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December 12, 2018 | Trap Sprung: Theresa May Survives Vote of No Confidence, What’s Next?

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Theresa May survives a Tory leadership challenge by a vote of 200-117 but at a price. She will not run for PM again.

The Telegraph reports Theresa May Survives No Confidence Vote but 117 Tory MPs Vote Against Her.

Theresa May has won the backing of her MPs to “finish the job” on Brexit after making a surprise promise to quit before the next general election. The Prime Minister won a confidence vote by 200 to 117, securing her immediate future, but undermined her own authority by starting a countdown towards her own resignation.

The number of MPs voting against her was also significantly higher than many predicted, raising significant doubts over whether her position remains safe in the long term. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the European Research Group leading efforts to topple Mrs May, described it as a “terrible result” for her.

She told Conservative MPs: “In my heart I would have loved to have led us into the next election, but I realize that we will need a new leader with new objectives for the 2022 election.”

Although she refused to give a date for when she will step down, the announcement fired the starting gun on a race to succeed her, with several Cabinet ministers already well advanced with their plans.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the European Research Group leading efforts to topple Mrs May, described it as a “terrible result” for her. He added: “She ought to go and see the Queen urgently and resign.”

Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab were the bookmakers’ favourites last night to be next Tory leader, with Sajid Javid and Michael Gove also among the front-runners.

Trap Sprung

Theresa May figured she would not last one way or another so she may as well step out with a method that gives her the best chance of getting Brexit done the way she wants.

There can be at most one party challenge per year. No matter what fool thing she says or does now, there cannot be another Tory vote of confidence.

There can, however, be a parliament-wide vote of no confidence. Ultimately, it is highly likely to come to that.

Labour and DUP can throw he out now, but each has their own problems as I wrote earlier today in Tory MPs Trigger a Vote of No Confidence: Did May Spring a Trap on Them?

Potential Trap (Laid Out Prior to the Vote)

  1. It was to May’s advantage to trigger a leadership challenge ASAP because it keeps her options open while closing the door for another year on a leadership challenge. A leadership challenge was coming. I am convinced May wanted it sooner rather than later. She got it.
  2. If May survives the challenge, by even one vote, Tories cannot hold another leadership confidence vote for a year, no matter what foolish thing she does.
  3. Corbyn had been hesitant to call for a parliament-wide motion of no confidence out of fear he loses. Instead, he clings to the notion May will be forced to resign.
  4. If May survives the Tory challenge, she would even be free to threaten to resign or call new elections unless the Tories back her preposterous deal.
  5. If we got to point four, the Tories would then either have to vote for her deal or risk elections. Labour is leading in the polls.
  6. May’s problem is the DUP. They may dump her triggering elections at any point.
  7. The DUP’s problem, if they do not do along with May, is the possibility a hard border.
  8. In the end, I think May is counting on points 7 and 5. But first she had to sucker a leadership challenge out of the Tories, which she just did.

Where Are We Now?

Point number 4 has now been settled. May is free to kiss the EU’s ass with impunity.

And rest assured she will cooperate 100% with the EU on a plan to placate or split Rebel Tories, DUP, and Rebel Labour MPs with words that likely will have no legal meaning.

Her worst enemy is the simple fact that a no-deal Brexit is the default scenario.

We are now precisely at point number 5.

At any time, May can threaten to step down triggering elections. DUP is in a box.

May’s gamble might not be successful, but it was the best chance she had to her horrible deal passed.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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December 12th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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