- the source for market opinions


October 3, 2019 | Gold Peaks: What Does the Past Tell Us About the Future?

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of the Independent Speculator. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. The average of the yearly gains published for the flagship Casey publication, the International Speculator, was 18.5% per year during Tiggre’s time with the publication. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of services going forward. Another key feature is that Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them

I’m known for finding ways to profit under any market conditions, not for making a wild predictions about what will be. But as a speculator, I do have to make projections about future prices. So in January, I published a report making the case that 2019 would be the year gold would break out.

I was right.

After the June breakout, I updated my report, saying that it’s not too late to profit from the new bull market in gold and silver. After the August highs, I said that with a terrific start to the year in hand, precious metals were likely to correct, creating great entry points for those just getting on board.

I was right again—and I wrote about putting my money where my keyboard is.

Today, my view is that gold and silver will go much higher over the next few years. All the reasons given in my reports remain valid. Recent economic data, including the major deceleration in China, the EU tipping on the edge of recession, and a slew of recession warning signals hitting the US—all this and more reinforces my analysis.

So if I’m right yet again, what would it look like?

Well, I want to be clear that I’m not joining the prediction racket. But just for fun, we can look at what past gold bulls suggest about the potential for the new one we’re in…



Several things stand out in this chart. The big one is that the current bull really is just getting going. We’re up only 42%, starting from the $1,049.40 low on December 17, 2015.

The second one is that the most recent gold bull, from 2001 to 2011, also had a long, slow start. Being the nearest in time, it’s reasonable to see it as the most relevant example. And it started accelerating upward at just about the same point where we are now.

The third is the potential upside. If today’s bull were to resemble any of the past bulls in the chart, the gains would take gold to these new peaks:

  • 1974, 462% equivalent peak: $5,897.63
  • 1980, 721% equivalent peak: $8,615.57
  • 2011, 595% equivalent peak: $7,293.33

A gold bull like the least of those above would take gold to $5,898 per ounce. And that’s just the metal itself.

Imagine what gold rocketing up to $8,616 would do to the best, highly leveraged gold stocks…

At this point, the standard newsletter sales pitch would be to cherry-pick some of the biggest wins from past bull markets and tell you that you have to subscribe today or miss out on your chance to bag such gains.

“You could make XX,XXX% if you buy now!”

The truth, of course, is that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Worse, no one can promise to have any of the big 20x, 50x, or 100x winners among their stock picks. We can all say that our picks might contain moonshots like that, and that’s true. The word “might” makes almost any claim impossible to falsify.

I’ll just say that I’m confident that my gold and silver stocks—into which I’ve put my own hard-earned cash—have excellent potential to deliver extraordinary gains in the near term.

But heck, maybe you’re a better stock-picker than I am.

My point today is just to illustrate conceptually—like a “scoping” study on a gold deposit—what this gold bull could deliver for us.

There’s another key takeaway from all this, one you don’t need me or any newsletter writer at all to make use of.

Look at the chart again…

Gold itself could hit it out of the ballpark for you. And silver typically outperforms gold, on a percent gain basis.

We’re at a unique point in time when we can not only buy the metals as a prudent way to protect savings, we can buy them as speculations as well.

Gold and silver could yield gains on the order of a great discovery, with:

  • No exploration risk.
  • No danger of an endangered mosquito killing the deal.
  • No possibility of gold or silver going bankrupt.
  • No chance that gold or silver prices will drop to zero.

Could I be wrong? Of course. I do not claim to know the future.

All I claim is that the rising tide of geopolitical madness and the falling tide of global economic activity is very bullish for precious metals. The metals themselves have become relatively low-risk speculations with potentially high yields.

And it’s hard for me to imagine a better speculation than one I’d buy for prudence anyway.

But personally, I’m at a stage in my life when I’m looking to amass wealth, not just protect what I have. That’s why I’m looking to deploy as much of my own cash as I can into the best gold and silver stocks I can identify. Everything I’ve learned in my years in this business tells me that these will multiply the gains I see coming in the metals themselves.

You can join me in that by subscribing to The Independent Speculator, or go it alone.

The basic idea, I’m giving you for free.

Caveat emptor,

Lobo Tiggre Signature

STAY INFORMED! Receive our Weekly Recap of thought provoking articles, podcasts, and radio delivered to your inbox for FREE! Sign up here for the Weekly Recap.

October 3rd, 2019

Posted In: Louis James

Post a Comment:

Your email address will not be published.

All Comments are moderated before appearing on the site


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.