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April 2, 2019 | Collapse in Global Trade

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
International trade volumes are negative year-over-year for the first time since the great recession.

The Netherlands Bureau for for Economic Policy Analysis has an interesting report called the World Trade Monitor.

  • World trade volume increased 2.3% month‐on‐month (growth was ‐2.1% in December, initial estimate ‐1.7%). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in January are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.
  • World trade momentum was ‐1.8% (non‐annualized; ‐1.0% in December, initial estimate ‐0.9%).
  • World industrial production increased 0.0% month‐on‐month (‐0.1% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).
  • World industrial production momentum was 0.0% (non‐annualized; 0.4% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).

World Industrial Production

Those few bullet points and charts constitute the entire report.

The collapse in global trade is both telling and worrisome.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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April 2nd, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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