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November 30, 2018 | Gold, Oil, Interest Rates and Market Bubbles

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

Does the US Fed follow or set trends?

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Archives November 30th, 2018

Posted In: Radio


  • Glen says:

    Most interesting, cogent wisdom from Bob, perhaps his best ‘Bob Talk’ in years, in part because there was no politics. Will be fascinating to follow what happens in the markets over the next few years, understanding that these things get drawn out for very long periods. My memory goes back to 1974 when the Dow 30 were trading, overall, at ~6-7 times earnings, ~1 times book value, and yielding about 5% dividend. Astounding, yes, and the market has never come close since, even though the 2008-9 market tried hard. Those days MAY come again although it seems impossible right now. Like Bob says, you want to ‘trade’ the downswings and the rallies, rather than hold all the way down, because the ultimate predication or call may not quite get there or take such a long time which can shake out just about anyone except a guy like a reverse-programmed Warren Buffett. Great commentary, thanks.

    • Bob Hoye says:

      At bull market peaks, the late Richard Russell would observe that stocks were “going to great valuations”.
      Glen has provided the numbers.

  • Mike form Burbank California says:

    Question for Bob. From your technical and historical analyses, do you think that the 50 day moving average will hold as support for the DOW and the S&P in 2019? And if so, then will the market break that critical support in 2020 erasing Trump-era gains or will it be “off to the races” again in the equity markets to new all time highs?

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