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November 21, 2019 | Existing Home Sales Rise on Easy Comparisons

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

NAR spokesman Lawrence Yun was singing the praises of of a rebound in housing today. But comparisons are easy.

Mortgage News Daily reports Existing Home Sales Resume Gains, Realtors Say More to Come.

Existing-home sales got back on track in October, partially recovering from a 2.2 percent slip in September that ended a two-month winning streak. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million during the month, a 1.9 percent increase from September. This put sales 3.6 percent higher than the 5.22 million rate of sales in October 2018.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said this sales increase is encouraging and he expects added growth in the coming months. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Yun. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $270,900, up 6.2% from last October’s median of $255,100. Prices rose in all regions. It was the 92nd straight month of annual price gains. The median existing single-family home price was up 6.2 percent to $273,600 and condo prices grew 5.6 percent to a median of $248,500.

Inventories softened again, declining 2.7 percent from September’s 4.1-month supply to 1.77 million units or a 3.9-month supply at the current rate of sales. In October 2018 there was a 4.3-month supply at 1.85 million units.

Expect Crowing in January

A quick glance at a chart from the October Existing Home Sales report by the National Association of Realtors shows sales are up year-over-year due to easy comparisons.

There are three more months of easy comparisons coming up.

January will provide the best opportunity for crowing even if sales falter.

Meanwhile, prices keep ticking up.

Existing Home Sales Median Price Year Over Year 2019-11

Existing Home Sales Median Price Year Over Year

Any alleged “affordability” on homes due to falling interest rates is chewed up with price increases.

This is why sales flatlined for years.

Housing Bubble Reblown

The Fed managed to re-blow the housing bubble.

The Last Chance for a Good Price Was 7 Years Ago.

Don’t expect a huge housing boom any time soon. And contrary to widespread NAR propaganda, this is not a good time to buy a home.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 21st, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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