November 6, 2018 | Wall Street Oddsmakers Feverishly at Work

It’s 8:24 p.m., and traders have yet to guess the outcome of the mid-term elections. The E-Mini S&Ps are up a few points, suggesting the results are perceived on Wall Street as a coin toss at the moment. We can expect traders to do much better this time in discounting the possibility of a big win for the Democrats, since the day began without the brash certitude about a Hillary victory that characterized election night coverage in 2016. My hunch is that if the E-Minis are up by 18 or more points later this evening, it will correctly signal that the Republicans have held onto their majority in both houses. Conversely, if the futures are down by 18 or more points, that will tell us — again, correctly — that the Republicans have lost the House and possibly the Senate.  There are some key Congressional districts causing index futures to fluctuate nervously as I write these words: Virginia’s 10th; Kentucky’s 6th; and Minnesota’s 3rd, to name just a few. Watch ’em and place your bets!

Rick Ackerman November 6th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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