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February 1, 2019 | Baltic Dry Index: down 47% YTD!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

Markets are slowing fast. The Baltic Dry Index (a measure of global trade activity) is now at 668…down some 47.44% for 2019. This index was 1377 on December 17, 2018. This reveals a rapid slowdown in trade mostly from China and Europe (the past 6 weeks). The USA is also starting a slowdown but our stock market refuses to reflect this reality. The Dow Index (a measure of computer trading) is now at 25,150 (as I write) up some 8% for the year. All this computer manipulation fools most pundits and the public.


BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index

What does all this mean for our future? My sense is that markets are slowing globally but the USA is not recognizing this slowdown as yet. Our stock markets continue to go UP even as the Global economy slows. All this will change, however, in a few weeks as investors recognize the TREND.
Today’s Wall Street Journal has many articles expressing the slowdown in China, Europe (Germany and Italy), and most of Asia. So far, the USA and Canada seem to be slowing but our stock markets are still being manipulated UP. This is what happens when ‘algorithms’ rule over our markets. Algorithms can trade as if all is well and without any human input (in real-time).
My sense is that we are at the end of a BULL expansion (now some 9.5 years). Our Big Boys at the Fed and Treasury may ignore all these realities given their many econometric models and mathematical manipulations but the REAL economy defies all their manipulations. Markets are SLOWING and this trend is now obvious.
Real estate is slowing, manufacturing is slowing, consumer spending is slowing, and global trade is slowing. Confidence is also starting to wane. The Baltic Dry Index seems to give me valid data for our global economy. It may be a leading indicator for what is emerging for all our global markets. Think for yourself to discern these realities.
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February 1st, 2019

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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