Mortgage Rates Rising as Speculative Building Increases

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Completed Homes for Sale in 2018

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Observations

• Supply of completed new homes has increased from 5.6 months to 7.4 months since January.
• Current supply is the highest rate since March of 2011.
• Builders are sitting on 74,000 completed homes built on speculation vs 63,000 in January.
• On January 4, the 30-year mortgage rate was 3.95%. On November 15 it was 4.94%.
• The Fed is committed to more rate hikes.

Please note that New Home Sales Dive 8.9% in October, Down 12.0% From Year Ago.

Meanwhile, Trump is committed to a trade war he cannot possibly win.

What can possibly go wrong with this picture?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock