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April 14, 2019 | Japan’s Population in Record Decline: Startling Projections

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Japan’s native population declined by 430,000 people in 2018, a record 0.21%.

Japan is set to lose a midsize city, approximately the size of Austin Texas, every year according to a Financial Times report and stats from the IMF.

“The reason Japan’s population is now falling so fast is not the low birth rate but rather an increase in the number of deaths,” said Akihiko Matsutani, professor emeritus in applied economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

The population decline is despite record immigration.

Interesting Stats

  • There were 944,146 births in the year to October 2018 compared with 1,368,632 deaths.
  • Long-term projections suggest Japan’s population will fall to just 50 million in a hundred years. That’s the same population as a hundred years ago.

I suspect the long-term projections are hugely wrong. If so, Japan’s mountain of debt will pose a huge problem. Japan’s battle against deflation will turn into a battle against inflation.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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April 14th, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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