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May 9, 2019 | US-China “Trade Deal” Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play)

If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we measure the retracement made in the pair from the low at 75.21 (instead of using the spike low the bar before) we are at a 78.6% retracement level; and 2) If we breakdown the move from the 80.71 high into three waves, we get a nice symmetrical A-B-C into the low, whereby Wave C=Wave A.  Additionally, the momentum oscillators are turning up from “oversold” territory.

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May 9th, 2019

Posted In: Black Swan Currency Currents

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