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November 4, 2018 | Mortgage Rates Hit 7-Year High

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Bond yields jumped on Friday in response to a strong jobs report. Mortgage rates went along for the ride.

The average 30-year mortgage rate topped 5% on Friday to a Fresh 7-Year High.

Mortgage rates had a bad week and an especially bad day following a much stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Mortgage rates were already operating fairly close to long-term highs, but today’s move easily took them to new highs. The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5% for relatively ideal scenarios.

Those without a big down payment or without perfect credit/income can expect to see even higher rates. Most lenders ended up recalling the morning’s initial rate sheets and reissuing higher rates at least once today.

There’s really no silver lining apart from the fact that the higher rates go, and the quicker they get there, the closer we get to the point that the economy slows down as a result. When that happens, rates will begin to fall before just about anything else. Unfortunately, the expected time frame for such things is incredibly wide (not the sort of thing you hope for if you need to buy/refi). And yes… it’s also unfortunate that our one source of solace at the moment involves an economic downturn, but if you want low interest rates, that tends to come with the territory.

Many recessions start out as a housing bust. Another one may be in the works.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 4th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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