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March 1, 2019 | GDPNow Initial Estimate of 1st-Quarter GDP: 0.3 Percent

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

The GDPNow initial forecast for 1st-quarter 2019 GDP is a minuscule 0.3%.

Once again we see a huge discrepancy between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Modeland the New York Fed Nowcast Model for first-quarter GDP.

The former is 0.3%, the latter 2.26%.

Pat Higgins at GDP now writes: “The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day.”

A check of the GFPNow spreadsheet has first quarter real final sales at 0.9%. That is the true bottom line estimate of the economy. The model estimates Change in Private Inventory (CIPI) at -0.6%. Inventories net to zero over time.

I will start a spreadsheet comparing GDPNow to Nowcast in a couple weeks. One data point does not make for a good graph.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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March 1st, 2019

Posted In: Mish Talk

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