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October 21, 2018 | Wall of Worry Now Includes a Serious Downturn in Real Estate

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Existing-home sales continue to fall, increasing the odds that the aging stock-market bull has finally breathed its last. If so, the selloffs we’ve seen on Wall Street over the last few weeks have not been merely corrective, but the beginning of a bear market that promises to be as nasty as the bull has been giddy. Investors have shrugged off plenty of bad news since shares lifted from a deep trough in March 2009, but it’s hard to imagine they will be able to finesse an already protracted housing slump that threatens to grow even worse. The deterioration has gone on for seven straight months — the worst performance since 2014, when real estate was still recovering from the Great Financial Crash. With 30-year mortgages headed toward 5%, prospects of an upturn in housing in the coming months seem remote. The same factors are going to weigh heavily on the auto sector as well, since leases that effectively allow Americans to drive more car than they can afford are heavily dependent on easy credit and low rates. Incidentally, I foresee a dead-cat bounce in housing soon that could offer a high-leveraged play for traders. For explicit details, visit the Rick’s Picks Facebook page.

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October 21st, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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