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February 7, 2019 | Realty Mean Reversion Started in Vancouver

Danielle Park

Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Some takeaways from the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), see Suddenly, there are tonnes of homes for sale in Vancouver and prices are coming down.:

    • the number of homes for sale jumped by 27.7% in January, compared to January 2018.
    • From December to January, homes for sale jumped 244% compared with an increase of 100% over the same period last year.
    • Sales dropped 39.3% in January 2019 compared with January 2018.
    • 6.8 out of every 100 detached homes on the market is now selling in any given month, and 13.6 out of every 100 condos.
    • The benchmark detached home price was $1.45 million in January 2019, down 150k or 9.1% in the past year. For condos the benchmark price was $658k down 1.9% in the past year, and 6.6% in the last 6 months.
    •  40,000 new housing units are expected to hit the market over the next two years.

Naturally, speculators and real estate sector workers are urging the government to do something to get prices leaping again–even as homes remain the most expensive ever relative to income. See Pressure mounts on OSFI to ease mortgage stress test.

The good news is that potential buyers are doing more looking with less urge to bite at any price, and this is a very positive development.  The government should not try to arrest a much needed mean reversion cycle for Canadian real estate.  Attempting to do so is counter-productive to savings accumulation and affordable housing–two pillars of economic (and social) strength and stability.

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February 7th, 2019

Posted In: Juggling Dynamite

2 Comments

  • Eddie says:

    Danielle great synopsis 100% agree with you. Unfortunately Trudeau + Morneau are desperate to get re-elected so no doubt they will throw a bone or two into the mix.

  • SirTalksAlot says:

    High end maybe a bit cheaper, and I hope your right. No deals in the valley that I can see and it’s the dead of winter. To the buyer those drops in condo values are a rounding error in a market that pretty much doubled since 2014. They may give the speculator pause but not a buyers market in my view.

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