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September 18, 2019 | Apple Sucks, but It’s Still Going to at Least $242

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

 

Because Apple’s story has grown dull as dirt, it is appropriate that we focus on the company’s shares as a key bull-market bellwether. Portfolio managers are surely aware that iPhone sales are weakening and that the Cupertino giant has lost its way as an innovator. Nor can any of them be excited by Apple’s belated move into streaming content (competing as a discounter, it would appear).  And yet, institutional investors seem to have no qualms about throwing vast quantities of Other People’s Money at AAPL to keep it buoyant, and about buying dips that they themselves have engineered.

A Lazy Bull

This is a lazy way to keep the bull market going, and it is why we should be skeptical of every uptick. However, my current outlook says AAPL is headed at least 10% higher, to exactly 242.48. If this prediction proves correct it would mean the Dow and the S&Ps are going higher as well, even if not as steeply. Notice in the chart that the stock impaled the red line last week on the way up. That’s what I call a midpoint Hidden Pivot, and when it is trashed on first contact as occurred here, one can infer with confidence that the ‘D’  target of the pattern — in this case 242.48 — will be reached.

This is hard to believe, given that housing, autos, manufacturing and maybe even consumer spending have peaked.  I’ll put aside my gut feeling for now, though, and go with the charts, since they have rarely failed me.

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September 18th, 2019

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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