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November 30, 2018 | Here’s a 20-to-1 Bet for Friday

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

We can debate whether the U.S. is winning the trade war with China, and even whether Trump understands how tariffs work (which apparently he does not). But if the President comes away from this weekend’s planned G20 dinner with President Xi Jinping smiling his orange smile and boasting of a deal, the Dow Industrials will be up a thousand points on Monday. To be sure, this is a longshot bet. Although China’s already weakened economy has taken a big hit from U.S. levies on its exports, the Chinese government has adamantly refused compromise, even on matters where they have no case to argue, such as intellectual property theft. In this category China ranks as the most corrupt, brazenly dishonest –and successful — country on earth, a virtual nation of perps and spies. However, by not giving an inch on patents, they risk alienating the rest of the world, even the wussy suck-ups in Brussels. Trump’s judgment is that his commie-rat counterpart will fold — if not at Saturday night’s tête-à-tête with Xi in Argentina, then eventually. With China’s economy just short of nosediving, Xi is running out of time. Will he give Trump something to brag about over the weekend? Probably not. But we’ll be pleased to take the odds if index call options on Friday are priced, as we are nearly certain they will be, to give us a 20-to-1 bet on the pass line.

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November 30th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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