecutive days — a rarity even in the […]

December 29, 2019 | The Security Blanket

In a day or two you’ll get the Greater Fool FFPs (Fearless Foolish Predictions) for 2020. Here’s a preview. One of them will be a market melt-up, for at least the first few months of the year. No recession. No shocks. Except Trump, maybe. How best to take advantage of economic growth, rising asset values […]

December 28, 2019 | Bills Now Due on Vacant Useless Chinese Properties

After years of malinvestment, the bills are now coming due in China. With more than $6 trillion worth of debt, Chinese SOEs and cities find it increasingly difficult to meet payment deadlines. Malinvestments aside, the Bills Come Due for China’s Local Governments. For decades, local governments in China borrowed heavily to build urban infrastructure, helping to […]

December 28, 2019 | Lowering Sick-Care Costs Through Healthful Habits

Chronic diseases are the most common and costly of all health problems, and they are also the most preventable.  According to the CDC’s National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP), health-damaging but modifiable behaviours like tobacco use, insufficient physical activity, poor eating habits, and excessive alcohol use–are responsible for much of the illness, […]

December 28, 2019 | Understanding Cycles

  QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I met someone who used to work for you. He said your models are far more complex than anyone imagines and that it is not a simple algorithm. He said you have relied on quantum mechanics which is why nobody has been able to duplicate what you do. Would you care to comment? […]

December 28, 2019 | This Week in Money

December 28, 2019 | Santa Kicks Ass

As we head toward year end markets in general are enjoying a better than usual “Santa Claus rally” as equity funds buy winners to look smart in year end reporting and retail chases momentum stocks. There is a lot of index chasing going on. The biggest stocks with the greatest past outperformance are attracting the […]

December 28, 2019 | Trading Desk Notes December 28, 2019

The most important message from the financial markets in 2019 was, “Don’t Fight The Fed.” The 180 degree turn in Federal Reserve policy…the Powell Pivot…caused markets to realized that it was, once again, “All About The Central Banks.” In December 2018 the Fed raised interest rates and indicated that they expected to be raising rates in 2019…but […]

December 27, 2019 | WARNING: Rare Earths Are Not Rare—But They Are Difficult

  The US-China trade war seems to have reminded investors that China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earth elements (REEs). This vital supply has been restricted before, as the Chinese reminded us all a few months ago, prompting the US military to invest in building REE processing facilities in the US. No surprise, then, […]

December 27, 2019 | Investigating Alleged Smart Money Positions in Gold

What if anything does does the futures position of commercial hedgers say about the price of gold? I received the following email from Tom McClellan with his thoughts on gold. The emphasis in italics below is mine. It is on points I am going to dispute. Gold Cot Data Calls for More of a Drop […]

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