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December 31, 2018 | 2019 From a Fourth Turning Perspective

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall […]

December 31, 2018 | OPINION: The Great American conspiracy to sabotage Canadian oilpatch

Canada’s debilitating inability to gain fair market value for its largest export commodity – crude oil – has become the top economic story of 2018. It will likely dominate headlines in 2019, writes Stewart Muir. This article appeared in the Calgary Herald on Dec. 29, 2018. Link It’s so bad that heavyweight energy investors with large […]

December 31, 2018 | The Merkel & Macron Tag-Team – Surrender Sovereignty to Brussels

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Merkel has come out and said that “Nation states must today be prepared to give up their sovereignty.” This is what you have been saying that the agenda is to federalize Europe. Would you care to elaborate on her latest statement? Thank you from Berlin PH ANSWER: Merkel has stepped down as leader of the […]

December 31, 2018 | Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting. The rate probability curve for December 11, 2019 now slightly favors rate cuts over hikes according to CME Fedwatch Odds. There is a 13.4% chance of at least one cut vs. a 4.6% chance of at least one hike as […]

December 31, 2018 | Monster Rallies Part of Bear Markets – Beware

We are in a bear market, and a bear market is not just going to end in a couple of months considering the ten years of a bull market,” the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group said Thursday on “Futures Now. ” Boockvar, also a CNBC contributor, acknowledged the market has been grossly oversold. […]

December 31, 2018 | Expectations

Predictions are so 2016. When the world’s rocked by a single tweet and relevance is measured in clicks, nobody knows what’s coming. So why pretend? So let’s just focus on what’s reasonable to expect. More volatility, not more losses. The Vix spiked at the end of 2018 in a prelude of what could lie ahead, […]

December 31, 2018 | Silver Starts A Breakout Move Higher

Watch Silver, folks. This quiet shiny metal is starting a move that could be very foretelling of global market concerns and risks. Early on December 26, 2018, Silver broke through recent resistance, to the upside, with a relatively large 2.8%+ upside move. Why is this so important to traders? Because Silver is the “sleeper metal” […]

December 31, 2018 | Discovery Watch Picks and Pans for 2018

China may have the US by the throat when it comes to Rare Earths

December 30, 2018 | Der Spiegel Suspends Two Senior Editors for Not Catching Fake News

The major influential German news weekly, Der Spiegel, has suspended two of its senior editors following the scandal involving a reporter Claas Relotius admitted faking stories for years. Relotius, who is 33, resigned after admitting that he had made up stories and invented protagonists in more than a dozen articles in the magazine’s print and […]

December 30, 2018 | 116th Congress Starts January 3, Big Changes Coming, a Look at the Impacts

Republicans lost their majority in the House but Increased their majority in the Senate. Let’s discuss what that means. In the 116th Congress is scheduled to meet on January 3. House Makeup Republicans lost their Majority in the House which will make passing legislation much more difficult. There is [1] vacant seat that is in dispute, North […]

December 30, 2018 | Gold Mining Stocks Are Going Up Faster Than Gold

The past couple of years have been brutal for precious metals mining stocks. Gold and silver went down a little while the miners went down a lot – four times as much to be exact. That’s painful but not surprising. The miners, being in effect options on the underlying metals, tend to be a lot […]

December 30, 2018 | Bear Markets, Fed Mistakes, and Quick Shots from John

A winters day, In a deep and dark December… “Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually warm, and the sun is shining. Toto Shane, I don’t think we’re in Kansas Texas anymore.” Yes, we have actually moved from Texas to a new location. I’ll explain why and where […]

December 29, 2018 | A Quiet Day in the Precious Metals

29 December 2018 — Saturday YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM The gold price was up five dollars or by shortly after the London open on their Friday morning.  It was sold a bit lower at that juncture, but began to creep higher shortly after London closed — and gold finished the Friday session […]

December 29, 2018 | Why Does the Fed Need to Raise Rates?

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong I would like first to thank u for all the good information u give to us i have just a question : why do u write the fed need to increase rates to save the us pensionneers Not realy clear for me ( and maybe a lot of people) Thanks again and […]

December 29, 2018 | Inversions Galore!

The number of US Treasury bond inversions took a big leap today. I count 5 inversions, three of them with the 1-Yr bill. In this snapshot, the 5-year, 3-year, and 2-year treasury yields inverted with the 1-year yield. In addition, the 3-year yield inverted with the 2-year yield and the 3-month with the 1-month. Debt […]

December 29, 2018 | This Week in Money

December 29, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 29th

The Big Story for 2018 was the “topping out” of the global Central Bank accommodation that had buoyed asset markets around the world for nearly a decade. The Fed took the lead in the swing from easier to tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates and starting to run down their balance sheet. Asset markets took […]

December 28, 2018 | Why do Cycles Work?

ANSWER: That is a question I get often and it seems to me to be up there with is there God and what is the meaning of life? All I can say is the foundation of EVERYTHING is a cycle. Here is how sound travels known as the Doppler effect. Sunlight also travels in waves. Change the frequency and you […]

December 28, 2018 | Overall Liquidity is now Declining Globally! The Impact?

What is happening today is that overall money supply (liquidity) within our global markets is declining gradually. Borrowing is declining. Lending is declining. All this change in monetary policy which our Fed initiated back in 2015 is now starting to affect all our global markets. The big issue is this change in QE policies which started […]

December 28, 2018 | Huge Divergence Between the DOW Tran Index and Dept of Transportation Stats

Transportation is humming according to the US Bureau of Transportation. The Dow transportation index is another matter. A reader asked me to include the Dow Jones Transportation Index in my analysis of bear markets. That led me to Bureau of Transportation (BTS) data that I had not investigated before. Here are some charts I created from data […]

December 28, 2018 | Moister Mentality

Andrew and his squeeze are both 30, live in delusional Vancouver, read this troubled blog and earn $150,000 together. No debt. Nice. About $160,000 saved and invested. “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen you write about this,” he writes, “and since it is something we will be facing in the coming years I would be […]

December 28, 2018 | The Late Cycle Lament

GMO’s December letter The Late Cycle Lament is a must read for anyone with savings they would like to keep and grow going forward.  There are many excellent charts and clear-eyed insights on the present state of equity valuations, probable price paths and the capital-destructive myopia of most financial advisors and managers.  You can read the whole thing […]

December 28, 2018 | Gold and Gold Stocks

Interest Rates and The Fed

December 28, 2018 | CEO of American Manganese Gives a Brief Review on 2018

Better Outlook for 2019. Read New Atlas Article – “Elon Musk Promises 100 Percent European Supercharger Coverage Next Year“. Read  WorldCrunch Article – The Dirty Truth Behind Electric Vehicles…..”But what about battery materials? Ulbrich doesn’t seem to have anything new to say about the disposal of batteries. The truth is that there is still no […]

December 27, 2018 | Ready?

In about a week local real estate boards will bravely issue December stats. There could bear an uncanny resemblance to stock markets of late. 2018, it seems, has turned into the no-place-to-hide year your momma warned you about. At least equities don’t come with realtors, mortgages or illiquidity. Like in Calgary. Days-on-market there are creeping […]

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