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November 15, 2019 | GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
 

GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates.

The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%.

Pat Higgins at GDPow explains:

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning’s retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning’s industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.”

Real gross private domestic development is now clocking at -4.4%.

Wow.

Recession Warnings

A bit ago I noted Industrial Production Dives and It’s Not All Strike Related.

Trucking provide another recession warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month

Donald Broughton, founder of Broughton Capital and author the Cass Freight Index says the index signals contraction, possibly by the end of the year. That’s just one one month away.

Strike Resolved

The GM strike is resolved. We will soon find out how much strike-related damage there was, but the risk is over-estimating the rebound going forward.

The trade deal with China is still unresolved.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 15th, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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