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November 20, 2019 | Trade-Deal Imbeciles Rule the Headlines if Not the Stock Market

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Just for fun, I often try to guess why stocks supposedly have gone up or down on a given day before checking to see how the ‘experts’ have explained it. Half of them appear to be card-carrying imbeciles; the other half, pathetic dolts whose job requires them to explain the stock market’s wacky gyrations in agreed-on terms that all of us supposedly can understand. Let me suggest that you save your breath, guys, because you will never, ever get it right, unless by accident. For in demonstrable fact, stocks fluctuate for reasons that none of us will ever fully comprehend. Technical analysis accepts this and moves on; good technical analysts calls the turns correctly without claiming to know why or how. Suffice it to say, mysterious cosmic forces cause stocks to fluctuate.  Thus, seen from the perspective of my own forecasting system, stocks fell for the last two days and are threatening to keep falling simply because the broad averages had reached potentially important Hidden Pivot rally targets. They were billboarded here as early as six weeks ago, and so far they’ve caught tops in the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials within hundredths of a percentage point.

Hope Is Fading!

So what are the aforesaid imbeciles and dolts saying about this decline?  You guessed it! It reflects “fading hopes” that the U.S. and China will successfully conclude a trade deal. Of course, even the imbeciles cannot believe such claptrap any longer, and both they and the dolts must realize by now that the talks are being stage-managed to drag on till the end of time. To fully appreciate how stupid trade-deal spin has become, we need only consider that the stock market is trading higher than it was before the tariff war began. Shares mostly rose while the matter remained unsettled, stumbling only momentarily when China appeared to tell Trump there would be no deal. But even that downer has lost its hold on Wall Street’s giddy permabulls. Regardless, stocks will turn higher when cosmic karma decrees that it is time. This is all but ordained because, as I’ve mentioned here before, and if for no other reason, AAPL must reach a minimum 283.97 before the fat lady sings. When bullish fever returns, so, inevitably, will headlines that say talks with China are back on track. If you actually believe such hogwash, you are likely to be among those who will stay fully invested until the next bear market hits bottom.

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November 20th, 2019

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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