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November 28, 2018 | Builder Speculation: Supply of New Homes for Sale Surges to 7.4 Months

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
As sales dwindle and interest rates rise, the number of unsold homes built on speculation has risen sharply.

Mortgage Rates Rising as Speculative Building Increases

Completed Homes for Sale in 2018

Observations

  • Supply of completed new homes has increased from 5.6 months to 7.4 months since January.
  • Current supply is the highest rate since March of 2011.
  • Builders are sitting on 74,000 completed homes built on speculation vs 63,000 in January.
  • On January 4, the 30-year mortgage rate was 3.95%. On November 15 it was 4.94%.
  • The Fed is committed to more rate hikes.

Please note that New Home Sales Dive 8.9% in October, Down 12.0% From Year Ago.

Meanwhile, Trump is committed to a trade war he cannot possibly win.

What can possibly go wrong with this picture?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 28th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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