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March 27, 2019 | Goods and Services Trade Deficit Declines in Jan as Agricultural Exports Rise

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
China is again buying soybeans. US imports declined on falling demand. The trade deficit shrunk as a result.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the Goods and Services Trade Deficit was $51.1 billion in January, down $8.8 billion from $59.9 billion in December, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance

  • January exports were $207.3 billion, $1.9 billion more than December exports. January imports were $258.5 billion, $6.8 billion less than December imports.
  • The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.2 billion to $73.3 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.1 billion.
  • Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit decreased $1.9 billion, or 3.7 percent, from January 2018. Exports increased $6.1 billion or 3.0 percent. Imports increased $4.1 billion or 1.6 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages

  • The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.8 billion to $53.9 billion for the three months ending in January.
  • Average exports decreased $1.1 billion to $207.4 billion in January.
  • Average imports decreased $2.9 billion to $261.2 billion in January.
  • Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $2.5 billion from the three months ending in January 2018.

Exports

  • Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion to $137.4 billion in January.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.3 billion. Soybeans increased $0.9 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.2 billion. Passenger cars increased $0.7 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $0.8 billion. Civilian aircraft decreased $1.3 billion.
  • Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $70.0 billion.

Imports

  • Imports of goods decreased $6.5 billion to $210.7 billion in January.
  • Capital goods decreased $3.0 billion. Computer accessories decreased $0.9 billion. Semiconductors decreased $0.7 billion. Civilian aircraft decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.3 billion. Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.
  • Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $47.8 billion in January.

By Country Deficits

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($33.2), European Union ($13.1), Mexico ($7.2), Germany ($6.0), Japan ($5.3), Italy ($2.9), South Korea ($2.4), Taiwan ($2.2), India ($1.9), France ($1.2), OPEC ($0.2), Saudi Arabia ($0.1), and Singapore (less than $0.1).

Short Synopsis

  • Exports rose $1.8 billion led by soybeans, up $0.9 billion.
  • Imports fell by $6.5 billion. Capital goods accounted for $3.0 billion and crude another $1.4 billion.

Agricultural exports rose, buying of capital goods, crude, and imports of junk fell.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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March 27th, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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