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November 18, 2019 | Dow Move Above Some Big Obstacles Would Likely Clinch 30,000

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

The S&P mini-futures topped three ticks from an important rally target on Monday while the Dow missed a corresponding target by less than two hundredths of a percent. Is this the Mother of All Tops? Probably not, if for no other reason that we cannot expect to nail the top of a bull market that has been making record highs for more than a decade –especially when we’re fixated on a price target that has been drum-rolled here for weeks.  Even so, those who shorted the E-Mini S&Ps at their intraday high reaped easy gains and could roll up even bigger gains if the high is not breached on Tuesday. My hunch is that it will be, but that significantly higher prices over the near term are moat unlikely until stocks have had a painful correction. It is not merely because important Hidden Pivot targets have been reached, but also long-term trendlines that stretch back for years. Together they offer resistance that is most unlikely to give way easily, even if bulls marginally penetrate it over the next few days. If I am wrong and buyers shred these obstacles as though they did not exist, you can infer the Dow is on its way to at least 30,000, a seven percent rise from current levels.

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November 18th, 2019

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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