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July 15, 2019 | How Long Can Artificially Low Interest Rates be Maintained?

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

QUESTION:

Dear Martin,

First let me thank you for your paradigm shifting blog and the incredible conferences you and your team put together. They really are on a level all their own.

As we approach the next turning points in the ECM it seems that there are tremendous cross currents favoring both inflation and deflation. Given the extremely high debt rates of nearly every country in the world and even a large swath of the corporate world, some degree of moderate to even high inflation coupled with continuing low interest rates seems like the most likely path that central banks and governments will attempt to engineer. This path would avoid the deflation and societal instability that massive defaults would bring while quietly erasing the debt burden. I recognize, this path still leaves the pensions in a crisis, but that is a long slow problem primarily effecting a population group well past their prime years for fomenting revolt.

Of course the historical record shows that inflation is generally, perhaps even always, accompanied by high interest rates in the market.
I was wondering if there has been a historical precedent for moderate inflation (say 8-10% per year) combined with low interest rates on debt (sub 5%). It seems this would be the goldilocks path out of the increasingly ugly position in which the world finds itself. Leaving one to wonder if anyone has ever been able to accomplish such a combination for long? Any ideas how such a strategy would be accomplished, and what the probabilities are that our central bank and government will be able to pull it off?

Sincerely,

JU

ANSWER: This is why we really, really, really, really, need Socrates. There is no such precedent to which we can refer to in history because this is the first time post-World War II when governments have operated full-blown in this new age of Keynesian-Marxism. By that, I mean that interest rates were always a free market. It is true that there were usury caps to interest rates as far back as the Babylonian days. There was a distinction between lending in commodities and lending money. The former carried a maximum interest rate of 33.33%, whereas the latter the usury rate was 20% (Robert P. Maloney, “Usury and restrictions on interest-taking in the ancient Near East,” Catholic Biblical Quarterly 36.1 (Jan. 1974): 1-20.).

For whatever reason, there are those in the Deep State controlled by the New York banking oligarchy who really want us to shut off this research. They seem to believe that they can maintain everything as long as we keep quiet. That is absurd. What will be, will be. The free markets always win. We are in a very dangerous game here where the entire world is at risk because of a desperate attempt to manipulate the economy by maintaining artificially low interest rates to keep the government budgets in the West under control. This is going to fail!!!!!!

Instead of trying to reform, they are digging in their heels and attempting to keep a failed Quantitative Easing theory in play even after more than 10 years of obvious failure. As the Economic Confidence Model turns, everything they are trying to do will backfire. I have no doubt they will blame me, and once again, claim they would have succeeded but too many people listened to me. That is such a BS line, it is no longer funny. They can kill me and it will not change anything. The monetary system as we have known it will blow up in their face. This is IMPOSSIBLE to maintain.

You cannot keep interest rates at artificial lows and expect this game to continue. What will happen is there will be a great awakening. Once the serious money realizes the emperor has no clothes, they will lose all confidence of the people. The next 8.6-year wave will be inflationary because of a collapse in confidence. I am sure I will be the scapegoat and the fake news will keep that image in motion and support the Deep State as they always do. As they say, Bloomberg News has NEVER exposed the manipulations of the banking oligarchy. I even sent a copy about the SEC controlled by Goldman Sachs to David Glovin who will never report on the issue because their income is paid for by the same oligarchy. That is why we are on our own.

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July 15th, 2019

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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